For the weekend  01st Apr'22-Friday... Updated on 27.03.22, Sunday-8.01 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 17329.50 on Monday, it made a weekly low 17006.30 on Tuesday; thereafter, it moved up. made a weekly high 17442.40; further, it moved down till 17076 on Friday and closed the week at 17153 on a negative note with a weekly loss -134.05 points, i.e., -0.40%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices given a mixed performance; on positive side, the Nifty Metal lead with a weekly gain by 5.12%, followed by the Nifty Energy gained 2.09%, Nifty IT gained 1.43%, Nifty Pharma gained 0.45%, Nifty Healthcare gained 0.35% and  Nifty Infra closed with a marginal gain by 0.08%. On the other hand, the Nify FMCG closed on a negative note by -3.43%, followed by Nifty Financial Services lost -3.04%%, Nifty Bank lost -2.80%, Nifty Auto lost -2.10%, finally Nifty Realty lost -0.35%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 1.02% as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also closed on a positive note with a weekly gain  0.25%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, turned as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.5344.39 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.2820.72 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $75.96, it made a weekly low $75.92, on the same day; thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly low $76.61 on Wednesday, further it moved down till $76.13 and closed on a positive note $76.27 with a weekly gain 0.30 points i.e., 0.39%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $76.32-76.40, if moves and sustain above $76.40 then, the USD may re-test $76.46-76.53-76.61-76.70-76.80-76.90-77.05-77.13-77.22 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $76.18-76.08 then, it may re-visit $75.99-75.91-75.86-75.76-75.72-75.61-75.45-75.34-75.24 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, except the US Q4 GDP data; as well as, on the domestic front no major events are expected, except very few remaining India Inc. Q3 Oct-Dec'21) corporate earnings.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q3(Oct-Dec'21) corporate results, so far 4155 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q3 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has come down and moved to negative zone by -2.50% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 4155 companies were at Rs.231,322.30 crore, as against in the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) the Net profit seen Rs.237,320.70 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 38.70%, last year these 4155 companies made a Net profit Rs.166,796.20 crore, the net sales/income seen at 6.60%, when compared with last year in the same quarter but, QoQ basis the net sales/income gone up by 25%. All the Major Corporates already declared their Q3 results, except the few companies yet to declare their results.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has come down from $116.50 to $108.70 per barrel and hovering near $112.50, due to the ongoing war between Ukraine vs. Russia, lifted the Crude prices till $130 and it was consolidating between  $108-117, the USD vs INR also trades above $76, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices started to move up from last week so, far Rs.3-4 increased in Pertrol & Diesel prices, the same be increased further Rs.10-15 in the ensuing days.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week levels, i.e., 22.23 times and settled on Friday at 22.05 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index) last week, has gone up from 20.45 to 25.53 and settled at 23.43, as against the previous week levels, i.e., 22.61, this week also the intra volatility may be at an elevated level between 20-27.50 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the negative zone, out of 2188 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 4724 stocks advanced and 5904 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.80 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR also, moved to the negative zone at 0.90 times with 118 advances and 131 declines, this data infers that, some profit booking seen at the higher levels levels. on both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, also, the Nifty Bank Index ADR turned to the negative zone at 0.71 times with 25 advances & 35 declines, it infers that, the value buy seen in Banking stocks too.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a premium 41.05 points from the previous week premium level 35 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved down from the last week level 1.04 to 0.90. The more open interest seen 17300-17400 Call and 17000-16900 Put option any further movement above 17400 may take the Nifty Inex till 17600 to 17800, on the other hand, any weakness below 17000-16900 then, the Index may test 16700-1650 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: Last week, the Indian Indices were trading in a range bound move, especially the broad based Nifty50 Index trading between 17000-17450 levels and closed at 17153 on a weekly basis. The ensuing weeks the global stock market may track and monitor the developments of the Russian Vs. Ukraine war, the movement of the Crude oil price and Inflation numbers. Our Indian stock market also may follow the suit, the broad based Nifty Index must breach the narrow range high levels i.e., 17440 or to break the low levels i.e.,17000, to take a further directional move on either side, the important support and resistance for the Nifty index are given below:

By considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a flat to positive note near 17200-17250, subject to the Asian indices movement, if the index moves above 17250-17295 then, it may try to re-test 17355-17395-17440-17500-17555-17610-17670-17725-17795 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index unable to moves above 17295-17355 and moves below 17200-17160 levels; then, it may re-visit 17100-17010-16925-16885-16845-16810-16765-16705-16660-16555-16470 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened at 36845.85, on opening move, it made a weekly high 36827.70 thereafter, it moved down, made a weekly low 35203.85 and closed at 35410.10 with a weekly loss -1018.45 points, i.e., -2.80%, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above 35560-35650-35720 levels, further move above 35720 then, it may try to re-test 35855-35935-36020-36110-36190-36275-36400-36520-36660-36740-36825 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 35720-35855, further it moves below 35205-34980-34880 then, the Index may try to re-visit 34740-34625-34490-34340-34215-34090-33940 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested in the recent fall near 16000-15800, try to book full profit near 17400-17800 levels or if, the stocks that you have invested gives a profit 15-20% and wait for further fall and invest again in Nifty100 stocks at 16500-16000 levels in Nifty spot.

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