For the weekend 29th Oct'21-Friday... Updated on 24.10.21, Sunday-4.23 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note i.e., 18500.10 on Monday, it made a weekly high 18604.45 on Tuesday; thereafter, the Index moved down throughout the week, made a weekly low till 18034.35 on Friday and closed the week at 18114.90 on a negative note with a weekly loss 223.65 points, i.e., -1.22%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, almost all the major sectoral indices were closed with a negative note, barring Nifty Bank & Nifty Financial Services; on the negative side, the Nifty FMCG index leading with a weekly loss -6.05%, followed by the Nifty Metal lost -5.47%, Nifty Health lost -5.43%, Nifty Realty lost -5.31%, Nifty Pharma lost -5.29%, Nifty Auto lost -3.10%, Nifty Infra lost -2.44%, Nifty Energy lost -1.96%, finally Nifty IT lost -0.98%. On the other hand, Nifty Financial Services & Nifty Bank closed with a weekly gain 4.35% & 2.50%, respectively. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -4.37% as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a negative note  with a weekly loss -5.37%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, turned as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.7940.78 crore on the net basis; as well as, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's also, continued as a net seller, they sold to the tune of Rs.4504.40 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $75.02, made a weekly high $75.48 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved down and made a weekly low $74.69 on Thursday, further it moved up till  $75.11 and closed the week with a negative note at $74.99. This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $75.08-75.11, if moves and sustain above $75.11 then, the USD may re-test $75.17-75.25-75.31-75.35-75.39-75.49-75-58-75.69 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.87-74.75 then, it may re-visit $74.69-74.57-74.45-74.34-74.27 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as, on the domestic front except the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings this week, already major top Nifty50 companies announced their Q2 numbers.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 259 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit maintaining on the positive zone by 9.30% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 259 companies were at Rs.69,565.10 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.63,670.80 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 23.10%, last year these 259 companies made a Net profit Rs.56,536.20 crore. This week, Colgate, HDFC AMC, Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Cipla, Bajaj Auto, Indus Ind Bank, ITC, Maruti Suzuki, SBI Life Insurance, Tata Chemicals, Titan, Zee Entertainment, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Holdings, DLF, Tata Power, Adani Power, Adani Transport, Dr Reddy Lab, Escorts, Exide, Gail, JSW Energy, Vedanta, Voltas, IOC and other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a downtrend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive around 15-16k, the number of active cases now at 172,594 the death toll rose to 454,269, the daily death rate has moved up above 500 in a day, from the last week level from 160-170, this sharp up move is due to a sudden rise in the state of Kerala, the death rate moved up above 440. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 102.11 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 71.57 crore and second dose 30.54 crore. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $80 to $84.20 per barrel with upward bias and hovering near $84, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to move up and sell above Rs.107-110 mark and Diesel price is also moved up above Rs.100-105;, since the International Crude price hovering near $84 and USD Vs.INR is also hovering around $74-75, hence, the oil marketing companies continue to rise the Petrol and Diesel prices.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week levels, i.e., 28.02 times and  settled on Friday at 27.48 times, the profit booking cum sell-off across the segment dragged the Nifty Index near 18k mark, since the PE also has come down till 27.48.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a negative zone, out of 2091 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 3558 stocks advanced and 6564 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.54 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has seen in a negative zone at 0.58 times with 92 advances and 158 declines, this data infers that, the profit booking seen in the Nifty50 stocks and NSE listed stocks. At the same time the Nifty Bank Index ADR is seen at 2 times with 40 advances & 20 declines.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty future was settled at a premium 29.65 points from the last week premium level 16.45 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as of Friday at 9994800 i.e.,199896 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 12176000 i.e., 243520 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has come down marginally to 0.86, from the last week level, i.e., 0.87, the maximum open interest seen in 17900-17800 PUT option and 18200-18300 CALL options, it indicates the Nifty may face a strong hurdle near 18300 and 17900-17800 levels, may act as a strong support, further weakness only below 17800 levels, likewise any further up move is possible only if, the index moves and close above 18300 levels, this week.

This week Nifty Trend: Nifty Index as written and expected  last week, the technical correction dragged the Nifty Index till our threshold support levels, i.e., 18050, made a weekly low on Friday 18034.35 and closed well below 18350 levels. By considering the above mentioned micro, macro data and other factors I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a mild positive note to test 18150-18200-18250 subject to the Asian indices movement if, moves above 18250 then, the pullback rally may lift the index to test till 18350-18440-18540-18600 levels this week. On the other hand, if the Index unable to trade above 18200-18250 levels and moves below 18100-18050-18000 levels then, the weakness may drag the Index till 17950-17890 levels further, sell-off below 17890 then, the Index may re-visit 17790-17620-17450 levels in the near term. We can expect a broad based consolidation between 18000-17900 on the lower side and 18450-18600 levels on the higher side for the time being; further move is depends on violating either of these ranges, will dictate the further trend, hence trade with due caution, the India Inc. Q2 remaining results, International Crude Oil price and Global cues may drive the Nifty index this week and can expect a high intraday volatility due to F&O Expiry and month-end factor.

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who booked profit near 18550-18600, try to invest partially in the Nifty50 stocks around 18100-17900 levels and Invest more at 17600-17400 levels with a short term perspective to gain 5-10-15%.

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