For the weekend 31st Dec'21-Friday... Updated on 26.12.21, Sunday-9.00 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 16824.15 on Monday, it made a weekly low 16410.20 and moved up, rest of the week, made a weekly high 17155.60 on Friday and closed the week at 17003.75 on a flat to positive note with a weekly gain 18.55 points, i.e., 0.11%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, the major sectoral indices have given mixed performance, on the negative side, the Nifty Bank lead with a weekly loss -1.91%, followed by the Nifty Financial Services lost -1.87%, Nifty Energy lost -0.73%, Nifty Auto lost -0.63% and Nifty Infra lost marginally by -0.22%. On the other hand, the Nifty IT index lead with a gain 2.95%, followed by Nifty Pharma gained 1.97%, Nifty Health gained 1.73%, Nifty FMC gained 1.31% and Nifty Metal & Nifty Realty gained marginally by 0.29% & 0.28%, respectively. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -1.09%, as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index  closed on a flat note at the same place, where it was ended last week. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.6589.03 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.6915.56 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $76.04, made a weekly high $76.17 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved down throughout the week, made a weekly low $74.97 on Friday and closed $75.16 with a weekly loss -0.88, i.e., -1.16%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $75.23-75.34, if moves and sustain above $75.34 then, the USD may re-test $75.45-75.49-75.66-75.74-75.82-75.93-76.06-76.17 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.97-74.91 then, it may re-visit $74.79-74.72-74.65-74.60-74.52-74.45-74.30 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except remaining Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings this week, already all major top  companies announced their Q2 numbers, except the few corporates yet to announce their results.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 4115 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 37.60% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 4115 companies were at Rs.238,479.50 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.173,356.90 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 54.60%, last year these 4115 companies made a Net profit Rs.154,303.70 crore. Almost all major Corporates declared their Q2 results, this week other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a downtrend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive below 7k, the number of active cases now at 76,766 the death toll rose to 479,682, the daily death rate has come down to below 200 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 141.37 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 83.55 crore and second dose 57.82 crore. The Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron has been spreading all over the world, jitter across the global countries, India's Omicron count rose to 415 as of Saturday. According to the World Health Organisation, the new variant is less lethal but likely to spread at a higher speed hence, we must wait and watch the further development.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $66.30 to $73 per barrel with upward bias and hovering near $73 and USD vs INR also, trading  between $74-75 hence, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for couple of month.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved up marginally. from the last week levels, i.e., 23.43 times and settled on Friday at 23.45 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index), last week has come down from the previous week levels, i.e., 16.34 to 16.15. It seems, this week the intra volatility may be in a moderate level between 17-12 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the positive zone, out of 2157 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 5409 stocks advanced and 5100 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 1.06 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has moved to the positive zone at 1.08 times with 130 advances and 120 declines, this data infers that, some value buying seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, at the same time, the Nifty Bank Index ADR continued to be in the negative zone at 0.76 times with 26 advances & 34 declines, it infers that, some selling pressure seen in Banking & Financial stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a flat to a marginal premium 0.05 points from the previous week premium level 38.30 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as on Friday at 9415350 i.e.,188307 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 10921600 i.e., 218432 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved up from the last week level 0.94 to 0.98, the maximum open interest seen in 16900 PUT and 17200 CALL option, it indicates the Nifty may take further direction if moves and closes above 17200 to test 17300-17400 levels, further down move possible only below 16900 levels to re-visit 16700-16400 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The coming week, the Nifty may consolidate this week with a broad range between 16400-17400 levels, it seems for time being the Index may take support near 16400 levels. By considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note at 17035-17070, subject to the Asian indices movement, if moves above 17070 then, the pull back rally may continue to re-test 17155-17225-17305-17380-17450 levels. On the other hand, if the Index fails to move above 17155-17225 and moves below 16960-16910 then, it may try to re-visit 16880-16790-16700-16655-16485-16410-16375-16225-16075 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 35124.35. on opening move, it made a weekly low 34018.45 thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high 35477.30, further sell-off dragged once again till 34583.40 and closed at 34857.15 with a weekly loss -678 point, i.e., -1.91%,  this week , the Nifty Bank Index must move above 35050-35170 levels, further move above 35170 then, it may try to re-test 35250-35330-35475-35580-35800-36000-36220-36380-36535 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 35170-35330, further it moves below 34870-34670 then, the Index may try to re-visit 34580-34360-34190-34115-34020-33930 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested in the recent fall near 16600-16400 levels, try to book partial profit near 17100-17300 levels or the stocks that you have bought gives a profit between 3-6% and wait for the move either to book full profit or to re-invest near 16400-16200 in Nifty100 stocks.

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