For the weekend 26th Nov'21-Friday... Updated on 21.11.21, Sunday-6.09 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 18014.95 on Monday, the Index unable to continue the pull back rally above our threshold resistance levels, i.e., 18225, it moved up and made a weekly high 18210.15 on the opening day thereafter, the sell-off dragged the index throughout the week till our threshold support levels, i.e., 17660-17610, made a weekly low 17688.50 on Thursday and closed the week at 17764.80 on a negative note with a weekly loss -337.95 points, i.e., -1.87%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, almost all the major sectoral indices ended in a negative note, except the Nifty Auto & Nifty Healthcare,  on the negative side, the Nifty Metal closed with a weekly loss -5.32%, followed by the Nifty Realty lost -3.26%, Nifty Infra lost -2.74%, Nifty Pharma lost -2.13%, Nifty  Bank lost -1.95%, Nifty Financial Services lost -1.95%, Nifty Energy lost -1.71,  Nifty IT lost -0.90% and Nifty FMCG lost marginally by -0.12%. On the other hand, the Nifty Auto & Nifty Nifty Healthcare gained marginally by 0.35% & 0.01%, respectively. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -2.05% as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -1.26%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.4410.90 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.7001.31 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.35, made a weekly high $74.53 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved down and made a weekly low $74.02 on Thursday, further moved up and closed on a negative note at 74.31 with a weekly loss -0.12, i.e., -0.16%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $74.36-74.43, if moves and sustain above $74.43 then, the USD may re-test $74.48-74.52-74.59-74.67-74.74-74.85-74.96-75.06-75.17 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.17-74.07-74.01 then, it may re-visit $73.94-73.88-73.83-73.74-73.60 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as, on the domestic front except, remaining Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings this week, already major top Nifty50 companies announced their Q2 numbers.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 3757 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 37.20% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 3757 companies were at Rs.239,830.50 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.174,790.30 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 54.40%, last year these 3757 companies made a Net profit Rs.155,305.20 crore. Almost all major Corporates declared their Q2 results, this week other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a downtrend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive below 10k, the number of active cases now at 122,714 the death toll rose to 465,662, the daily death rate hovering around 300 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 116.61 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 76.55 crore and second dose 40.06 crore. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved down from $80.65 to $75.15 per barrel with downward bias and hovering near $76 and USD vs INR also, trading at $74 hence, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes in the last few weeks.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week levels, i.e., 25.98 times and  settled on Thursday at 24.51 times, this is due to the, ongoing short term price correction and Q2 good performance of the India Inc. The India Vix (Volatility Index), last week has moved up till 16.15, further it made a low 12.08 and settled on Thursday at 14.86. It seems, this week the intra volatility may be in a high note, if the Vix moves above 15.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a negative zone, out of 2143 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 3370 stocks advanced and 4913 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.69 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has seen in a negative zone at 0.40 times with 57 advances and 143 declines, this data infers that, more selling pressure seen in the Nifty50 stocks rather than NSE listed stocks, also the Nifty Bank Index ADR has moved down to the negative zone at 0.30 times with 11 advances & 37 declines.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled at a premium 28.10 points from the previous week premium level 30.70 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as of Thursday at 9860850 i.e.,197217 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 10088800 i.e., 201776 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) maintaining at the last week level at 0.83 without any changes from the last week level, i.e., 0.83, the maximum open interest seen in 17600-17300 PUT and 17900 CALL options, it indicates the Nifty may take support 17600-17300 levels and may face strong resistance at 17900-18000 levels, further weakness only below 17300 levels, likewise any further up move is possible only if, the index moves and close above 18000 levels, this week.

This week Nifty Trend: The coming week, the index may witness more down side selling pressure, due to the elevated Inflation levels, the recent announcement on withdrawal of the three major Agricultural new farm law bills by the Union Govt.,  and global cues (especially, the US FED slow tapering move, may dry the inflow into the Indian equity market, it was evident  by the recent equity outflow by FIIs) and F&O expiry; may dictate terms this week on the Indian Equity market, by considering these factors, the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a negative note at 17745-17725-17690, subject to the Asian indices movement, if moves below 17690 then, it may try  to re-visit 17650-17615-17550-17475-17450-17360-17300 levels. On the other hand, if the Index take support at our threshold levels, i.e., 17650-17600 and moves above 17800 then, it may try to re-test 17850-17940-18050-18150-18210-18360 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened at 38849.45, on opening move, it made a weekly high 39117.15; thereafter, it moved down, made a weekly  low 37748.45 and closed 37976.25, this week, the Index must take support 37700-37460 levels, any weakness below 37460 then, it may try to re-visit 37350-37150-36875-36780-36525 levels. On the other hand, any pull back rally near 37700-37460 then, the Index  may try to re-test 38120-38240-38350-38425-38600-38720-38950 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who booked profit near 18200 levels, try to invest in a partial manner near 17450-17360-17250 levels in the Nifty50 stocks on a short to medium term perspective to gain 5-10%.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading.