For the weekend 09th Sep'21-Thursday... Updated on 05.09.21, Sunday-6.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 16775.85; on the opening day i.e., Monday, it made a weekly low 16764.85 thereafter, it moved up and surpassed 17000 levels, made a weekly high 17340.10 on Friday and closed the week at 17323.60 on a positive note with a weekly gain 618.40 points i.e., 3.70%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices closed on a positive note, on the positive side, the Nifty Realty index was leading with a weekly gain by 10.76%, followed by the Nifty Energy gained 4.97%, Nifty Metal gained 4.13%, Nifty Pharma gained 3.85%, Nifty FMCG gained 3.62%, Nifty Financial Services gained 3.48%, Nifty Auto gained 3.38%, Nifty Bank gained 3.18%, finally Nifty IT gained 1.69%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 4.89%; as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a positive note  with a weekly gain 4.05%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, turned as a net buyer in the Equity segment, this week they bought to the tune of Rs.6867.73 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, turned as a net seller, they sold to the tune of Rs.1421.12 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds inflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $73.46, made a weekly high $73.57 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved down throughout the week, made a weekly low $72.90 on Wednesday and closed the week with a negative note at $72.99. This week, the USD Vs INR should take support near $72.90-72.72 if moves and sustain below $72.72 then, the USD may re-visit $72.66-72.59-72.50-72.41-72.33-72.27 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves above $73.06-73.16 then, it may re-test $73.29-73.44-73.57-73.63-73.75 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as on the domestic front, except the India IIP data and remaining India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results and Covid third wave developments, we must watch this week. 

Q1-2021-2022 Earnings: The India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results, so far 3999 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q1 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop and continued in the negative zone by -14.30% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 3999 companies were at Rs.173,244.80 crore, as against in the Q4 (Jan-Mar'21) the Net profit seen Rs.202,089.80 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 410.30%, last year these 3999 companies made a Net profit Rs.33,948 crore. Till last week, almost all major corporate companies declared their Q1(2021-2022) results, this week the rest of the midcap/small cap sector companies will declare their Q1 numbers.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive below 30k mark, the number of active cases now at 410,048 the death toll rose to 440,533 the daily death rate has moved down below 400 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, if the daily positive numbers are down steadily, may be from September, the Covid infected numbers may rise due to the ensuing festive sessons across the India. The vaccination drive happens in a full swing (as on date, the vaccination status stands at 71.62 crore).  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has gone up $67.10 to $70.65 per barrel and hovering around $69-70, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to sell above Rs.100-102 mark without any major changes, though the International Crude price hovering around $62-69, but the USD Vs.INR is hovering at $73-74, hence, the oil marketing companies started to reduce petrol price and Diesel price marginally.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has gone up from the last week level i.e., 25.60 times and  settled on Friday at 26.54 times. The lower PE valuation around 25-27 times, is due to the changes have been made in the PE calculation i.e., from an existing pattern of standalone profit to the consolidated profit and Nifty50 stocks Q4 good numbers when compared with last year at the same quarter.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a positive zone, out of 2084 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5695 stocks were advanced and 4309 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.32 times; as well as, the Nifty50 stocks ADR also continued in the positive zone at 2.32 times with 174 advances and 75 declines, this data infers that, more buying interest seen in the Nifty50, rather than, NSE listed stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty future was settled at a premium by 5.75 points from the last week premium level 12.75 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as of Friday at 13418250 i.e.,268365 contracts, when compared with the last week level 14897250 i.e., 297945 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has gone up marginally from 0.84 to 0.84, the maximum open interest seen in 17400-17300 PUT option and 17700-17800 CALL option, it indicates this week, the Nifty may face strong hurdle at 17700-17800 levels and 17300 may act as a support, further weakness below 17300 may drag the Nifty index till 16900-16800 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: Nifty Index as written last week, surpassed above 17k and made a fresh all time high 17340 and closed well above 17300 levels. By considering the above mentioned micro, macro data and other factors, I conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note to test 17340-17375-17390 if, moves above 17390 then, it may try to test till 17500-17555-17650-17750-17825 levels in the near term. On the other hand, the Index may take support 17270-17210 levels, any weakness below 17210 then, the Index may re-visit 17155-17055-16950-16915-16880-16765 levels very soon. The index may witness a technical sell-off cum profit booking till 17000-16700 levels, since the Index is trading at overbought zone, trade with due caution at the higher levels and adopt the buy on dips strategy.

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who re-invested again 16400 levels, start to book full profit near 17300-17700 levels and wait for the further down move to re-invest in the Nifty50 stocks with a short term perspective to gain a profit 5-15% when the Nifty Index comes near 17000-16800 levels.

Further details please do call us on 98410 48022 or contact thro' WhatsApp: 99624 70636. Please read carefully, the Disclaimer published on the Disclaimer page.

Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading