For the weekend 12th Nov'21-Friday... Updated on 07.11.21, Sunday-6.10 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note, i.e., 17783.15 on Monday, it moved down and made a day low till 17697.10 on the same day, thereafter, the pull back rally lifted the index and made weekly high 18012.25 on Tuesday; further, the Index moved down till 17757 and closed the week at 17916.80 on a positive note with a weekly gain 245.15 points, i.e., 1.39%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices were closed with a positive note, the Nifty Realty Index leading with a weekly gain 9.90%, followed by the Nifty Infra gained 2.79%, Nifty IT gained 2.69%, Nifty Metal gained 2.42%, Nifty Auto gained 2.41%, Nifty Energy 1.50%, Nifty FMCG gained 1.28%, Nifty Bank gained 1.17%, Nifty Financial Services gained 1.07%, Nifty  Healthcare gained 0.91%, finally Nifty Pharma gained marginally by 0.50%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 3.19% as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 2.53%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.686.85 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.343.26 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.92, made a weekly high $75.18 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved down and made a weekly low $74.16 on Friday and closed the week with a negative note at $74.19. This week, the USD vs INR should take support at $74.16-74.07, if moves and sustain below $74.07 then, the USD may re-visit $73-98-73.87-73.74-73.61--73.47-73.33 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves above $74.23-74.40 then, it may re-visit $74.47-745-74.61-74.67-74.73-74.79-74.88-74.96-75.06-75.17 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as, on the domestic front except India's IIP data & Annual Inflation data and remaining Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings  this week, already major top Nifty50 companies announced their Q2 numbers.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 1281 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 21.30% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 1281 companies were at Rs.173,383.90 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.142,915.30 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 27.30%, last year these 1281 companies made a Net profit Rs.136,210.10 crore. This week, BHEL, IFDFC, M&M,  Power Grid, India Cements and other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a downtrend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive around 12-15k, the number of active cases now at 144,845 the death toll rose to 460,791, the daily death rate is between 450-500 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 108.21 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 73.94 crore and second dose 34.27 crore. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved down from $84.80 $ 78.30 per barrel with downward bias and hovering near $81, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to move up, however the Union Govt reduced the Excise Duty, followed up by several State Govts also, reduced their VAT to brought down the Petrol & Diesel prices, hence the Petrol is selling near Rs.100-103 and Diesel is selling around Rs.90 per litre.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has gone up from the last week levels, i.e., 25.71 times and  settled on Friday at 26.11 times, the Nifty Index moved up by the pull back rally near 18k, hence the PE also has gone up above 26 times.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a positive zone, out of 2092 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5284 stocks advanced and 2791 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 1.89 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has seen in a positive zone at 1.80 times with 128 advances and 71 declines, this data infers that, value buy seen in the Nifty50 stocks and NSE listed stocks, also the Nifty Bank Index ADR is also moved to positive zone at  1.31 times with 27 advances & 20 declines.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled at a marginal discount -0.10 points from the previous week premium level 43.65 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as of Friday at 10329900 i.e.,206958 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 1074370 i.e., 214874 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has come down to 0.75, from the last week level, i.e., 0.91, the maximum open interest seen in 17800 PUT and  18100 CALL options, it indicates the Nifty may trade with consolidation mode between 17800-18200 levels, further weakness only below 17800 levels, likewise any further up move is possible only if, the index moves and close above 18000 levels, this week.

This week Nifty Trend: Nifty Index as written and expected last week, traded with consolidation mode between 17700-18000 and closed well below 17950 levels. By considering the above mentioned micro, macro data and other factors I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a flat to positive note at 17950-17985, subject to the Asian indices movement, to test 18015-18065-18125-18170-18250-18340 levels, further pull back rally above 18340 then, it may try to re-test 18400-18520-18600 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to trade above 17985-18015-18065 levels and moves below 17900-17860 levels then, the weakness may drag the Index till 17810-17765-17700-17660-17615 levels further, sell-off below 17610 then, the Index may re-visit 17500-17450-17330 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank traded till 40160, further it moved down till 39304 and closed at 39514, this week it may try to re-visit till 39300-39100, further weakness below 39100, the weakness may drag the Nifty Bank Index till 38960-38830-38650-38430 levels. On the other hand, it may face resistance near 39775-40000 levels further, move above 40000 it may try to re-test 40160-40320-40530-40680-40830-41100 levels.

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who Invested near 17700 levels try to book partial profit near 18000-18300 levels or the stocks, you have invested gives 3-5% profit and wait for further upmove or any further dip to invest again.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading.