For the weekend  16th Oct'20-Friday... Updated on 11.10.20, Sunday-06.03 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened with positive note at 11487.80, our expected opening band i.e, 11450-11495, it made a weekly low at 11452.30 on the opening day, thereafter the index moved up throughout the week beyond  our resistance level i.e., 11870, made a day high at 11938.60 and closed at 11914.20 with a weekly gain by 497.25 points i.e., 4.36%. 

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 12th Oct'20, on flat note with positive bias, subject to the Asian market move, to test 11950-11990, if open and sustain above 11990 then, the Index may try to test 12030-12070-12090-12120-12150-12240 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 11860-11790 any further weakness below 11790 then, the Index may re-visit 11680-11620-11575-11450-11305 levels.

Key Events: This week, no major key events are expected on the Global front at the same time, the major key events in the domestic front are: the Q2 (Jul-Sep'20) India Inc. quarterly results, the resuls season kick started by the IT conglomerate i.e., TCS, declared its Q2 results, the numbers were up to the market expectation on QoQ basis, it made a net profit 6.66% more than the Q1 net profit, also TCS announced a buy back on its own shares worth about Rs.16000 crores, after the TCS results, the positive momentum seen in other IT stocks too, this week we can expect more IT majors Q2 results, they are: Wipro (12th Oct), Infosys (14th Oct), HCL (16th Oct) and HDFC Bank will annouce their Q2 results on 17th Oct. The Supreme court further hearing on the Interest on Interest waiver case, postponed to 13th Oct'20, since the Union Government sought the time to file an additional affidavit, may be the final verdict we can expect this week. The India IIP & annual Inflation data are expected to announce on 12th Oct'20-Monday and the WPI Inflation data are expected on 14th Oct'20-Wednesday, these events may impact and influence the equity market coming week. The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, last week once again moved up and peaked on Friday to the all time high at 34.71 times. 

RBI bi-monthly meet highlights:  Last week on 09th Oct, the RBI MPC met for the bi-monthly policy decision and maintained the status quo on the repo rate to the same level at 4%. Under the targeted long-term repo operations (TLTROs) measures, the Reserve Bank of India will conduct on-tap TLTRO with tenors of up to three years for a total amount of up to Rs 1 lakh crore at a floating rate linked to the policy repo rate, these new measures such as on-tap TLTRO of Rs 1 lakh crore, among others will reduce the cost of borrowing for NBFCs and further ease access to liquidity for the NBFC Industry.

Besides, in order to give a fillip to real estate sector, the RBI decided to rationalise the risk weights and link them to LTV (loan to value) ratios for all new housing loans sanctioned up to March 31, 2022, keeping in view the role of real estate sector in generating employment and economic activity. Rationalising the risk weighting of all new home loans will see the risk of new loans to be linked only to the LTV ratio. Under the extant regulations, differential risk weights are applicable to individual housing loans, based on the size of the loan as well as the loan-to-value ratio.

Special Mention: Last week, the Nifty Index able to take strong support near 11450, further it surpassed above the threshold level i.e., 11795, moved and tested beyond 11900 and closed the week well above 11795. By considering the above mentioned key events, which infers that the positive momentum may continue this week till 12030-12090-12130-12220 levels. At the same time there are some concerns about the valuation i.e, Price Earnings, the current PE 34.71 times is the unprecedented levels, also the recent no-stop upmove without any correcton from the low level i.e, 10790 and gaining two consecutive weeks, may lead to the minor correction at least till 11795-11620-11500 levels in the near term i.e., before reaching beyond 12k mark. Let see, how it opens on Monday at 11950-11990 levels. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, almost the major sectoral Indices were traded on the positive territory and closed in green with positive bias, the Nifty IT Index lead the weekly gain by 8.59% followed by, Nifty Bank gained 7.20%, Nifty Auto gained 2.48%, Nifty pharma marginally gained 1.87%, at the same time, the Nifty Energy, Nifty Realty and Nifty FMCG were lost marginally by -1.43, -0.29%, -0.12%, respectively. Nifty mid cap index closed with marginal loss i.e, -0.19% & Nifty small cap index closed with positive note by 0.27%.

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week turned as a net buyer in the Equity segment,  they bought to the tune of Rs.3344.26 crores on the net basis whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, turned as a net seller, they sold to the tune of Rs.2389.43 crores on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, the FIIs once again started the inflow in to the Indian equity market, looks they may continue the inflow for some more time, we should wait and watch, how they behave coming week.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR depreciated from the weekly high level i.e.,$73.71 and dragged down till $72.95, closed on Friday at $72.94, further depreciation depends on breaking below $72.89 on the lower side, it looks this week it may test $72.89-72.71-72.40 levels any further down move below $72.40 then, it may test $72.30-72.05. On the other hand, the resistance seen at $73.28, above this level, it may try to re-test $73.55-73.71-73.83-73.92-74.04-74.44.

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who invested during recent sell-off when the Nifty inded traded at 10800, continue to book profit, if the Nifty index not moves above 11900-12070 levels and start to re-invest i.e, adopt Buy on dips strategy, if Nifty Index test 11500-11300 levels, to trade for short term gains, rather to wait for the long term basis.

Further details please do call us on 98410 48022 or contact thro' whatsapp: 99624 70636. Please read carefully, the Disclaimer published on the Disclaimer page.

Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading.

unprecedented

/?n?pr?s?d?nt?d/

Learn to pronounce