For the weekend 04th Mar'22-Friday... Updated on 27.02.22, Sunday-10.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 17192.25 on Monday, it made a weekly high 17351.05 on the same day; thereafter, it moved down. made a weekly low 16203.25; further, the Index moved up till 16748.80 and closed the week at 16658.40 on a negative note with a weekly loss -617.90 points, i.e., -3.58%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices closed on the negative note, the Nifty Infra lead with a weekly loss by -4.92%, followed by the Nifty Auto lost -4.60%, Nifty Energy lost -3.87%, Nifty Realty lost -3.40%, Nifty FMCG lost -3.30%, Nifty Bank lost -3.11%, Nifty IT lost -2.92%, Nifty Financial Services lost -2.83%, Nifty Metal lost -2.76%, Nifty Pharma lost -2.34%, finally, the Nifty Healthcare lost -2.08%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -4.63% as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -5.27%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.19843.52 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.21251.82 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.68, it made a weekly low $74.35 on the same day; thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high $75.90 on Thursday and closed on a positive note $74.57 with a weekly gain 0.70 points i.e., 0.94%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $75.34-75.44, if moves and sustain above $75.44 then, the USD may re-test $75.56-75.64-75.56-75.64-75.72-75.81-75.90-76.00-76.11-76.21-76.32 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $75.26-75.20 then, it may re-visit $75.09-74.93-74.71-74.74.52-74.37-74.27-74.18 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except the India GDP data for Q3(Oct-Dec.21) and PMI datas for Manufacturing/Services and remaining India Inc. Q3 Oct-Dec'21) corporate earnings.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q3(Oct-Dec'21) corporate results, so far 4140 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q3 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has come down and moved to negative zone by -2.60% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 4140 companies were at Rs.231,204.50 crore, as against in the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) the Net profit seen Rs.237,281.20 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 38.70%, last year these 4140 companies made a Net profit Rs.166,695.40 crore, the net sales/income seen at 6.50%, when compared with last year in the same quarter but, QoQ basis the net sales/income gone up by 38.70%. All the Major Corporates already declared their Q3 results, except the few companies yet to declare their results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 spread started to move southward direction, as of today the country everyday covid positive cases have come down below 15k, the number of active cases also came down to 111,472, the death toll rose to 513,724, the daily death rate also has come down below 300 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 177.44 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 96.39 crore, second dose 81.79 crore and pre-caution dose around 1.99 crore.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $89-100.50 per barrel and hovering near $92, due to the ongoing war between Ukiane vs. Russia, lifted the Crude prices above $100, the USD vs INR also trading near $75, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for a couple of months, due to ensuing state election in UP, Punjab.Uttrakhand, Manipur and Goa, all these elections may be held during Feb & Mar'22.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down, from the last week levels, i.e., 22.21 times and settled on Friday at 21.42 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index) last week, has gone up till 33.97 and settled at 26.74, as against the previous week levels, i.e., 26.74, this week also the intra volatility may be at an elevated level between 23-34 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the negative zone, out of 2200 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 4153 stocks advanced and 6640 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.83 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR also, moved to the negative zone at 0.63 times with 151 advances and 99 declines, this data infers that, the profit booking seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, also, the Nifty Bank Index ADR turned to the negative zone at 0.88 times with 28 advances & 32 declines, it infers that, the sell-off happened in Banking stocks too.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a discount 2.45 points from the previous week premium level 1.75 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved down from the last week level 0.98 to 0.86. The more open interest seen 16400-16300 PUT option and 16800-17000 Call Option, any further move is possible only by moving above 16800-17000 to test 17100-17300 or if moves below 16400-16300 then, the Index may re-test 16100-15900-15500 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: Last week, the Global Indices witnessed a strong sell-off due to the war out broken between Ukraine Vs Russia has jitters the Indian stock market too, the broad based Nifty Index breached briefly the recent time threshold support levels i.e., 16410, but closed very well above 16410 levels on a weekly basis.

By considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note near 16750-16810-16845, subject to the Asian indices movement, if the index moves above 16845 then, it may try to re-visit 16905-16995-17030-17090-17185-17220-17275-17345-17490-17610-17840-18085 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index moves unable to move above 16750-16810-16845 and moves below 16695-16585-16410 levels; then, it may re-visit 16355-16275-16205-16185-16035-15885-15700-15510-15430 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened at 37400, on opening move, it made a weekly high 38054 thereafter, it moved down, made a weekly low 34991.35 and closed at 36430.75 with a weekly loss -1168.40 points, i.e., -3.11%, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above 36684-36940 levels, further move above 36940 then, it may try to re-test 37210-37470-37730-37775-37930-38035-38125-38300-38460-38520-38620-38860 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 36684-36940, further it moves below 36410-36375-36220 then, the Index may try to re-visit 36120-35985-35875-35770-35515-35250-34990-34940-34750 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested in the recent fall near 16800-16400, try to book partial profit near 17000-17500 levels or if, the stocks that you have invested gives a profit 5-9% and hold rest of the position for 17800 levels.

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