For the weekend 02nd Jul'21-Friday... Updated on 27.06.21, Sunday-9.51 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 15525.95, thereafter it moved to 15505.65 on the opening day i.e., Monday, further the up move lifted the Index till 15895.75 and closed the week at 15860.35 on a positive note with a weekly gain 177 points i.e., 1-13%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices traded on a positive bias, except Nifty FMCG & Nifty Energy. On a positive side, Nifty Metal was leading with a weekly gain by 3.47%, followed by Nifty IT gained 2.69%, Nifty Auto gained 2.52%, Nifty Bank gained 2.33%, Nifty Financial Services gained 1.85%, finally the Nifty Realty and Nifty Pharma gained marginally by 0.79% & 0.28%, respectively. On the other hand, the Nifty Energy lost by -1.01% and FMCG lost -0.77%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain by 1.50% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 1.23%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week turned as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.2685.90 crore on the net basis; and, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.4729.56 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds inflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $73.23, made a weekly high at  $74.44 thereafter, it moved down and made a weekly low till $73.69 and closed the week with a positive note at $74.18, This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $74.28-74.46, if moves and sustain above $74.46 then, the USD may re-test $74.51-74.58-74.64-74.81-74.90-75.04-75.19-75.27 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.11-74.02, then it may re-visit $73.98-73.92-73.87-73.78-73.70-73.60-73.49-73.40-73.31 n the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as on the domestic front, except the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) remaining corporate results, India PMI Manufacturing data and Covid19 developments, we must watch this week. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results, so far 2167 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q4 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit continued in the positive zone by 29.40% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 2167 companies were at Rs.206,801 crore Vs. Rs.159,761 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 322.20% i.e., Rs.206,801 crore, last year these 2167 companies made a Net profit Rs.48,983.80 crore, the major changes in the Net Profit on YoY basis, solely based on the lower base effect, compares with March' 2020 to March'2021.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive below 50k, the number of active cases now at 595,565 the death toll rose to 394,493 the daily death rate also declined below 1200 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, if the daily positive numbers are down steadily, maybe from July-August the normalcy may return, subject to the vaccination drive happens in a full swing and the third Covid Delta Plus wave of Covid19.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved up from $72.30-74.10 per barrel and hovering around $74 he domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to move up, major Metro cities the petrol price crossed Rs.100 mark, since the International Crude price is steady at $72-74 and USD rates also moved above $74 and hovering above $74 as against INR.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved up from the last week level, i.e., 29.06 times and settled on Friday at 29.21 times. The lower PE valuation around 29-30 times, is due to the India Inc.,Q4 good numbers.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a positive zone, out of 2023 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5013 stocks were advanced and 4792 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.05 times. At the same time, in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 1.11 times with 142 advances and 105 declines, this data infers that, the low level buy seen in both NSE listed stocks and also more buying interest seen in Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures was settled at premium by 27.65 points from the last week premium level 13.35 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen in 9612100 when compared with the last week level i.e.,8759250. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has come down from 0.92 to 0.84, the maximum PUT open interest was seen in at 15800 to 15600 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 15900/16000 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support this week 15800/15600 and 15900/16000 may act as strong resistance, above 16000, since CALL writing seen at 16200 strike price and any weakness below 15600, then 15400 levels may act as a strong support.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty Index on the opening move, may open near 15870-15900-15920, subject to the Asian Indices movement on Monday, if the Index moves above 15920 then the it may test 15960-15995-16024-16070-16145 levels. On the other hand, the Index not able to move and sustain above 15875-15900-15920 then, it may try to re-visit 15840-15800-15780 levels, further weakness below 15780 then, the Index may test 15745-15700-15655-15595-15555-15500-15450-15432-15400 levels in the near term.  

Special Mention: The immediate major price correction not seen in the Indian Indices, as well as, on the Global Indices too. In July'21, there is an another US FED interest rate policy meet, is scheduled on 28th July, we must watch, the FED statements about their Economy and Interest rate before this meet or on the policy meet, it may influence/affect the Global stock market. On the domestic front, our India Inc Q1-(April to June'21), corporate performance, may decide further move on the Indian Indices, especially, the Nifty Index, I expect, the Index may trade in a range bound move between 16000-15400 for some more trading sessions i.e., till second week of July'21, further trend may emerge based on the global sentiment and the India Inc, Q1 numbers. If, the Nifty index moves below 15450-15430, the weakness cum profit booking, may drag the Index till 15250-15050 and any up move above 15920-16024 with a wider participation and good volume, may take the Nifty index to test 16220-16350 levels.

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader, who re-invested near 15500 in Nifty50 stocks, start profit booking at 15900-16000 levels or 10-15% return on the stocks invested and wait for the further price correction till 15400-15250-15050 levels to invest further again in Nifty50 stocks for a short term perspective.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading