For the weekend 01st Oct'21-Friday... Updated on 26.09.21, Sunday-12.06 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note i.e., 17443.85; on Monday, the minor profit booking dragged and made a weekly low 17326.10 on Tuesday; thereafter, it moved up throughout the week, made a high on Friday 17947.65 and closed the week at 17853.20 on a positive note with a weekly gain 268.05 points i.e., 1.52%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices were closed with a positive bias, except Nifty Metal, Nifty  Health and Nifty Pharma, on the positive side, the Nifty Realty index was leading with a huge weekly gain 21.22%, followed by the Nifty IT gained 4.09%, Nifty Infra gained 1.37%, Nifty Energy gained 1.27%, Financial Services gained 0.83%, Nifty Auto gained 0.75%, Nifty FMCG gained 0.72%, and Nifty Bank gained marginally by 0.05%. On the other hand, Nifty Metal was leading to a weekly loss -3.44%, followed by Nifty Health -1.18% and Nifty Pharma lost marginally by -0.46%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 0.82%; as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a positive note  with a weekly gain 0.44%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, turned as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold margianlly to the tune of Rs.8.38 crore on the net basis; at the same time, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.3048.50 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $73.69, made a weekly high $73.55 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high $73.91 on Wednesday, further it moved down once again till $73.60 and closed the week with a positive note at $73.80. This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $73.87-73.91, if moves and sustain above $73.91 then, the USD may re-test $74.01-74.05-74.13-74.26-74.31-74.33-74.7-74.44-74.50 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $73.78-73.69 then, it may re-visit $73.63-73.59-73.53-73.46-73.40-73.35-73.29 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, as well as on the domestic front, only the remaining India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results and Covid third wave developments, we must watch this week. 

Q1-2021-2022 Earnings: The India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results, so far 4021 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q1 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop and continued in the negative zone by -13.70% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 4021 companies were at Rs.172,896.10 crore, as against in the Q4 (Jan-Mar'21) the Net profit seen Rs.200,447.40 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 416.10%, last year these 4021 companies made a Net profit Rs.33,502.20 crore. Till last week, almost all major corporate companies declared their Q1(2021-2022) results, this week the rest of the midcap/small cap sector companies will declare their Q1 numbers.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed a flat trend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive around 30k, the number of active cases now at 303,406 the death toll rose to 446,918 the daily death rate has moved down below 300 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, the daily positive numbers are moving down, may be from Oct-Nov, the Covid infected numbers may rise due to the ensuing festive seasons across the India, it depends on the vaccination drive, around 85.61 crores vaccinations are used till date.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has traded in range bound between $69.50 to $74 per barrel and hovering around $74, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to sell above Rs.100-102 mark without any major changes, though the International Crude price hovering near $74, but the USD Vs.INR is hovering at $73-74, hence, the oil marketing companies reduced petrol price and Diesel price marginally.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has gone up from the last week level i.e., 26.93 times and  settled on Friday at 27.29 times. The lower PE valuation around 26-27 times, is due to the changes have been made in the PE calculation from 01st Apr'21 i.e., from an existing pattern of standalone profit to the consolidated profit and Nifty50 stocks Q4 good numbers when compared with last year at the same quarter.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a negative zone, out of 2109 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 4772 stocks were advanced and 5399 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 0.88 times; whereas, the Nifty50 stocks ADR continued in the positive zone at 1.17 times with 136 advances and 115 declines, this data infers that, more buying interest seen in the Nifty50, rather than, NSE listed stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty future was settled at a premium 0.40 points from the last week premium level 18 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as of Friday at 12059850 i.e.,241197 contracts, when compared with the last week level 14449900 i.e., 288998 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) is maintained at the last week level i.e., 0.88, the maximum open interest seen in 17900 PUT option and 18000 CALL option, it indicates this week, the Nifty may face a strong hurdle near 17900-18000 and 17700-17600 levels may act as a strong support..

This week Nifty Trend: Nifty Index as written last week, the technical sell-off dragged till 17435-17326 and took support near 17326 and surpassed 17800, further it made a fresh all time high 17947.65 and closed well above 17800 levels. By considering the above mentioned micro, macro data and other factors I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a flat to positive note to test 17870-17900, subject to the Asian indices movement if, moves above 17900 then, it may try to test till 17945-17980-18020 levels, further strong move above 18020 may take the Index till 18150-18350-18680 in the near term. On the other hand, the Index unable to move above 17945-18020 levels, then the weakness below 17790 then, the Index may re-visit 17650-17435-17325 levels very soon, trade with high caution at 17950-18020 levels, the weekly charts shows that the minor correction is possible with a higher range of consolidation move between 18000-17600, unless the Index moves and closes above 18020 levels, this time the sell-off may be very sharp to drag the index to re-visit 17465-17250 levels, the intraday volatility may be in high note  this week, due to F&O expiry and month-cum-quarterly end falls this week. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who re-invested near 17500-17300 levels start book profit 17900-18020 levels in the Nifty index for the profit 10-15%, on the stocks that you have invested in the last week fall.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading