For the weekend 18th Nov'21-Thursday... Updated on 14.11.21, Sunday-7.20 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note, i.e., 18040.20 on Monday, it moved up and made a high till 18112.60 on Tuesday, thereafter, the sell-off dragged the index and made weekly low 17798.20 on Thursday, further the Index moved up and made a weekly high 18123 and closed the week at 18102.75 on a positive note with a weekly gain 185.95 points, i.e., 1.04%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, the major sectoral indices given mixed performance, on the positive side, the Nifty IT closed  with a weekly gain 2.82%, followed by the Nifty Energy gained 2.65%, Nifty Infra gained 2.64%, Nifty Auto gained 1.18%, Nifty Metal gained 2.42 and Nifty FMCG marginally gained by 0.52%. On the other hand, the Nifty Bank lost -2.12%, Nifty Pharma lost -1.24%, Nifty Realty lost -0.62%, Nifty  Healthcare & Nifty Financial Services lost marginally -0.32% & -0.09%, respectively. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 1.54% as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 1.25%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.4901.76 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.5393.52 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.19, made a weekly low $73.83 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved up and made a weekly high $74.59 on Thursday and closed the week with a positive note at $74.43. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $74.60-74.68, if moves and sustain above $74.68 then, the USD may re-test $74.74-74.83-74.88-74.96-75.04-75.12-75.18 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.16-74.08 then, it may re-visit $74.01-73.92-73.88-73.83-73.74-73.62 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as, on the domestic front except India's WPI Inflation and remaining Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings this week, already major top Nifty50 companies announced their Q2 numbers.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 2653 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 32.50% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 2653 companies were at Rs.228,715.40 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.172,672.90 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 45.90%, last year these 2653 companies made a Net profit Rs.156,770.70 crore. Almost all major Corporates declared their Q2 results ,this week other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a downtrend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive around 10k, the number of active cases now at 135,918 the death toll rose to 463,530, the daily death rate has come down from 500 to 300 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 112.01 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 75.03 crore and second dose 36.98 crore. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved down from $84.90 $79.75 per barrel with downward bias and hovering near $81 and USD vs INR also, trading at $74-75 hence, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes in the last week price.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week levels, i.e., 26.11 times and  settled on Friday at 25.98 times, this is due to the Q2 good performance of the India Inc. results.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a flat to negative zone, out of 2133 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 5083 stocks advanced and 5166 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.98 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has seen in a positive zone at 1.25 times with 138 advances and 110 declines, this data infers that, value buy seen in the Nifty50 stocks rather than NSE listed stocks, also the Nifty Bank Index ADR has moved down to negative zone at 0.79 times with 26 advances & 33 declines.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled at a premium 30.70 points from the previous week discount level -0.10 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as of Friday at 10088800 i.e.,201776 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 10329900 i.e., 206958 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has gone up to 0.83, from the last week level, i.e., 0.75, the maximum open interest seen in 18100/18000 PUT and 18300 CALL options, it indicates the Nifty may take support 18100-18000 levels and may face strong resistance at 18300-18400 levels, further weakness only below 18000 levels, likewise any further up move is possible only if, the index moves and close above 18200-18300 levels, this week.

This week Nifty Trend: Nifty Index last week, took support near 17800 and moved up till 18123 and closed well below the 18k mark. By considering the above mentioned micro, macro data and other factors I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a flat to positive note at 18120-18000, subject to the Asian indices movement, if moves above 18125-18150 then, it may try  to re-test 18165-18195-18225-18270-18340-18380-18410-18445 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to trade above 18100-18225-18340 levels and moves below 18065-18000 levels then, the weakness may drag the Index till 17850-17800-17740-17710-17660-17615 levels further, sell-off below 17610 then, the Index may re-visit 17550-17450-17330 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened at 39674.05, made an open and weekly high 39674.05, thereafter it moved down till 38346.05 and closed 38733.05, this week may try to take support 38430-38346, if the Index moves above 38930 then, the Index may re-test 39030-39220-39560-39675-39760-39950 levels. On the other hand, any weakness below 38346-38000, further weakness below 38300 then, the Index may try to re-visit 38100-37650-37300-37150 levels.

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who Invested near 17700 levels try to book partial profit near 18150-18340 levels or the stocks, you have invested gives 5-8% profit and wait for further upmove or any further dip to invest again.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading.