For the weekend  01st Oct'20-Thursday... Updated on 27.09.20, Sunday: 12.27 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened with negative note at 11301.75, beyond our expected opening band i.e, 11490-11446 thereafter, the index moved down throughout the week made a panic low at 11790.20 on Thursday, the week-end short covering cum some value buy helped the Nifty Index to bouce back till 11072.60 on Friday and closed at 11050.25 with weekly loss by 454.70 points i.e.,-3.95%. As written in the last week outlook, the Index unable to sustain above 11400 and moved beyond our expected downside targets i.e, 10995 and closed on the negative note.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 28th Sep'20, on flat note with positive bias, subject to the Asian market move, to test 11075-11085-11110, if open and sustain above 11110 then, the Index may try to re-test 11170-11210-11260-11300-11385-11430-11520-11620 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 11045-11015 any further move below 11015 then, the Index may test 10990-10940-10860-10790-10760-10660-10560 levels.

Key Events: This week, the major key events are expected in the domestic front is RBI bi-monthly meet which is scheduled on 01st Oct-Thursday, on the global front, the US and UK Q2 GDP data is expected to release on 30th Sep-Wednesday, the outcome may impact on the equity market coming week. The India Inc., Q1-June'20 remaining results are also plays an important role in the Nifty index further movement till first week of Oct'20, as of 26th Sep'20, around 3638 out of 4268 companies already, announced their results, the Net Income seen a drop and made a net loss about -24.90% on Quarter on Quarter-QoQ basis and maintained its subdued performance by -77.10% on Year on Year-YoY basis, the QoQ performance also maintained its subdued performance till last week level i.e., from the Net loss 25.30 to Net Loss 24.90%, which infers that, the India Inc., net income taken a major blow, the corporates who recently declared, their results showed dismal performance, hence the trend continues the down move towards the southward direction, we must wait and watch for the remaining corporates reults, may expect to announce by this week. The price valuation, Price Earnings ratio-PE, last week roaming around 31-32 times most of the days in last week. 

Special Mention: Last week, the sell-off was ignitted by both domestic and global cues, the SEBI circular on 'Asset Allocation of Multi Cap Funds', is a major trigger point, it seems the market is not liked this sudden move, showed a thumbs down, most of the Mutual Funds have stopped accepting any fresh investment and even some of them stopped SIP on the Multicap scheme, they are working on the asset allocation. At the global point of view, the recent US market, Europe and Asian stock market witnessed sell-off, this price correction is a long awaited one, in across the global indices, especially in the Indian stock market, the premium valuation, in terms of Price Earnings-PE, moved up to the all time high last to last week to 33.26 times therefore, the correction is imminent at least till 10800-10500 levels, I expected and written about this and stated that  the Nifty Index coming week may face the selling pressure at 11400, any weakness below this levels, may drag the Nifty Index till 10995 levels, the Index moved beyond this levels and made a low till 10790.20 last week. The long term support trend line i.e., 200 DMA is now lies around 10760, if the Nifty Index moves down again may try to take support 10760 for the time being, else it may test 10660-10550 in the near term.

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were seen a selling pressure and closed with negative note, the Nifty Metal Index lead the weekly loss by 12.26% followed by, Nifty Energy lost 9.45%, Nifty Realty lost 7.65%, Nifty Auto lost 6.03%, Nifty Pharma lost 5.88%, Nifty Bank lost 4.76% and Nifty FMCG & Nifty IT were closed with marginal loss by 2.72% and 1.00%, respectively. Large cap stocks were the major contributors to drag the Nifty Index till 10800, Nifty Midcap-100 marginally lost by 1.56% and closed at 16504, whereas the Nifty Smallcap-100 closed with maginally up by 0.08% and closed at 5654.95.

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week turned to as a net seller once again, they sold every trading session last week, sold to the tune of Rs.10490.91 crores on the net basis whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, turned as a net buyer, they bought almost every day, except on Monday, they bought to the tune of Rs.4249.46 crores on the net basis in the equity segment, as per the data released by NSE in their website, the FIIs once again started to sell across the global indices, the US-FED hawkish view on the Interet rate to continue for the lowest level of 0.25% for long time and their view about the US economy also, jitters the global market, almost the sell-off seen in all the global markets, we should wait and watch how they behave in the ensuing week.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR appreciated from the lowest level i.e.,$72.71 and bounced back once again from the low level till $74.04 (please refer the last week outlook, i have mentioed this final support level i.e., $72.71, exacly it made low at $72.71) and closed on Friday at $73.68, further appreciation or depreciation depends on breaking above $74.44 on the higher side then, it may test $74.93 and support lies at $73.11, below $73.11 then, it may re-test $73.01-72.71-72.39.

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who invested during last week sell-off, start book profit for 5-10%, when the Nifty index moves near 11200-11500. This is a traders market, to trade for short term gains, rather to wait for long term basis.

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