For the weekend 25th Jun'21-Friday... Updated on 20.06.21, Sunday-4.24 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a flat note at 15791.40, thereafter it moved to 15901.40 on Tuesday, the sell-off dragged the Index till 15450.90 on Friday and closed the week at 15799.35 on a negative note with weekly loss -116 points i.e., -0.73%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices traded on negative bias, except Nifty FMCG & Nifty IT. On a negative side, Nifty Metal was leading with a weekly loss by -6.62%, followed by Nifty Realty lost -3.91%, Nifty Energy lost 3.04%, Nifty Pharma lost -3.00%, Nifty Auto lost -2.99%, finally the Nifty Financial Services lost marginally by -1.32%. On the other hand, the Nifty FMCG & Nifty IT index gained 1.80%, 0.81%, respectively. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss by -3.05% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly loss by -1.81%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week continued as a net buyer in the Equity segment, they bought to the tune of Rs.1060.73 crore on the net basis; and, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, turned as a net buyer, they bought marginally to the tune of Rs.178.57 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds inflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $73.23, made a weekly low at  $73.09 thereafter, it moved up and made a weekly high till $74.46 and closed with a positive note at $74.14, This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $74.28-74.46, if moves and sustain above $74.46 then the USD may re-test $74.67-74.84-74.94-75.10-75.27-75-48-75.65 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.06-73.96, then it may re-visit $73.85-73.76-73.62-73.41-73.21-73.09 n the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as, on the domestic front except the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) remaining corporate results and Covid19 developments, we must watch this week. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results, so far 1656 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q4 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit continued in the positive zone by 25.40% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 1656 companies were at Rs.188,661.30 crore Vs. Rs.150,492.80 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 227% i.e., Rs.188,661.30 crore, last year these 1656 companies made a Net profit Rs.57,688.90 crore, the major changes in the Net Profit on YoY basis, solely based on the lower base effect in March' 2020.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive below 0.60k, the number of active cases now at 729,243 the death toll rose to 386,713 the daily death rate also declined below 1500 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, if the daily positive numbers are down steadily, maybe from July-August the normalcy may return, subject to the vaccination drive happens in a full swing and the third wave of Covid19.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved up from $70  to 73 per barrel and hovering around $70-71 the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to move up, major Metro cities the petrol price crossed Rs.100 mark, since the International Crude price is steady at $70-72 and USD rates also moved above $74 and hovering above $74 as against INR.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level, i.e., 29.30 times and settled on Friday at 29.06 times. The lower PE valuation around 29-30 times, is due to the India Inc.,Q4 good numbers.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in a negative zone, last week out of 2076 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 4080 stocks were advanced and 6006 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 0.68 times, in the overall NSE listed stocks, especially in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 0.44 times with 94 advances and 156 declines, this data infers that the profit booking seen in NSE listed stocks and also in Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures was settled at premium by 13.35 points points from the last week premium level 17.95 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen in 8759250 when compared with the last week level i.e.,11800875. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) moved up to from 0.85 to 0.92, the maximum PUT open interest was seen in at 15600 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 16000 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support this week 15600 and 16000 may act as strong resistance, above 16000, since CALL writing seen at 15900-16000 strike price and any weakness below 15600, then 15400 levels may act as a strong support., the PUT writing seen till 15400-15300 strike price.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty Index on the opening move, may open near 15695-14740, subject to the Asian Indices movement on Monday,  if the Index moves above 15740-15770 then the it may test 15810-15850-15900-15920-15950-15995-16025-16070 levels. On the other hand the Index not able to move and sustain above 15740-15770 then the Index may try to re-visit 15670-15625-15555-15505-15450-15432-15390-15350-15336-15310-15275 levels in the near term.  

Special Mention: The US FED meet last week, as expected maintained a status quo in their Interest rate policy at 0.25%, but they given hint that the Interest rate may be raised twice before 2023, this comment jitters the US Index DJA and global market also, the knee jerk reaction has been seen in our Indian stock market, the Nifty Index lost positive momentum on a weekly basis, though it moved up and made a new all time till 15901, the profit booking were dragged the Nifty Index till our threshold support levels i.e., 15432, made a weekly low till 15450.90 and closed well below 15780. The Covid further developments and India Inc. Q4 remaining results are setting the further direction of the Nifty Index movement this week, if the Index able to surpass & close above 15780-15850-15900 then, the strong upward momentum may lift the Nifty Index till 16000-16070-16220 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index fails to move above 15780-15850-15900, then the weakness once again may drag the Index till 15450-15390-15240-15030 levels very soon. The India Vix-Volatility Index as expected moved from the lowest level from 10.60 to 16.62 on Friday, it shows the Intra volatility may be high, the Nifty index may trade with a broad range consolidation between 15400-15900 levels.

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader, who re-invested near 15500 in Nifty50 stocks, start profit booking at 15800-15900 levels or 5-10% return on the stocks invested and wait for the further price correction till 15500-15050 levels to invest further again in Nifty50 stocks for a short term perspective.

Further details please do call us on 98410 48022 or contact thro' WhatsApp: 99624 70636. Please read carefully, the Disclaimer published on the Disclaimer page.

Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading