For the weekend 30th Apr'21-Friday... Updated on 25.04.21, Sunday-7.02 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on negative note at 14306.60, made a weekly high 14526.95 on Tuesday, thereafter, the Index moved down once again, made weekly low till 14151.40 and closed the week at 14341.35 on negative note with weekly loss -276.50 points i.e., -1.89%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were traded on negative bias, except Nifty Pharma & Nifty Metal. On the negative side, Nifty Realty was leading with the weekly loss by -3.59%, followed by Nifty FMCG lost -3.23%, Nifty IT lost -2.72%, Nifty Auto lost -2.16%, Nifty Energy lost -1.70%, finally Nifty Financial Services and Nifty Bank marginally lost -0.81% & 0.80% respectively. On on the other hand, the  Nifty Pharma gained 0.65% and Nifty Metal gained by 0.29%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on negative note with weekly loss by -1.13% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly loss by -0.16%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week conitnued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.4986.35 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.6174.14 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI. The FIIs were selling all the days last week, as well as the Foreign Portfolio Investors-FPI's, so far in April they pulled out a net Rs.7622 crore from the Indian Equity market, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.65, moved up on opening move till our resistance level i.e, $75.69, made weekly high  at $75.65, thereafter, it has seen a drop  till $74.51 and closed with positive note at $74.87. This week, the USD Vs INR should  move above $74.95-75.08, if it moves and sustains above $75.08, then the USD may re-test $75.15-75.21-75.31-75.40-75.47-75.65-75.96-76.06-76.27-76.49. On the other hand, if the USD, if not moves above $74.95 and moves down below $74.66-74.51, then the weakness may drag the USD to $74.36-74.17-73.97-73.77-73.57-73.38-73.20 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front other than, US FED Interest rate decision, whch is expected on 28th Apr-Wednesday as well as, on the domestic front, no major event is expected other than the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results, F&O Expiry and further Covid19 developments. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results were announced, so far 69 out of 4248 companies declared their Q4 results, on QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop by -6.80% when compares with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 69 companies were Rs.31,508.60 crore Vs. Rs.33,812.90 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 19.20% i.e., Rs.31,508.60, last year these 69 companies made a Net profit Rs.26,432.80. The major drop in Net Profit this quarter due to higher payment of Tax, these 69 companies paid Tax worth about Rs.11,297.90 Vs.9343 crore during last quarter, so the tax part dent the Net Profit to the negative numbers, though the Sales/Income has seen a positive growth about 6.10% i.e., Rs.149,876.20 Vs. 141,229.10 crore during the last quarter. This week, the major corporate companies Q4 results are expected such as, HDFC Life, SBI Cards, Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, HDFC AMC, Maruti Suzuki,Bajaj Finserv, TVS Motors, Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Holdings, HUL, Reliance, Titan, Indusind Bank, Yes Bank and LT Finance etc.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave spreading just like that, as of Saturuday the country witnessed a huge positive cases, the numbers moved from the last week daily numbers i.e., 2.61 lakhs to 3.46 lakhs, a record single-day rise of 3,46,786 coronavirus cases pushed India’s tally of infection to 1,66,10,481, while active cases crossed the 25-lakh mark, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Saturday, the death toll rose to 1,89,544 with a record 2,624 more fatalities in a day. The capital of India., Delhi CM literally begged the Uinoin Govt and other States to help Oxygen supply, due to the shortage of Oxygen, more death occured also more fatality seen in Gujarath, Maha and UP, really do not understand whom to blame for this ? several states and Union territories have imposed restrictions, including Maharashtra imposed 144 Curfew and Delhi extended lcck down till 03rd May'21, others states declared week-end curfew, night curfew and tightened existing restrictions in major cities of several states are trying hard to control this epidemic, the death rates are moves faster, this may impact the supply chain and our Indian economy. The Covid19  further development may rule the Indian Equity Market this week.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved up from $60.60 to 62.50 per barrel, though the domestic Petrol & Disel prices, not raised due to the state election, it may be raised after the vote counting i.e., 02nd May, subject to  the International Crude price and USD rates.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level i.e., 32.84 times and settled on Friday at 32.07 times, if the India Inc., Q4 results are not showing any good numbers, then Nifty Index may see further price correction. 

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in nuetral zone, last week out of 2010 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 4769 stocks were advanced and 4772 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1 time, in the overall Nifty stocks, especially in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 0.72 time with 105 advances and 145 declines. This datas infers that more selling pressure seen in Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures was settled at discount by -2.75 points points from the last week premium level 27.85 points, the Nifty futures OI seen at 10226100, when compares with the last week level i.e., 11717250. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) seen at 0.82, the  maximum PUT open interest was seen in at 14100 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 14600 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support 14200-14000 for time being and 14600 may act as strong resistance, above 14600, then next hurdle seen at 14900-15000 and any weakness below 14000, then 13900-13600 are possible down side support levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may face resistance near 14460-14570, any further up move above 14570 then, the Index may re-test 14695-14740-14820-14870-14920-14985-15050-15210 levels in the near term. On the other hand the support lies at 14350-14275, if the Index moves below 14275 then, it may try to re-visit 14220-14190-14160-14070-13965-13900-13850-13735-13660 levels.  

Special Mention: It seems, the Nifty Index could test 14000-13600 levels in the near term, further weakness below 13660-13595 may drag the Nifty Index till 13200-13130 levels, on the other hand 14500-14750 may act as strong resistance, above 14700 then the Index may re-test 14985-15055-15210 on the higher side, . 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, try to re-invest in Nifty50 stocks, when the Nifty Index moves to 14200-14000-13600 levels for 5-15% return on short to medium term perspective.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading