For the weekend  26th Mar'21-Friday... Updated on  22.03.21, Monday-6.30 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened on positive note at 15048.40, our expected opening band i.e., 15070-15140, made weekly high 15051.60 on Tuesday, thereafter, the Index moved down throughout the week and made a day low till 14350.10, further the mild pull back rally lifted the Index till 14788 on Friday and closed the week at 14744 on a positive note with weekly gain by 186.15 points i.e., 1.28%. 

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 22nd Mar'21, on flat to negative note, subject to the Asian market move, near 14740-14700, if open and sustain below 14700 then, the Index may try to re-visit 14635-14565-14515-14465-14435-14350-14255-14160-14070 levels. On the other hand, the immediate resistance seen at 14785-14845-14875 levels, any further up move above 14875 then, the Index may re-test 14905-14960-15050-15125-15240-15336-15431 levels.

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, as well as on the domestic front and India Inc. remaining corporate companies quarterly results for the Q3 (Oct-Dec'20 quarter), as of 20th Mar'21, 3959 companies announced their Q3 numbers, the Q-o-Q basis net profit has lost the positive momentum and moved to the negative territory with marginal loss about -0.20%, when compares with the last quarter. On Y-o-Y basis, it is sustaining the positive growth at 64%, compares with the same period last year Dec'19, we should wait and watch the remaining corporate companies results, in the ensuing days. The Crude Oil price seen a price correction and it was traded in a range between $66-58.30 per barrel, the Inflation rates are moving northwards, the WPI Inflation rate for the month of Feb'21 has moved to 4.17%, when compares with the Jan'21 it was at 2.03%. Across all the sectors, the prices are soaring up, it is already evident in the India Inc. Q3 results, when compares with the Sep'20 Quarter, the sales was Rs.15,50,311.20 Crore, whereas during Dec'20 quarter the Sales has moved up by 16.60% i.e., Rs.18,07,052.30 Crore, but the Net profit not moved up correspondingly, it has moved down with a marginal decrease by -0.20%, it infers that the expenditure had eaten away the revenue made through the excess sales. if the Crude oil price is sustain at $60-65 per barrel, impact more on the India Inc, the same will be reflected in the final Quarter i.e., Q4 (upto Mar'21). The FPI/FIIs are saving the Inidan Equity market, since they bought in the Indian Eqyity market, which has saved from the deep fall last week, as long as they buy, the price correction may stop and NIfty Index may take support at 14350-14000 levels, the price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved down from the last week level i.e., 40.94 times and settled on Friday at 40.16 times. 

Special Mention: Last week, the Nifty Index as written and expected it was broken the last to last week trading range on the lower side i.e., 14467 and moved till 14350, the strong FIIs funds Inflow, saved the Index from further weakness, but unable to close above 14745, it looks the Nifty may try to take support this week at 14350 the technical pull back may continue till 15050-15115-15200 levels, we wiill have to wait and watch how the Nifty Index trades this week on opening move, if the Index unable to move above 15050 then, it may re-visit once again the panic bottom made on Friday i.e., 14350, the sell-off below 14350, may pave the way to re-visit 14160-13960 levels this week.

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were traded with negative bias except Nifty FMCG. The Nifty Realty was leading with the weekly loss by -5.81%, followed by Nifty Pharma lost -4.24%, Nifty Bank lost -3.76%, Nifty Financial Services lost -3.16% and Nifty Auto lost -1.90%, Nifty Energy lost -1.72%, Nifty IT lost -1.26%, finally the Nifty Metal marginally lost by -0.20%.  At the same time the Nifty FMCG was gained 2.90%. On the other hand, Nifty Midcap Index closed on negative note with weekly loss by -2.91% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly loss by -3.25%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week continued as a net buyer in the Equity segment, they bought to the tune of Rs.5893.68 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, turned as a net seller, they sold to the tune of Rs.3037 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI. We must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds flow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR depreciated from the weekly high level i.e.,$72.78 and moved down till $72.30 and closed on Friday at $72.53, as expected and written last week, it was not able to move above $73.40, the brief weakness dragged once again till $72.30. This week, if the USD vs INR moves down below $72.26-72.15 then, it may try to re-visit $72.00-71.76-71.47. On the other hand if it is able to move up above $73.74-72.78.62 on the upper side then, it may re-test $72.78-72.87-72.97-73.01-73.12-73.17-73.23 levels in the near term. 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who re-invested near 14600-14300 levels during the recemt down trend, start book profit partially near 14900-15070 levels, to gain 5-10% reuturn if the stocks you invested gives this profit and hold rest and adopt buy on dips strategy at 14400-14000 levels.

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