For the weekend 21st May'21-Friday... Updated on 16.05.21, Sunday-6.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on negative note at 14928.25, made a weekly high 14966.90 on Monday, thereafter, the Index moved down throughout the week and made weekly low at 14591.90 and closed the week at 14677.80 on negative note with weekly loss -145.35 points i.e., -0.98%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, the major sectoral indices were traded with mixed performance. On the negative side, Nifty Metal was leading with the weekly loss by -4.58%, followed by Nifty IT lost -2.59%, Nifty Realty lost -2.34%, Nifty Financial Services lost -2.27%, Nifty Bank lost 2.23%, finally the Nifty Auto lost marginally lost -0.09%. On the other hand, the Nifty Energy gained 1.95%, Nifty FMCG gained 1.93% and Nifty Pharma gained 1.01%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on negative note with weekly loss by -0.74% and Nifty Smallcap Index closed with a weekly gain by 0.25%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week conitnued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.3620.75 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.1244.03 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $73.29, made low at $73.24, thereafter, it has rallied till $73.75, further it was unable to move up and witnessed  a drop till $73.19 and closed with negative note at $73.27. This week, the USD Vs INR should take support at $73.17-73.04, it moves and sustain below $73.04 then the USD may re-visit $72.95-72.81-72.66-72.45-72.26 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves above $73.37-73.48 then the up move may take the USD to $73.53-73.66-73.75-73.90-74.01-74.30-74.48-74.65 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, as well as, on the domestic front, other than domestic data WPI Inflation for April is expected on 17th May, further the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) remaining corporate results and Covid19 developments. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results, so far 483 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q4 results, on QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop by -6% when compares with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 483 companies were at Rs.96,523.30 crore Vs. Rs.102,630.10 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 66.20% i.e., Rs.96,523.10, last year these 483 companies made a Net profit Rs.58,084.10 crore. The major drop in Net Profit this quarter due to higher payment of Tax, these 483 companies paid Tax worth about Rs.29,663.50 Vs.28,381.90 crore during last quarter, so the tax part dent the Net Profit to the negative zone, though the Sales/Income has seen a positive growth about 14.10% i.e., Rs.746,148.90 Vs. 654,105.60 crore during the last quarter. This week, the major corporate companies Q4 results are expected such as, Bharti Airtel, Colgate, Glaxosmith, Tata Motors, HPCL, Havells India, Hindalco, etc.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has seen some declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday less than 4 lakhs positive cases, the India’s tally of infection stood at 36,18,458, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on today the death toll rose to 270,284 with more than 4000 fatalities in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments this week. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved up from $63 to 65.50 per barrel and hovering around $65, as writen the domestic Petrol & Disel prices, started to move up after state elections, since the International Crude price is steady at $65 and USD rates also hoveing around $73 as against INR.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level i.e., 30.23 times and settled on Friday at 29.79 times, if the India Inc., Q4 results are not showing any good numbers, then Nifty Index may see further price correction till 14000-13600 till it may trade in a wide range between 14400-15200. 

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in positive zone, last week out of 2044 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5298 stocks were advanced and 4481 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.18 times, in the overall Nifty stocks, especially in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 0.98 times with 123 advances and  126 declines, this data infers that the profit booking seen in Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures was settled at premium by 37.15 points points from the last week premium level 46.40 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen at 11205975 when compares with the last week level i.e., 11279550. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) seen at 0.86, the  maximum PUT open interest was seen in at 14500 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 15100 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support this week 14500 and 15100 may act as strong resistance, above 15100, then next hurdle seen at 15300 and any weakness below 14500, then 14400-14100 are possible down side support levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may face strong resistance at 14825-14895, any further up move above 14895 then, the Index may re-test 14970-15060-15110-15160-15220-15275-15335 levels in the near term. On the other hand the immediate support lies at 14750-14600, if the Index moves below 14600 then, it may try to re-visit 14490-14450-14275-14415 levels.  

Special Mention: It seems, Covid further developments and India Inc. Q4 remaining results are set the further direction on the Nifty Index movement, the Nifty could test 14980-15050 levels in the near term, further strong move above 15050, then the Index may re-test 15200-15335 levels. On the other hand 14600-14415 may act as strong support, below 14400 then the Index may re-visit 14150-13960-13600 on the lower side. 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, try to re-invest in Nifty50 stocks, when the Nifty Index moves to 14500-14150 levels for 5-15% return on short to medium term perspective.

Further details please do call us on 98410 48022 or contact thro' whatsapp: 99624 70636. Please read carefully, the Disclaimer published in the Disclaimer page.

Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading