For the weekend 14th Jan'22-Friday... Updated on 09.01.22, Sunday-9.51 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 17387.15 on Monday, it made a weekly low 17383.30 and moved up, the rest of the week, made a weekly high 17944.70 on Friday and closed the week at 17812.70 on a positive note with a weekly gain 458.65 points, i.e., 2.64%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral closed on the positive side, except Nifty Pharma, Nifty Healthcare & Nfty Nifty IT index, on the positive side the Nifty Bank lead with a weekly gain 6.36%, followed by the Nifty Financial Services gained 5.05%, Nifty Energy gained 4.18%, Nifty Auto gained 3.24%, Nifty Metal gained 2.95%, Nifty Infra gained 2.84%, Nifty FMCG gained 0.76%. On the other side, Nifty Pharma lost by -2.57%, followed up by, the  Nifty Healthacare lost -2.47% and Nifty IT lost by -1.45%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 2.20%, as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index  closed on a positive note with a gain 1.81%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, turned as a net buyer in the Equity segment, this week they bought to the tune of Rs.1082.83 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.3293.28 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.51, it made a weekly high $74.70 on Tuesday; thereafter, it moved down throughout the week, made a weekly low $74.14 on Friday and closed on a negative note $74.16 with a weekly loss -0.34, i.e., -0.46%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $74.20-74.27, if moves and sustain above $74.27 then, the USD may re-test $74.35-74.42-74.51-74.62-74.70-74.85-75.01 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.13-74.09 then, it may re-visit $74.03-73.98-73.92-73.83-73.77-73.61 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except IIP data and Inflation datas and we can expect some major IT co's Q3 (Oct-Dec'21) corporate earnings this week, such as Infosys, TCS & Wipro, may declare their results this week.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 4122 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 37.50% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 4122 companies were at Rs.238,434.70 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.173,3490.80 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 54.30%, last year these 4122 companies made a Net profit Rs.154,556.50 crore. Almost all major Corporates declared their Q2 results, this week other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a northward move, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive cases jumped from 19k to 119k, the number of active cases now at 590,611 the death toll rose to 483,790, the daily death rate has gone up from 285 to 327 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 151.58 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 86.08 crore, second dose 63.20 crore and between 15-18 years, they got the vaccination around 2.30 crore . The Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron has been spreading all over the world, jitter across the global countries, India's Omicron count rose to 27553 as of Sunday. According to the World Health Organisation, the new variant is less lethal but likely to spread at a higher speed hence, we must wait and watch the further development.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $74.30 to $80.45  per barrel with upward bias and hovering near $79 and USD vs INR also, trading  between $74-74.70 hence, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for a couple of month, if the Crude price moves above $85 the, the domestic price also may move up further.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved up, from the last week levels, i.e., 24.11 times and settled on Friday at 24.75 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index), last week has went up from the previous week levels, i.e., 16.22 to 17.60. It seems, this week the intra volatility may be at an elevated levels between 15-21 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the positive zone, out of 2192 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 6095 stocks advanced and 4585 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 1.33 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has moved to the positive zone at 1.770 times with 159 advances and 90 declines, this data infers that, some value buying seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, at the same time, the Nifty Bank Index ADR continued to be in the positive zone at 4.00 times with 48 advances & 12 declines, it infers that, more value buying interest seen in Banking & Financial stocks too.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a premium 41.60 points from the previous week premium level 55.90 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved down from the last week level 0.88 to 0.87. The more open interest seen 17800 PUT option and 17900 CAll Option, any further move is possible only by moving above 17900 to test 18000-18210 or if moves below 17800 then, the Index may re-test 17400 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: By considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note near 17850-17905, subject to the Asian indices movement, Nifty may try to move above 17850-17905-17960, if moves above 17960 levels this week, then it may try to test 18150-18210-18350-18475 with a upward bias, it seems for time being the Index may face strong hurdle near 17960-18160 and it may take support near 17740-17700-17495-17360 levels. if moves below 17360 then, the index may move down to re-visit 17000-16885-16775-16600 levels. On the other hand, if the Index fails to move above 17400-17445-17545 and moves below 17340-17240 then, it may try to re-visit 17155-17050-16960-16890-16830-16790-16700-16590-16410 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 35585.20, on opening move, it made a weekly low 35526.60 thereafter, it moved up throughout the week, made a weekly high 38134.85 and closed at 37739.60 with a huge weekly gain 2257.90 points, i.e., 6.36%,  this week , the Nifty Bank Index must move above 37860-37930-38135 levels, further move above 38135 then, it may try to re-test 38330-38425-38735-38925-39120-39195-39400-39625. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 37730-37860-38135, further it moves below 37690-37495 then, the Index may try to re-visit 37300-37145-36990-36820-36645-36415-36185 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested in the recent fall near 16600-16400 levels, try to book full profit near 17900-18160 levels or the stocks that you have bought gives a profit between 9-15% and wait for the down move to re-invest near 16700-16400 in Nifty100 stocks.

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