For the weekend 06th Aug'21-Friday... Updated on 01.08.21, Sunday-04.02 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 15849.30; on opening move, it made a weekly high at 15893.35 on Monday, thereafter it moved down and made a weekly low till 15513.45 on Wednesday, further it moved up till 15862.80 and closed the week at 15763.05 on a negative note with a weekly loss -93 points i.e., -0.59%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, almost all the sectoral indices closed with a negative bias, except Nifty Metal & Nifty IT. On the negative side, the Nifty Energy was leading with a weekly loss by -2.92, followed by Nifty Auto lost -1.50%, Nifty FMCG lost -1.39%, Nifty Bank lost -1.28%, Nifty Pharma lost -1.18% and Nifty Financial Services  & Nifty Realty lost marginally -0.86% & -0.60%, respectively. On the positive side, the Nifty Metal was leading the gain by 7.78% and Nifty IT gained 1.96%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain by 0.84% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 1.11%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.1835.21 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.8206.32 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.48, made a weekly high at $74.69 on MoNday; thereafter, it moved down and made a weekly low till $74.20 and closed the week with a negative note at $74.38, This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $74.48-74.55 if moves and sustain above $74.55 then, the USD may re-test $74.63-74.70-74.81-74.89-74-95-75.07-75.23 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.31-74-20 then, it may re-visit $74.02-73.87-73.80-73.71-73.63-73.55 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as on the domestic front, except the RBI Bi-monthly MPC meet scheduled for 04-06th Aug'21 and Indian Manufacturing PMI & Service PMI data are expected this week, finally the India Inc.  Q1(Apr-Jun'21) results and Covid third wave developments, we must watch this week. 

Q1-2021-2022 Earnings: The India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results, so far 609 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q1 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop and moved to the negative zone by -10.90% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 609 companies were at Rs.96,878.20 crore Vs. Rs.108,725.70 crore (Q4-Jan-Mar'21). Likewise, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 85.10% i.e., Rs.96,878.20 crore, last year these 609 companies made a Net profit Rs.52,334.70 crore, this week the following major corporates will declare their Q1 numbers, they are: HDFC Ltd, RBL Bank, Bharti Airtel, Godrej Consumer, HPCL, SBI, Titan, Adani Power, Adani Transport, Bajaj Consumer, CIPLA, Tata Chemicals, Hindalco, JK Tyre, M&M, Tata Power etc., the results may dictate further move on the Nifty Index for the ensuing weeks.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive below 40k, the number of active cases now at 410,952 the death toll rose to 424,351 the daily death rate moved above 500 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, if the daily positive numbers are down steadily, may be from August the normalcy may return, subject to the vaccination drive happens in a full swing (as on date, the vaccination status stands at 47.03 crore) and the third wave of the covid19.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $70.60 to $74.20 per barrel and hovering around $73-74, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to sell above Rs.100-104 mark, since the International Crude price is steady at $73-74, the recent OPEC Meet, the OPEC countries agreed to increase the production from Aug to Dec'21 by a further 2 billion bpd or 0.40 bpd a month, this decision has dragged down the Crude Oil price to $65, but the price correction was a short lived one and moved once again near $74 per barrel.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level, i.e., 28.28 times and settled on Friday at 27.01 times. The lower PE valuation around 27-28 times, is due to the India Inc.,Q4 good numbers when compared with last year at the same quarter.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a negative zone, out of 2067 stocks were traded daily on an average basis 4843 stocks were advanced and 5152 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 0.94 times. At the same time, in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 0.79 times with 110 advances and 150 declines, this data infers that, the profit booking seen in Nifty50 stocks rather than NSE listed stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty future was settled at a premium by 14.20 points from the last week discount level -2.95 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen in 9419800 when compared with the last week level i.e.,8315200. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has gone up from 0.84 to 0.90 the maximum open interest seen in 15800 strike price for both the CALL & PUT option, it indicates that, the Nifty may face strong hurdle seen 15800-15900 this week and 15500-15400 may act as strong support.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty Index on Monday, may open with a flat to positive note near 15780-15825, subject to the Asian Indices movement, if the Index moves above 15825 then, the it may test 15860-15895-15935-15962-15997-16025-16070-16095-16145-16220 levels. On the other hand, the Index fails to move above 15825-15860 further, if the Index moves below 15735 then, it may re-visit 15710-15660-15605-15560-15525-15480-15432-15410-15355 levels in the near term.  

Special Mention: Nifty Index last week, though it violated once again the threshold support levels i.e., 15632 and made a low till 15513.45 but, the Index moved up again till 15862 and unable to close at the crucial support i.e,,15780 levels, this week the Index must move above 15825-15862 on the opening move then, it may try to test 15900-15962-16070-16220 levels in the near term. On the other hand, any weakness at 15780-15700 levels, may drag the Index once again till 15513-15432-15355 levels very soon, it seems the Index may trade in a broad range bound move between 16000-15400 levels, for some more trading sessions, further trend may emerge based on the outcome of RBI MPC meet, remaining India Inc, Q1 numbers and Covid third wave developments.

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested near 15600-15500, may book profit till 15860-16000 and wait for a further dip to re-invest again at 15500-15375 levels with a short term perspective to gain 5-15% , on the Nifty50 stocks.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading