For the weekend 07th May'21-Friday... Updated on 03.05.21, Monday-6.51 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on negative note at 14449.45, made a weekly low 14421.30 on Monday, thereafter, the Index moved up till 15044.35, then the Index got sold-off once again till 14601.70 and closed the week at 14631.10 on positive note with weekly gain 289.75 points i.e., 2.02%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were traded on positive bias, except Nifty FMCG. On the positive side, Nifty Metal was leading with the weekly gain by 9.02%, followed by Nifty Bank gained 3.34%, Nifty Realty gained 2.58%, Nifty Energy gained 2.81%, Nifty Financial Services gained 2.11%, Nifty Pharma gained 1.12%, Nifty Auto gained 0.46%, finally Nifty IT marginally gained 0.22%. On on the other hand, the  Nifty FMCG lost marginallly by -0.30%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on positive note with weekly gain by 2.99% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 3.81%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week conitnued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.4456.32 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.3399.37 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI. The Foreign Portfolio Investors-FPI's, during April they pulled out a net Rs.9659 crore from the Indian Equity market and Rs.118 crore from the Debt segment, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.87, moved up on opening move till our resistance level i.e, $75.21, made weekly high at $75.23, thereafter, it has seen a drop till $73.88 and closed with negative note at $74.08. This week, the USD Vs INR should  move above $74.17-74.36-74.66, if it moves and sustains above $74.66, then the USD may re-test $74.92-75.21-75.31-75.51-75.65-75.96-76.06-76.31. On the other hand, if the USD, if not moves above $74.17-74.66 and moves down below $73.88-73.65, then the weakness may drag the USD to $73.40-73.20-73.13-73.07-72.87-72.67 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, as well as, on the domestic front, other than the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) remaining corporate results and further Covid19 developments. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results were announced, so far 196 out of 4248 companies declared their Q4 results, on QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop by -8.60% when compares with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 196 companies were Rs.61,860.20 crore Vs. Rs.67,646.50 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 36.30% i.e., Rs.61,860.20, last year these 196 companies made a Net profit Rs.45,403.10. The major drop in Net Profit this quarter due to higher payment of Tax, these 196 companies paid Tax worth about Rs.18,350.20 Vs.16022.20 crore during last quarter, so the tax part dent the Net Profit to the negative numbers, though the Sales/Income has seen a positive growth about 10.10% i.e., Rs.438,743.40 Vs. 398,582.60 crore during the last quarter. This week, the major corporate companies Q4 results are expected such as, Kotak Mahindra Bank,SBI Life, Adani Enterprises,Adani Transport, Adani Power, Tata Steel, HDFC etc.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave spreading very fast, as of Saturuday the country witnessed a huge positive cases, the numbers moved from the last week daily numbers i.e., 3.46 lakhs to nearly 4 lakhs, which is pushed India’s tally of infection to 1,99,19,715, while active cases crossed the 34-lakh mark, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Saturday, the death toll rose to 2,18,9454 with a record 3421 more fatalities in a day. Alomost morethan 14 states witnessed the Covid positive cases above 10k mark, the vaccination plan for the age group above 18 years not started as expected on 01st May 2021, due to shortage of vaccination doses, only few states started this.,the shortage of Oxygen and its related death is still on in Delhi and other states. We will have to wait and see the further developments this week. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved up from $60 to 65 per barrel and hovering around $63, though the domestic Petrol & Disel prices, not raised due to the state elections, it may be raised from this week, subject to  the International Crude price and USD rates.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has gone up from the last week level i.e., 32.07 times and settled on Friday at 32.21 times, if the India Inc., Q4 results are not showing any good numbers, then Nifty Index may see further price correction till 14000-13600. 

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in nuetral zone, last week out of 2020 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5483 stocks were advanced and 4086 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.34 times, in the overall Nifty stocks, especially in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 1.64 times with 147 advances and 101 declines. This datas infers that the Index not give up, the Bulls are taking cntrol from the sell-off. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures was settled at premium by 59.70 points points from the last week discount level 2.75 points, the Nifty futures OI seen at 10028100, when compares with the last week level i.e., 10226100. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) seen at 0.87, the  maximum PUT open interest was seen in at 14100 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 14700 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support 14300-14000 for time being and 14700 may act as strong resistance, above 14700, then next hurdle seen at 14900-15000 and any weakness below 14000, then 13900-13600 are possible down side support levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may find support 14600-14485, any further down move below 14485 then, the Index may re-visit 14425-14365-14260-14150-14070-13960 levels in the near term. On the other hand the resistance seen at 14770-14860, if the Index moves below 14860 then, it may try to re-test 14920-14995-15045-15160-15220-15330 levels.  

Special Mention: The recent held state elections in 5 states i.e., Assam, West Bengal, Tamil nadu, Kerala and Pudhucherry, the results are expected one and it may not give any major impact in the Indian stock market, may be some knee jerk reaction on the opening move today, since West Begal Trinamool Congress sweeped the entire state, it has disappointed the BJP, rest of the states results are in line with the expectation.  It seems, the Nifty Index could test 14000-13600 levels in the near term, further weakness below 13660-13595 may drag the Nifty Index till 13200-13130 levels, on the other hand 14770-15050 may act as strong resistance, above 15050 then the Index may re-test 15210-15330 on the higher side, . 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, try to re-invest in Nifty50 stocks, when the Nifty Index moves to 14200-14000-13600 levels for 5-15% return on short to medium term perspective.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading