For the weekend 08th Jan'21-Friday... Updated on 04.01.21, Monday-05.31 am

The year 2020, was closed with a green and Nifty Index has given a positve annual return about 14.90%, it is the first time in the Indian stock market history, both Sensex and Nifty closed with positive return consecutively for the last 5 years. 

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened on a positive note at 13815.15, our expected opening band i.e., 13770-13805, made a high 13997 on wednesday thereafter, the minor sell-off dragged the Index and made a weekly low 13864.95, further the strong upmove lifted the Index till 14049.85 on Friday and closed the week at 14018.50 on a positive note with weekly gain by 269.25 points i.e., 1.96%. 

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 04th Jan'20, on flat to positive note, subject to the Asian market move, at 14420-14040-14060, if open and sustain above 14060 then, the Index may try to test 14105-14175-14300-14425-14600 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies 13980-13865 levels, any further down move below 13865 then, the Index may test 13800-13770-13640-13585-13450-13380-13285-13130 levels.

Key Events: The coming week, no major key events are expected on the Global front, as well as on the domestic front, the India Inc. quarterly results for the Q3 quarter may start only next week,  this week, the remaining corporate companies Q2 results are awaited, so, far, on the total of 4248 companies, 3853 companies were declared their Q2 results, they made a net profit 389.60% when compared with the Q1 net profit on QoQ basis and YoY basis the net profit also moved to 557.10% from the same period last year i.e., Sep'19, though the net profit numbers shows the tremendous growth, but the Sales/Income are not seen the major turnaround, when compared with the last year Sep'19, we should wait and watch the remaining corporate companies results, in the ensuing days. The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, last week has peaked once again to unprecedented level i.e., 38.55 times on Friday, when compared to last week, it was 37.81 times. 

Special Mention:Last week, the Nifty Index successfully moved as expected till 14k, I had written this target level i.e, 14-15k, when the Nifty index crossed the 12770 levels. This week, if the Nifty Index sustains and closes above 14040 for three conesecutive trading sessions then, the Index may test 14300-14600-14890 levels in the near term, on that 14300 is possible this week itself. On the other hand, the weakness now lies only below 13865-13775, if the Index breaks, sustains and closes below 13775 then, it may re-test 13650-13430-13140-12900-12770 levels very soon. It looks, the Sensex may test 50k mark, just 2200 points away for this level and Nifty Index also may test 15k mark, it may happen either this month or at least before Mar 2021. Now, the India Inc., Q3 (Oct-Dec'20 quarter) results, the Union Budget which is expected to be tabled on 01st Feb'2021 and global cuses are going to be the trend decider in the Indian stock market this month.

Union BUDGET-2021:The Budget for the next fiscal starting April 2021 that, the Finance Minister Mrs. Nirmala Sitharaman, likely to present on 01st Feb'2021, will be the starting point for picking up the pieces after the economic destruction. The FM, announced a total stimulus package of Rs 29.87 lakh crore, or 15 per cent of GDP. That equals the total spending envisaged in the government’s budget for the year to March. But the actual fiscal cost has been estimated at around 1.3 per cent of GDP, including 0.7 per cent for the incentive programme whose expense is spread over five years. I will update every week about further development on the Union Budget, from next week onwards.

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were traded on the positive bias and closed in green. The Nifty Realty lead the weekly gain by 5.73%, followed by Nifty Metal gained 3.64%, Nifty Bank gained 2.71%, Nifty Auto gained 2.08%, Nifty IT gained 1.86% and Nifty FMCG, Nifty Pharma & Nifty Energy gained marginally by 0.81%, 0.72% & 0.69%, respectively. On other hand, Nifty SmallcapIndex closed on a positive note with weekly gain by 3.88% and Nifty Midcap Index closed with a weekly gain by 3%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week continued as a net buyer in the Equity segment, they bought to the tune of Rs.7408.78 crores on the net basis whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net seller, they sold all the days during last week except on Friday, to the tune of Rs.4082.72 crores on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, the FIIs continued the inflow all the days in last week to the Indian equity market,  further the flow has moved up once again last week, we should wait and watch, how they behave coming week.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR depreciated from the weekly high level i.e.,$73.74 and moved down till $72.97, closed on Friday at $73.09, the USD Vs INR as written & expected last week, moved down exatly till our support level i..e, $72.97, tested and made a weekly low $72.97,  this week the move is depends on breaking below $72.97-72.77 on the down side then, it may test $72.71-72.23-71.99-71.77. Likewise, on the higher side the USD Vs.INR may to test $73.20-73.44, if moves further above $73.44, may re-visit $73.58-73.74-73.85-73.94 levels in the near term. 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who Invested at 13150 levels, start book profit partially at 13770 levels book full profit 14k-15k levels if moves there and wait for further crorrection, to re-invest i.e, adopt Buy on dips strategy, if Nifty Index test 13150-12790 levels, to trade for a short term gains with medium term perspective, rather to wait for the long term basis.

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