For the weekend 16th Apr'21-Friday... Updated on 11.04.21, Sunday-6.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened on positive note at 14837.70, our expected opening band i.e., 14900-14955, made a weekly low 14459.50 on Monday, thereafter, the Index moved up throughtout the week, made weekly high till 14984.15, on Thursday and closed the week at 14867.35 on a flat to negative note with weekly marginal loss -38.95 points i.e.,-0.26%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, the major sectoral Indices were traded and given with mixed performance. On the positive side, Nifty Metal was leading with the weekly gain by 6.64%, followed by Nifty IT gained 5.34%, Nifty Pharma gained 5% and Nifty FMCG gained 3.12%. On on the other hand, the following sectors were given negative performance, lead by Nifty Bank, it lost -4.16%, Nifty Financial Services lost -3.12%, Nifty Energy lost -2.37%, Nifty Realty lost -1.12%, finally Nifty Auto marginally lost -0.99%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on positive note with weekly gain by 1.61% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 3.59%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week conitnued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.2339.65 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.1154.67 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI. The FIIs are adopting very cautious approach, two trading sessions during last week, they bought marginally on the net basis, but the overall position they were the net sellers, this was evident, by the USD movement, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR appreciated from the weekly low level i.e.,$73.20, it took support and moved up throughout the week, made weekly high $75.08 on Friday and closed at $74.73, as expected and written last week, it was able to take support near $73.30 and moved up till $75.08 and able to close at $74.17. This week, we may expect the broad range of consolidation between $75.08-74.95 on the higher side to $74.17-73.20 levels. If the USD vs INR moves above $74.95-75.08, then it may re-test $75.11-75.23-75.33-75.59 levels. On the other hand if it is breaks $74.53 on the lower side then, it may re-visit $74.44-74.36-74.25-74.17-73.92-736.62 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, on the domestic front, domestic data's such as IIP data for the month of Feb'21 is expected on 12th Apri'21, the Jan'21 IIP was at -1.60%, the same may be seen with a  contraction at -2-10 to -3%. The Annual Inflatiion data is expected on 12th Apr'21 and WPI Inflation date for Mar'21 also expected on 13th or 14th Apri'21, the Annual Inflatiion may rise to 5.30-5.40 from the Feb'21 levels (5.03) and WPI Inflation numbers are also may rise from the Feb'21 levels (4.17) to 5-5.50 levels. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results are expected from this week, which may kick starts by the IT major TCS releasing their Q4 results on 12th Apr, Infosys on 14th Apr and Wipro on 15th Apr, on the Banking sector the HDFC bank declaring their results on 17th Apr, on the same day ICICI Lombard also relesing their results, based on the IT segment Q4 results and their dollar guidance may set the further direction for the Index movemnet.

Covid19: The unexpected and super spreader infection of Covid-19 second wave creates a panic, especially in India, the number of Covid positive cases have been increasing day-by-day, it reached the unprecdented level of 1.52 lakhs positive cases on Saturday, which causes major concern, several states and Union territories have imposed restrictions, including partial lockdown and night curfew and tightened existing restrictions in major cities of several states, this may impact the supply chain and our Indian economy.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices hovering near $58-60 per barrel,  though any price correction in international Crude Oil prices in the near future, may not be refelected in the domestic Petrol & Disel prices, no major price drop can be expected due to the USD appreciation, it may be off-sets the Crude oil price correction.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has marginlly has come down from the last week level i.e., 39.60 times and settled on Friday at 39.53 times. 

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in positive zone, last week out of 2038 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, on that 5373 stocks were advanced and 4350 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.24 times in the overall Nifty stocks, especially in Nifty 50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 1.32 times with 140 advances and 106 declines. This datas infers that no major price correction may expect this week. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures premium was settled at 54.55 points from the last week highest level 86 poitnts, the Nifty futures OI seen with the highest level at 11308950, the option data indicated that the Nifty50 could trade in the range of 14,500-14700-15100 levels in the coming sessions. The maximum Call open interest was seen at 15,100, while maximum Put open interest was seen at 14,400. 

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 12th Apr'21, on positive note, subject to the Asian market move, near 14885-14925 if open and sustain above 14925 then, the Index may try to re-test 14985-15050-15090-15125-15180-15275-15336-15385-15431 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 14830-14755 levels, any further down move below 14755 then, the Index may re-visit 14660-14620-14540-14460-14350-14265-14160-14070 levels in the near term.

Special Mention: It seems, the Nifty Index may trade with broad range-cum-high level consolidation between 15430-14265, either of these ranges must be broken this month, mostly it depends on the outcome of India Inc. Q4 (Jan-Mar'21) results, the five states assembly election results outcome which is expected on 02nd May'21, since these results are the acid test for the present central ruling party BJP, also the widespread surges in Covid19 positive numbers are also may play major role in the Index movement, we may expect major down fall i.e., deeper price correction in the Nifty Index till 13600-12430 levels before May/Jun'2021, if the given factors listed above, disappoints the stock market, then we may witness these levels, this view may be negated only if, the Index moves and closes above 15432 for three consecutive trading sessions and coupled with weekly close, then the northward journey may continue to test 15800 levels.

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who re-invested near 14400-14300 levels during the recent down trend, start book profit near 15000-15200 levels, the stocks, you have invested gives profit 10-20% return and wait to adopt buy on dips strategy at 14400-14000 levels.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading