For the weekend 18th Feb'22-Friday... Updated on 14.02.22, Monday-06.03 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 17456.30 on Monday, it made a weekly low 17043.65 on Tuesday: thereafter, it moved up. made a weekly high 17639.45 further the Index came down till 17303 and closed the week at 17374.75 on a negative note with a weekly loss -170.75 points, i.e., -0.97%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices closed on the negative note, except Nifty Metal Index,  on the negative side the Nifty Realty lead with a weekly loss by -2.45%, followed by the Nifty FMCG lost -2.23%, Nifty IT lost -2.00%, Nifty Financial Services lost -1.49%, Nifty Healthcare lost -1.24%, Nifty Infra lost -0.89%, Nifty Bank lost -0.70%, Nifty Energy lost -0.61%, Nifth Pharma lost -0.52%, finally Nifty Auto marginally lost by -0.07%. On other hand Nifty Metal closed with a positive note by 3.33%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -2.34% as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -4.50%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.5641.81 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.3562.19 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.64, it made a weekly low $74.58 on Monday; thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high $75.68 on Friday and closed on a positive note $75.61 with a weekly gain 0.97 points i.e., 1.30%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $75.68-75.82, if moves and sustain above $75.82 then, the USD may re-test $75.87-75.92-75.98-76.06-76.20-76.28-76.36-76.44-76.52 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $75.55-75.49 then, it may re-visit $75.44-75.35-75.25-75.15-75.05-75.00-74.91-74.84 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except the India Inc. Q3 Oct-Dec'21) remaining corporate earnings.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q3(Oct-Dec'21) corporate results, so far 2396 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q3 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has come down and moved to negative zone by -4.50% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 2396 companies were at Rs.221,867.80 crore, as against in the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) the Net profit seen Rs.232,340.20 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 39.30%, last year these 2396 companies made a Net profit Rs.159,264.30 crore, the net sales/income seen at 5.70% when compared with last year in the same quarter but, QoQ basis the net sales/income gone up by 39.30%. The Major Corporates already declared their Q3 results, this week we can expect the results from other midcap and small cap companies.

Covid19: The Covid-19 spread started to move southward direction, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive cases has come down below 75k, the number of active cases also came down to 537,045, the death toll rose to 508,665, the daily death rate maintaining above 700 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 172.81 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 95.64 crore, second dose 75.45 crore and pre-caution dose around 1.73 crore.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $88.50-94.60 per barrel and hovering above $88, due to rising worries over escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions and USD vs INR also, trading above $75, though the International Crude price moved up above $94 per barrel, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for a couple of months, due to ensuing state election in UP, Punjab.Uttrakhand, Manipur and Goa, all these elections may be held during Feb & Mar'22.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down, from the last week levels, i.e., 23.56 times and settled on Friday at 22.68 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index) last week, has come down marginally from the previous week levels, i.e., 18.90 to 18.68, this week also the intra volatility may be at a elevated levels between 16-22 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the negative zone, out of 2171 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 4267 stocks advanced and 6349 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.67 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR also, moved to the negative zone at 0.92 times with 120 advances and 130 declines, this data infers that, there was some profit booking seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, but, the Nifty Bank Index ADR continued to be in the positive zone at 1.07 times with 31 advances & 29 declines, it infers that, the sell-off not happpened in Banking stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a discount 18.95 points from the previous week premium level 13.35 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved down from the last week level 1.02 to 0.98. The more open interest seen 17300 PUT option and 17400 Call Option, any further move is possible only by moving above 17500-17600 to test 17800-18000 or if moves below 17300 then, the Index may re-test 17200-17100 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: Last week, the Nifty Index took support from our threshold levels i.e., near 17060 and pull back rally took the index near 17660 and closed near 17400 levels, by considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a negative note near 17310-17270-17210, subject to the Asian indices movement, if the index moves below 17245-17210 then it may try to re-visit 17135-17085-17045-16995-16950-16930-16885-16835-16765-16688 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index moves above 17400-17455 then, it may re-test 17515-17575-17640-1770-17795-17840-17900-17970-18025-18100-18130 levels in the near term, the Nifty Index may trade in a broad based range bound move between 17000-17800 for some more trading sessions, further weaklness possible only by breaking either of these ranges to  take further direction, towards 18k-18200 levels on the higher side or to break 17k to test 16800-16400 levels. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 38592.05, on opening move, it made a weekly low 37319.05 thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high 39197.20 and closed at 38517.25 with a weekly loss -272.10 points, i.e., -0.70%, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above 38855-39070-39190 levels, further move above 39190 then, it may try to re-test 39270-39425-39470-39540-38570-39670-39800-39850 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 39190-39270, further it moves below 38395-38290 then, the Index may try to re-visit 38250-38035-37900-37760-37540-37320-37095-36915-36800-36735-36650-36555-36375 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who booked the profit near 17700-17800, try to re-invest near 17200-16800-16400 levels, on a shot to medium term perspective to gain 5-10% in top Nifty 100 stocks, especially in IT Segment.

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