For the weekend  19th Mar'21-Friday... Updated on 15.03.21, Monday-6.30 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened on positive note at 15002.45, our expected opening band i.e., 14995-15070, made weekly low at 14919.90 on Monday, thereafter, the Index moved up till 15336.30, further the mild sell-off dragged the Index till 14953.60 on Friday and closed the week at 15030.95 on positive note with weekly gain by 92.85 points i.e., 0.62%. 

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 15th Mar'21, on positive note, subject to the Asian market move, near 15070-15140, if open and sustain above 15140 then, the Index may try to re-test 15180-15225-15290-15335-15385-15430-15500-15585-15690 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 15020-14960 levels, any further down move below 14960 then, the Index may re-visit 14920-14840-14775-14700-14660-14605-14580-14525-14470-14410-14300-14205 levels.

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, as well as on the domestic front, other then the US Fed policy meet on global side and India Inc. remaining corporate companies quarterly results for the Q3 (Oct-Dec'20 quarter), as of 13th Mar'21, 3940 companies announced their Q3 numbers, the Q-o-Q basis net profit has lost the positive momentum and just maintaining marginal gain about 0.50%, when compares with the last quarter. On Y-o-Y basis, it is sustaining the growth at 65.10%, compares with the same period last year Dec'19, we should wait and watch the remaining corporate companies results, in the ensuing days. The rise in Crude Oil price almost reached near $68 per barrel (now trading near at $65-66 per barrel) may give negative impact on the Indian Economy, the Inflation rates are moving northwards, the Annual Inflation rate for the month of Feb'21 has moved to 5.03%, when compares with the Jan'21 it was at 4.06%. Across all the sectors, the prices are soaring up, it is already evident in the India Inc. Q3 results, when compares with the Sep'20 Quarter the sales was Rs.15,50,208.70 Crore, whereas during Dec'20 quarter the Sales has moved up by 16.60% i.e., Rs.18,06,986.30 Crore, but the Net profit not moved up correspondingly, it is maintaing at the same level with a marginal increase by only 0.50%, it infers that the expenditure had eaten away the revenue made through the excess sales. if the Crude oil price is sustain at $66-70 per barrel, impact more on the India Inc, the same will be reflected in the final Quarter i.e., Q4 (utpo Mar'21) and also, one more evident seen in the Indian Economy i.e., the Indian IIP Data released on 12th Mar'21 for the month Jan'21, it has once again moved to negative territory from the Dec'20 levels i.e., 1.60% to -1.60%, further global weakness and rising the US bond rates may give the negative Funds flow by the FIIs, these are the trend deciders for the market direction in the near term, price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved up  from the last week level i.e., 40.76 times and settled on Friday at 40.94 times. 

Special Mention: Last week, the Nifty Index as written and expected it was trading with the range mentioned last week, it was consolidating with in the range, unable to break either of the ranges i.e., 15431.75 on the upper side, as well as not broken the 14467.75 on the lower side also, we wiill have to wait and watch how the Nifty Index trades this week, to break these ranges either side  at least this week. It seems, the Nifty may not break either of these levels, it may trade with in these ranges this week too, it may trade inside week pattern. If the, Index moves above the recent all time high i.e.,15431.75 point, then it may test 15690-15900 levels, at the same time, if the Nifty Index breaks below 14467.75, then it may re-visit 14300-14165-14000 levels in the near term.

Sector wise performance: Last week, the major sectoral Indices were traded with negative and positive bias. except Nifty IT, Nifty Financial Service, Nifty  Bank  and Nifty Energy. The Nifty Realty was leading with the weekly loss by -2.33%, followed by Nifty Auto lost -1.33%, Nifty FMCG lost -0.87%, Nifty Metal lost -0.75% and Nifty Pharma marginally lost -0.07%. At the same time the Nifty IT was gained 2.61%, Nifty Financial Services gained 0.98%, Nifty Bank gained 0.76% and Nifty Energy gained by 0.36%. On the other hand, Nifty Midcap Index closed on positive note with weekly gain by 0.15% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 1.37%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week continued as a net buyer in the Equity segment, they bought to the tune of Rs.349.09 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, turned as a net buyer, they bouhgt to the tune of Rs.2017.64 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI. We must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds flow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR depreciated from the weekly high level i.e.,$73.40 and moved down till $72.57 and closed on Friday at $72.68, as expected and written last week, it was not able to move above $73.43, the brief weakness dragged once again till $72.57. This week, if the USD vs INR moves down below $72.57-72.34 then, it may try to re-visit $72.25-72.00-71.76. On the other hand if it is able to move up above $73.40-73.62 on the upper side then, it may re-test $73.78-73.94-74.10-74.17-74.36-74.60-74.95 levels in the near term. 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who started to invest near 14500 levels, hold the positions and further investment can be made near 14300-14000 levels, if the Nifty trades near these levels for the medium term perspective to gain 5-15% reuturn in Nifty 50 stocks and if the Nifty moves near 15300-15430 levels then book profit and wait for the correction to re-invest at 14600-14300 levels in the Nifty index.

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