For the weekend 13th Aug'21-Friday... Updated on 08.08.21, Sunday-10.41 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 15874.90; on opening move, it made a weekly low 15834.65 on Monday, thereafter it moved up throughout the week and made a weekly high 16336.75 on Friday, further it closed the week at 16238.20 on a positive note with a huge weekly gain 475.05 points i.e., 3.01%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the sectoral indices closed with a positive bias, the Nifty Financial Service was leading with a weekly gain by 4.05%, followed by Nifty Bank gained 3.54%, Nifty IT gained 2.70%, Nifty Energy gained 2.52%, Nifty Auto gained 2%, Nifty FMCG gained 1.71%, Nifty Metal gained 1.23%, Nifty Realty gained 1.20%, finally Nifty Pharma gained 0.64% Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain by 0.47%, whereas the Nifty Smallcap Index closed with a weekly loss by -0.88%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, turned as a net buyer in the Equity segment, after they sold six straight weeks in the Indian stock market,  this week they bought to the tune of Rs.2616.04 crore on the net basis; as well as, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.896.84 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds inflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.38, made a weekly high at $74.48 on Monday; thereafter, it moved down and made a weekly low till $74.04 on Friday, on the same day it moved up once again till $74.45 and closed the week with a positive note at $74.43, This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $74.48-74.57 if moves and sustain above $74.57 then, the USD may re-test $74.63-74.73-74.79-74.83-74-87-74.98-75.10 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.33-74-25 then, it may re-visit $74.20-74.14-74.09-74.04-73.93-73.88-73.81-73.75 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as on the domestic front, except the Indian IIP data is expected this week, finally the remaining India Inc.  Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results and Covid third wave developments, we must watch this week. 

Q1-2021-2022 Earnings: The India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results, so far 1045 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q1 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop and moved to the negative zone by -11.50% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 1045 companies were at Rs.138,177.40 crore, as against in the Q4 (Jan-Mar'21) the Net profit seen Rs.153,139.60 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 151.30%, last year these 1045 companies made a Net profit Rs.54,996.80 crore. Till last week, almost all major corporate companies delared their Q1(2021-2022) results, this week Siemens, Tata tele-services and other midcap/small cap sector companies will declare their Q1 numbers.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive below 40k mark, the number of active cases now at 412153 the death toll rose to 427,371 the daily death rate moved above 600 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, if the daily positive numbers are down steadily, may be from this month, the normalcy may return, subject to the vaccination drive happens in a full swing (as on date, the vaccination status stands at 50.10 crore) and the third wave of the covid19.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has come down from $71.90 to $67.85 per barrel and hovering around $68-69, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to sell above Rs.102 mark without any major changes in the last 20 days, since the International Crude price is steady at $70, the recent OPEC Meet, the OPEC countries agreed to increase the production from Aug to Dec'21 by a further 2 billion bpd or 0.40 bpd a month, this decision has dragged down once again the Crude Oil price to $68 per barrel.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level, i.e., 27.01 times and settled on Friday at 26.51 times. The lower PE valuation around 26.50 -27 times, is due to the Nifty50 stocks Q4 good numbers when compared with last year at the same quarter.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a negative zone, out of 2076 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 4703 stocks were advanced and 5378 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 0.97 times. At the same time, in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained on the positive zone at 1.48 times with 149 advances and 101 declines, this data infers that, the value buy seen in Nifty50, especially in the Nifty Bank and Nifty Financial Services stocks rather than NSE listed stocks, this was evident by the ADV(Average Daily Volume) stood at Rs.68,814.05 crore (last week Rs.70,196.02 crore) on the overall NSE stocks, as against Rs.27,135.45 crore (last week Rs.26,338.87 crore) on the Nifty50 stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty future was settled at a premium by 13.50 points from the last week premium level 14.20 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as of Friday at 12316750 i.e.,246,335 lots, when compared with the last week level 9419800 i.e., 188,396 lots. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has gone up from 0.90 to 0.93, the maximum open interest seen in 16400 PUT option, it indicates this week, the Nifty may test 16400-16500 levels and 16000 levels may act as a strong support.

This week Nifty Trend:  Nifty Index last week has given a clear breakout above 15962 on Tuesday, the strong buying support by the FIIs & DIIs, helped the Nifty Index to continue the northward rally and made a fresh all time till 16349.45 and close well above our threshold support levels i.e,,15962. By considering the above micro and macro data, I conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday must move above 16300-16350-16370 then, it may try to test till 16410-16465-16590-16710 levels in the near term. On the other hand, any weakness at 16300-16350 levels, may drag the Index once again till 16175-15962-15835-15780 levels.  

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested near 15600-15500, may book profit till 16300-16400-16600 and wait for a further dip to re-invest in the Nifty50 stocks, again at Nifty Index levels 15600-15780 levels with a short term perspective to gain 5-15%.

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