For the weekend 23rd Jul'21-Friday... Updated on 18.07.21, Sunday-08.10 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 15766.80; on opening move, it made a weekly low at 15644.75 on Monday, thereafter it moved up the rest of the days and made a weekly high 15962.25 on Friday and closed the week at 15923.40 on a positive note with a weekly gain 233.60 points i.e., 1.49%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the sectoral indices closed with a positive bias, Nifty Realty was leading with a weekly gain by 8.03%, followed by Nifty IT gained 2.57%, Nifty Metal gained 2.23%, Nifty Bank gained 1.94%, Nifty Pharma gained 1.91%, Nifty Financial Services gained 1.77%, Nifty Energy gained 0.34%, finally the Nifty FMCG and Nifty Auto gained marginally by 0.19% & 0.08%, respectively. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain by 1.71% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 4.20%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.2667.16 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.3233 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.49, made a weekly low at $74.40 on Monday; thereafter, it moved up and made a weekly high till $74.84 and closed the week with a negative note at $74.64, This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $74.61-74.84, if moves and sustain above $74.84 then, the USD may re-test $74.90-74.97-75.11-75.27-75.40-75.65 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.56-74.49, then it may re-visit $74.44-74.39-74.31-74.27-74.15-74.03-73.92-73.76-73.69 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as on the domestic front, except the India Inc.  Q1(Apr-Jun'21) results and Covid19 developments, we must watch this week. 

Q1-2021-2022 Earnings: The India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results, so far 71 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q1 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit seen a dip and moved to the negative zone by -4.60% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 71 companies were at Rs.17,518 crore Vs. Rs.18,369.30 crore (Q4-Jan-Mar'21). Likewise, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 31.80% i.e., Rs.17,518 crore, last year these 71 companies made a Net profit Rs.13,296.90 crore, this week the following major corporates will declare their Q1 numbers, they are: ACC, HCL Tech, HDFC Life, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Auto, Bajaj Holdings, ICICI Securities, ICICI Prudential, Reliance, ITC, Yes Bank, ICICI Bank & JSW Steel etc., the results may dictate further move on the Nifty Index for the ensuing weeks.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive below 45k, the number of active cases now at 422,660 the death toll rose to 413,609 the daily death rate also declined below 600 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, if the daily positive numbers are down steadily, maybe from July-August the normalcy may return, subject to the vaccination drive happens in a full swing (as on date, the vaccination status stands at 40.49 crore) and the third wave of the covid19.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has come down from $75.30 to $70.50 per barrel and hovering around $71-72, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to move up across the country and it is sustaining above Rs.102 mark, since the International Crude price is steady at $71-72, the recent OPEC Meet, the OPEC countries agreed to increase the production from Aug to Dec'21 by a further 2 billion bpd or 0.40 bpd a month, this decision may drag the Crude Oil price further, let us wait and see and USD vs. INR trading near $74.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level, i.e., 28.33 times and settled on Friday at 28.27 times. The lower PE valuation around 28-29 times, is due to the India Inc.,Q4 good numbers.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a positive zone, out of 2067 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5212 stocks were advanced and 4777 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.09 times. At the same time, in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 1.16 times with 133 advances and 115 declines, this data infers that, the value buy seen in NSE listed stocks and Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty future was settled at premium by 12.60 points from the last week premium level 33.05 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen in 9457250 when compared with the last week level i.e.,92648400. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has gone up from 0.91 to 0.92, the maximum PUT open interest seen in 15600-15400 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 15900-16000 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may face strong support seen 15600-15400 this week and 15900-16000 may act as strong support.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty Index on Monday, may open with a negative note near 15880-15860, subject to the Asian Indices movement, if the Index moves below 15860 then, the it may test 15835-15780-15760-15730-15710-15675-15640-15605-15565-15510-15450 levels. On the other hand, the Index may face resistance near 15915-15970 further, move above 15970 then, it may test 15995-16020-16045-16070-16100-16145-16180-16220 levels in the near term.  

Special Mention: Nifty Index made a fresh all time high till 15962, it must move above 15970 above for three consecutive trading sessions with a weekly close, may take the Nifty index till 16070-16220 levels in the near term. Any weakness at 15915-15970, may drag the Index once again till 15780-15635 levels, below 15635, if the Index moves below, then it may re-visit till 15450 level very soon, it seems the Index may trade in a broad range bound move between 16000-15400 for some more trading sessions, further trend may emerge based on the domestic data, global sentiment especially the Crude oil price and the India Inc, Q1 numbers. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested near 15600, may book profit till 15900-16100 and wait for a further dip to re-invest again at 15600-15450  levels with a short term perspective to gain 5-15% , on the Nifty50 stocks.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading