For the weekend 25th Feb'22-Friday... Updated on 20.02.22, Sunday-06.03 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note with gap down at 17076.15 on Monday, it made a weekly low 16809.65 on the same day; thereafter, it moved up. made a weekly high 17490.60 further the Index came down till 17219 and closed the week at 17276.30 on a negative note with a weekly loss -69.25 points, i.e., -0.40%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices closed on the negative note, except Nifty IT Index, on the negative side the Nifty Realty lead with a weekly loss by -4.07%, followed by the Nifty Realty lost -2.78%, Nifty Bank lost -2.38%, Nifty Pharma lost -2.23%, Nifty Healthcare lost -2.03%, Nifty Financial Services lost -1.56%, Nifty Auto lost -1.15%, Nifty Infra lost -0.98%, Nifty FMCG lost -0.47%, finally Nifty Energy marginally lost by -0.04%. On other hand Nifty Metal closed with a positive note by 0.30%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -2.67% as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -3.39%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.12209.48 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.10592.21 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $75.61, it made a weekly high $75.72 on Tueday; thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high $75.68 on Friday and closed on a negative note $74.57 with a weekly loss -1.04 points i.e., -1.38%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $74.70-74.84, if moves and sustain above $74.84 then, the USD may re-test $74.92-75.01-75.07-75.14-75.28-75.33-75.38-75.43-75.47-75.58-75.72-75.79-75.87 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.47-74.41 then, it may re-visit $74.33-74.25-74.18-73.94-73.83-73.71 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except the India Inc. Q3 Oct-Dec'21) remaining corporate earnings.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q3(Oct-Dec'21) corporate results, so far 3876 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q3 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has come down and moved to negative zone by -2.30% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 3876 companies were at Rs.230,982.60 crore, as against in the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) the Net profit seen Rs.236,405.80 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 38.70%, last year these 3876 companies made a Net profit Rs.166,488.70 crore, the net sales/income seen at 7.00%, when compared with last year in the same quarter but, QoQ basis the net sales/income gone up by 38.70%. The Major Corporates already declared their Q3 results, this week we can expect the results from other midcap and small cap companies.

Covid19: The Covid-19 spread started to move southward direction, as of today the country everyday covid positive cases has come down below 25k, the number of active cases also came down to 224,187, the death toll rose to 511,903, the daily death rate maintaining above 650 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 175.37 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 96.09 crore, second dose 77.38 crore and pre-caution dose around 1.73 crore.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved down from $95.80-89.10 per barrel and hovering above $89, due to rising worries over escalating Ukraine-Russia tensions and USD vs INR also, trading near $75, the International Crude price came down to $89 per barrel, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for a couple of months, due to ensuing state election in UP, Punjab.Uttrakhand, Manipur and Goa, all these elections may be held during Feb & Mar'22.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down, from the last week levels, i.e., 22.68 times and settled on Friday at 22.21 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index) last week, has gone up from the previous week levels, i.e., 18.68 to 22.17, this week also the intra volatility may be at an elevated level between 19.24 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the negative zone, out of 2179 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 4413 stocks advanced and 6277 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.70 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR also, moved to the negative zone at 0.67 times with 100 advances and 149 declines, this data infers that, there was some profit booking seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, but, the Nifty Bank Index ADR turned to the negative zone at 0.46 times with 19 advances & 41 declines, it infers that, the sell-off happened in Banking stocks too.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a premium 1.75 points from the previous week discount level 18.95 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved down from the last week level 1.02 to 0.98. The more open interest seen 17300 PUT option and 17200-17100 Call Option, any further move is possible only by moving above 17300-17400 to test 17600-17800 or if moves below 17100 then, the Index may re-test 17000 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: Last week, the Nifty Index took support from our threshold levels i.e., near 16835 and pull back rally took the index near 17500 and closed very well below 17375 levels, by considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a negative note near 17220-17185, subject to the Asian indices movement, if the index moves below 17185-17150 then, it may try to re-visit 17085-16970-16925-16810-16740-16688-16650-16480-16410 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index moves above 17300-17380 then, it may re-test 17460-17510-17580-17675-17795-17910-18060-18170 levels in the near term, the Nifty Index may trade in a broad based range bound move between 16800-17800 for some more trading sessions, further weakness possible only by breaking either of these ranges to  take further direction, towards 18k-18200 levels on the higher side or to break 16800 to test 16400 levels. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 37664, on opening move, it made a weekly high 38461.70 thereafter, it moved down, made a weekly low 36651.65 and closed at 37599.15 with a weekly loss -988.10 points, i.e., -2.38%, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above 37760-37820-37960 levels, further move above 37960 then, it may try to re-test 38125-38230-38370-38495-38620-38810-38975-39080-39190 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 37760-37820-37960, further it moves below 37425-37305 then, the Index may try to re-visit 37210-37075-36865-36650-36400-36080 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who booked the profit near 17700-17800, try to re-invest near 17200-17000-16800 levels, on a shot to medium term perspective to gain 5-10% in top Nifty 100 stocks.

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