For the weekend 28th Jan'22-Friday... Updated on 23.01.22, Sunday-04.23 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 18235.55 on Monday, it made a weekly high 18350.95 and moved down thorughout the week, made a weekly low 17485.85 on Friday and closed the week at 17617.15 on a negative note with a weekly loss -638.60 points, i.e., -3.50%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices closed on the negative side, except Nifty Energy index, on the negative side the Nifty IT lead with a weekly loss -7.14%, followed by the Nifty Healthcare lost -5.73%, Nifty Pharma lost -5.16%, Nifty Realty lost -3.61%, Nifty Infra lost -3.34%, Nifty financial Services lost -2.80%, Nifty FMCG lost -2.65%, Nifty Bank lost -2.07% and Nifty Auto lost marginally by -0.70%. On the other side, Nifty Energy closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 0.76%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -4.46%, as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -4.14%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.12643.61 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.508.04 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.16, it made a weekly low $74.13 on Monday; thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high $74.71 on Wednesday, further moved down and closed on a positive note $74.42 with a weekly gain 0.26 points i.e., 0.35%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $74.48-74.55 if moves and sustain above $74.55 then, the USD may re-test $74.70-74.79-4.82-74.87-74.94-75.05-75.11-75.16-75.28-75.45 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.12-73.97 then, it may re-visit $73.94-73.88-73.82-73.76-73.71-73.62 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except India Inc. Q3 Oct-Dec'21) corporate earnings.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q3(Oct-Dec'21) corporate results, so far 267 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q3 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 11% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 267 companies were at Rs.60,608.50 crore, as against in the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) the Net profit seen Rs.54,606.60 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 14%, last year these 267 companies made a Net profit Rs.53,182.80 crore. Major Corporates started to declare their Q3 results, this week we can expect the results from HDFC AMC, SBI Card,Colgate, CIPLA, India Bulls Real,Maruti Suzuki,BHEL, Canara Bank, LIC Housing, Dr. Reddys lab, NTPC etc.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a northward move, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive cases moved up around 3.33 lakhs, the number of active cases now at 2187,205, the death toll rose to 489,409, the daily death rate has moved up above 525 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 161.93 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 88.58 crore, second dose 68.39 crore and between 15-18 years, they got the vaccination around 4.16 crore. The Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron has been spreading all over the world, jitter across the global countries, India's Omicron count is around 8209 as of Sunday. According to the World Health Organisation, the new variant is less lethal but likely to spread at a higher speed hence, we must wait and watch the further development.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $83-87 per barrel and once again moved down till $83 and hovering above $84 and USD vs INR also, trading near $74, though the International  Crude price moveed from $67 to $87 per barrel, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for a couple of month, due to ensuing states election in UP, Punjab.Uttarkhand, Manipur and Goa, all these elections may be held during Feb & Mar'22.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved down, from the last week levels, i.e., 25.30 times and settled on Friday at 24.29 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index) last week, has gone up from the previous week levels, i.e., 16.56 to 18.89. It seems, this week the intra volatility may be at a higher levels between 16-20 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the negative zone, out of 2190 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 4223 stocks advanced and 6467 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.65 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has moved to the negative zone at 0.52 times with 85 advances and 164 declines, this data infers that, the profit booking  seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks and also, the Nifty Bank Index ADR moved to the negative zone at 0.74 times with 25 advances & 34 declines, it infers that, some profit booking seen in Banking & Financial stocks too.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a flat note with a premium 0.05 points from the previous week premium level 39.25 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved up marginally from the last week level 0.88 to 0.90. The more open interest seen 17400-17300 PUT option and 17600-17800 Call Option, any further move is possible only by moving above 17700-17800 to test 18000 or if moves below 17300 then, the Index may re-test 17100 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The weak global cues, especially in the USA, the Dow Jones witnessed a sell-off due to the FED rate hike fear, the IT stocks moved down, that was reflected in our Indian stock market too, the Nifty IT index also dropped over 7% last week, further the much awaited giant IPO i.e., LIC, which is expected to come before Mar'22, after our Union Budget, these things have ignited the sell-off cum profit booking and dragged the Nifty Index last week from the threshold resistance zone 18350 to 17485 levels, by considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a negative note near 17570-17485, subject to the Asian indices movement, if the index moves below 17610-17570-17485 then it may try to re-visit 17380-17265-17150-17010-16830 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index takes support 17600-17380 and moves above 17710-17815 levels, then it may try to re-test 17915-17945-18020-18095-18170-18250-18350 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 38212.55, on opening move, it made a weekly high 38855.55 thereafter, it moved down throughout the week, made a weekly low 37224.25 and closed at 37574.30 with a weekly loss -796.10 points, i.e., -2.07%, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above 37590-37680 levels, further move above 37680 then, it may try to re-test 37740-37850-38040-38165-38230-38330-38375-38450-38620-38855 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 37600-37680, further it moves below 37420-37225 then, the Index may try to re-visit 37090-36815-36755-36545-36490-36270-36000 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who booked full profit near 18350 levels, start investing in a partial manner 17500-17350-17150 levels, in a Nifty100 stock with a medium term perspective to gain a profit between 6-9-15%.

Further details please do call us on 98410 48022 or contact thro' WhatsApp: 99624 70636. Please read carefully, the Disclaimer published on the Disclaimer page.

Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading.