For the weekend 22nd Oct'21-Friday... Updated on 17.10.21, Sunday-9.59 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note i.e., 17867.55; on Monday, it made a weekly low 17839.10 thereafter, the Index moved up throughout the week, made a weekly high till 18350.75 on Thursday and closed the week at 18338.55 on a positive note with a weekly gain 443.35 points i.e., 2.48%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, almost all the major sectoral indices were closed with a positive note, except Nifty IT, on the positive side, the Nifty Auto index leading with a weekly gain 6.51%, followed by the Nifty Metal gained 5.94%, Nifty Health gained 4.48%, Nifty Bank gained 4.14%, Nifty Energy gained 3.61%, Nifty Realty gained 3.52% and Nifty FMCG gained 3.46%, Nifty Infra gained 2.87% and Nifty Financial Services gained 1.22%. On the other hand, Nifty IT closed with a weekly loss -1.81. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 3.39%; as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a positive note  with a weekly gain 2.57%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, turned as a net buyer in the Equity segment, this week they bought to the tune of Rs.1037.37 crore on the net basis; at the same time, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's also, turned as a net seller, they sold to the tune of Rs.3296.81 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds inflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $75.11, made a weekly low $74.94 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved up and made a weekly high $75.66, further it moved down on Thursday till weekly low and closed the week with a negative note at $75. This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $75.10-75.21, if moves and sustain above $75.21 then, the USD may re-test $75.30-75.38-75.45-75.51-75.58-75.66-75.77-75.86-75.95-76.02 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.94-74.85 then, it may re-visit $74.74-74.61-74.44-74.36-74.31-74.28-74.11-73.96 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as, on the domestic front except the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings this week, already major IT companies announced their Q2 numbers.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 60 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit gone up to the positive zone by 20% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 60 companies were at Rs.22,178.60 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.18,486.40 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 26.60%, last year these 60 companies made a Net profit Rs.17,521.60 crore. This week, LT Infotech, ACC,HUL, ICICI Pru, ICICI Securities,ICICI Lombard,IDBI,JSW Steel,LIC Housing, TVS Motors,Reliance, ICICI Bank,Yes Bank and other midcap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed a flat trend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive below 20k, the number of active cases now at 195,846 the death toll rose to 452,124 the daily death rate has moved down around 150 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, the daily positive numbers are moving down, may be from Oct-Nov, the Covid infected numbers may rise due to the ensuing festive seasons across the India, it depends on the vaccination drive, around 97.66 crores vaccinations are used till now.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $74 to $82 per barrel with upward bias and hovering above $82, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to move up and sell above Rs.105-110 mark, since the International Crude price hovering near $82 and USD Vs.INR is also hovering above $75, hence, the oil marketing companies continue to rise the Petrol and Diesel price.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has gone up from the last week levels, i.e., 27.40 times and  settled on Thursday at 28.02 times. The lower PE valuation around 28 times, is due to the changes have been made in the PE calculation from 01st Apr'21 i.e., from an existing pattern of standalone profit, to the consolidated profit and Nifty50 stocks Q2 good numbers when compared with last year at the same quarter.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a positive zone, out of 2121 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5331 stocks advanced and 4992 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 1.08 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR seen in a positive zone at 1.68 times with 156 advances and 93 declines, this data infers that, more buying interest seen in the Nifty50 stocks, rather than NSE listed stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty future was settled at a premium 16.45 points from the last week premium level 4.90 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as of Thursday at 12176000 i.e.,243520 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 12717100 i.e., 254342 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has gone up to 0.87, from the last week level, i.e., 0.82, the maximum open interest seen in 18300 PUT option and 18400-18500 CALL options, it indicates the Nifty may face a strong hurdle near 18500 and  18300 levels, may act as a strong support, further weakness only below 18300 levels, likewise any further up move is possible only if, the index moves and close above 18500 levels, this week.

This week Nifty Trend: Nifty Index as written last week, the northward journey lifted the index till 18350.75 and closed well above 18300 levels. By considering the above mentioned micro, macro data and other factors I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note to test 18390-18415-18440 subject to the Asian indices movement if, moves above 18440 then, the northward rally may continue to test till 18510-18575-18660-18745 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 18440-18510 levels and moves below 18350-18200 levels then, the weakness may drag the Index till 18050-17950 levels further, sell-off below 17950 then, the Index may re-visit 17790-17620 levels in the near term. We can expect a short term technical sell-off this week till 18250-18050 levels, trade with caution at the higher levels, the India Inc. Q2 results, International Crude Oil price and Global cues may drive the Nifty index this week. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested in Nifty50 stocks around 17500 levels, book profit 10-20% or around 18400-18550 levels in the Nifty Index and adopt buy on dips strategy to invest in the Nifty50 stocks.

Further details please do call us on 98410 48022 or contact thro' WhatsApp: 99624 70636. Please read carefully, the Disclaimer published on the Disclaimer page.

Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading