For the weekend  06th Nov'20-Friday... Updated on  01.11.20, Sunday-08.51 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened with positive note at 11937.40, near our expected opening band i.e, 11975-12025, it made weekly high 11942.05 on the opening day, thereafter the Index witnessed a sell-off till 11535.45 and closed at 11642.40 with a weekly loss by 287.75 points i.e.,-2.41%. 

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 02nd Nov'20, on flat to positive note, subject to the Asian market move, to test 11660-11685, if open and sustain above 11685 then, the Index may try to test 11750-11775-11825-11880-11920-11975-12025-12070-12150 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 11620-11535, any further weakness below 11535 then, the Index may test 11450-11405-11375-11335-11305-11250 levels.

Key Events: This week, the major key events are expected on the Global front; the US Presidential Election which is scheduled on 03rd Nov'20-Tuesday night, but the results may come after a week or so, since the US Supreme Court direction on some province to count the votes after 3-7 days from the voting day, hence the full results may be known on or before 10th Nov'20, but the exit polls can expect from 03rd Nov onwards, the FED policy meet is slated on 06th Nov-Friday, other than this no other major events are expected. On the domestic front, the Q2 (Jul-Sep'20) India Inc. quarterly results for the remaining corporate companies are awaited, so, far, on the total of 4248 companies, 485 companies were declared their Q2 results, they made a net profit 628.30% when compared with the Q1 net profit on QoQ basis and YoY basis the net profit also moved to Rs.82126.80 Crs from the same period last year it was at R,s -1252.30 Crores i.e., Sep'19, though the net profit numbers shows the tremendous growth, but the Sales/Income are not seen the major turnaround, we should wait and watch the remaining corporate companies results,in the ensuing days. The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, last week has come down to 31.56 times and settled in 31.90 times as of Friday. 

Special Mention: Last week, the Nifty Index unable to move above 12025 and the weakness at 11820-11660, dragged the Index till 11535 due to the global weakness, the US Presidential election, triggered a global sell-off with high volatility across the global stcck market, the FIIs are strarted to booking the profit since Wedensday last week, the Nifty Index broken the threshold level i.e., 11660-11620 and just tested 11535 levels, moved and closed above 11620, in the coming week, the Index must trade and close above 11660-11750 to continue the upward momentum to test once again 11950-12025-12070, else any weakness below 11535, if breaks this level and closes below 11620-11535, then the sell-off may be intensified till 11450-11300-11250 levels by this week. Let see, how it opens on Monday, whether it hold at 11620-11535 levels or not, the India Vix-Volatility Index has moved up till 26.30 from the range of 18-20 levels, it infers the volatility may rule the Nifty Index this week.   

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were traded on the negative bias and closed in red except Nifty Energy: The Nifty Auto lead the weekly loss by -4.15% followed by, Nifty Metal lost -4.07%, Nifty Realty lost -2.93, Nifty IT lost -2.82%, Nifty Bank lost -2.36%, Nifty Pharma lost -2.25%, finally the Nifty FMCG marginally lost by -1.19%. At the same time the Nifty Energy closed with a weekly gain marginally by 0.51%. Nifty mid cap index closed with a weekly loss i.e, -1.39% & Nifty small cap index closed on a negative note with weekly loss by -2.92%.

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week continued as a net buyer in the Equity segment, they bought to the tune of Rs.972.66 crores on the net basis whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net seller, they sold all the days during last week, to the tune of Rs.2170.78 crores on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, the FIIs continued the inflow in till Tuesday, then the global sell-off due to, the US Presidential election, the FIIs started the sellinng from Wednesday, in to the Indian equity market, it looks they may continue the selling this week too, we should wait and watch, how they behave coming week.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR appreciated from the weekly low level i.e.,$73.61 and moved up till $74.70, closed on Friday at $74.49, last week I have written that, if the USD moves above $73.87-74.03 on the higher side, then it may test $74.32-74.46 levels, as expected it moved and tested $74.70, now further appreciation is depends on breaking above $74.70 on the higher side, any further up move this level then, it may test $74.85-74.93-75.10-75.30-75.50 levels. On the other hand, the support lies at $74.32-74.19, below this level, it may try to re-test $74.04-73.87-73.61-73.30 levels.

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who booked profit at 12k mark, may start to re-invest i.e, adopt Buy on dips strategy, if Nifty Index test 11500-11300 levels, to trade for a short term gains with medium term perspective, rather to wait for the long term basis.

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