For the weekend 17th Mar'22-Thursday... Updated on 13.03.22, Sunday-6.03 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 15867.95 on Monday, it made a weekly low 15671.45 on Tuesday; thereafter, it moved up. made a weekly high 16757.30 and closed the week at 16630.45 on a positive note with a weekly gain 385.10 points, i.e., 2.37%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices closed on a positive note, the Nifty Healthcare lead with a weekly gain by 6.41%, followed by the Nifty Pharma gained 6.34%, Nifty IT gained 3.43%, Nifty Realty gained 3.30%, Nifty Infra gained 3.04%, Nifty Metal gained 2.99%, Nifty FMCG gained 2.85%, Nifty Energy gained 2.09%, Nifty Auto gained 0.84%, Nifty Financial Services gained 0.53%, finally Nifty Bank marginally gained 0.40%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 2.51% as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also closed on a positive note with a weekly gain  4.17%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.24688.44 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.17729.21 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $76.42, it made a weekly high $77.22 on the same day; thereafter, it moved down, made a weekly low $76.06 on Thursday and closed on a positive note $74.57 with a weekly gain 0.33 points i.e., 0.42%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $76.76-76.82, if moves and sustain above $76.82 then, the USD may re-test $76.88-76.97-77.03-77.08-77.22-77.34-77.45-77.53 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $76.64-76.50 then, it may re-visit $76.44-76.33-76.20-76.13-76.05-75.95-75.84-75.75 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, except the US FED Policy which is scheduled on 16th Mar; as well as, on the domestic front no major events are expected, except the India WPI Inflation data and remaining India Inc. Q3 Oct-Dec'21) corporate earnings.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q3(Oct-Dec'21) corporate results, so far 4153 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q3 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has come down and moved to negative zone by -2.50% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 4153 companies were at Rs.231,323.30 crore, as against in the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) the Net profit seen Rs.237,324.40 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 38.70%, last year these 4153 companies made a Net profit Rs.166,808 crore, the net sales/income seen at 6.60%, when compared with last year in the same quarter but, QoQ basis the net sales/income gone up by 25%. All the Major Corporates already declared their Q3 results, except the few companies yet to declare their results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 spread started to move southward direction, as of today the country everyday covid positive cases have come down below 3k, the number of active cases also came down to 35,069, the death toll rose to 515,850, the daily death rate also has come down below 150 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 180.13 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 96.71 crore, second dose 81.30 crore and pre-caution dose around 2.12 crore.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has come down from $130 to $104 per barrel and hovering near $109, due to the ongoing war between Ukiane vs. Russia, lifted the Crude prices till $130, the USD vs INR also trades near $77, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for a couple of months, though the state elections in UP, Punjab.Uttrakhand, Manipur and Goa got over, the oil companies haven't increased the price, but at the same time the Union Govt, may allow them to increase the fuel price by minimum Rs.5-10 per litre at any time.

Price Eiarnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has gone up, from the last week levels, i.e., 20.89 times and settled on Friday at 21.38 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index) last week, has come down from 30.28 and settled at 25.34, as against the previous week levels, i.e., 27.96, this week also the intra volatility may be at an elevated level between 20-29 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the positive zone, out of 2187 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 7436 stocks advanced and 3216 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 2.31 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR also, moved to the positive zone at 2.56 times with 187 advances and 73 declines, this data infers that, the value buy seen at the low levels. on both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, also, the Nifty Bank Index ADR turned to the positive zone at 5 times with 50 advances & 10 declines, it infers that, the value buy seen in Banking stocks too.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a premium 17.30 points from the previous week premium level 13.60 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved down from the last week level 0.98 to 0.86. The more open interest seen 16700 Call & Put option any further movement above 16700-16800 may take the Nifty Inex till 17000-17100, on other hand, any weakness below 16700-16400 then, the Index may test 16200-16100 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: Last week, the Global Indices witnessed a strong sell-off due to the war out broken between Ukraine Vs Russia has jitters the Indian stock market too, the broad based Nifty Index moved down till 15671..45 levels and bounced back till 16757 but closed very well above 16410 levels on a weekly basis.

By considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a negative note near 16565-16525, subject to the Asian indices movement, if the index moves above 16645-16755 then, it may try to re-visit 16845-17000-17050-17085-17170-17220 17340-17490 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index unable to moves above 16645-16755 and moves below 16565-16525 levels; then, it may re-visit 16470-16410-16345-16215-16150-16085-16035-16000-15925-15860-15800-15710-15670 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened at 33278.15, on opening move, it made a weekly low 32155.35 thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high 35374.15 and closed at 34546.25 with a weekly gain 138.45 points, i.e., 0.40%, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above 34685-35000 levels, further move above 35000 then, it may try to re-test 35095-35305-35375-35525-35680-36050-36330-36680 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 36684-36940, further it moves below 36410-36375-36220 then, the Index may try to re-visit 36120-35985-35875-35770-35515-35250-34990-34940-34750 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested in the recent fall near 16000-15800, try to book partial profit near 16700-17000 levels or if, the stocks that you have invested gives a profit 5-9%.

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