For the weekend 07th Jan'22-Friday... Updated on 03.01.22, Monday-8.01 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 16937.75 on Monday, it made a weekly low 16833.20 and moved up, the rest of the week, made a weekly high 17400.80 on Friday and closed the week at 17354.05 on a positive note with a weekly gain 350.30 points, i.e., 2.06%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral closed on the positive side, the Nifty Health lead with a weekly gain 5.52%, followed by the Nifty Pharma gained 5.42%, Nifty Auto gained 2.98%, Nifty IT gained -2.58%, Nifty Financial Services 2.21%, Nifty FMCG gained 1.80%, Nifty Bank 1.79%, Nifty Realty gained 1.44%, Nifty Infra gained 1.42%%, Nifty Metal gained 0.53% and Nifty Energy marginally gained 0.19%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 2.80%, as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index  closed on a positive note with a gain 4.05%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.2217.09 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.4273.55 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

Last year-2021, the FIIs pulled their money from the Indian Equity market, they sold to the tune of Rs.80838.52 crore on the net basis, but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, last year they bought to the tune of Rs.97690.81 crore on the net basis.

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $75.16, it made a weekly open and  high at same points, i.e., $7516 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved down throughout the week, made a weekly low $74.09 on Friday and closed $74.50 with a weekly loss -0.66, i.e., -0.88%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $74.64-74.76, if moves and sustain above $74.76 then, the USD may re-test $74.85-74.93-75.03-75.16-75.30-75.45-75.60 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.34-74.20 then, it may re-visit $74.09-74.02-73.97-73.80 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except PMI datas like Manufacturing and Services data and remaining Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings this week, already all major top companies announced their Q2 numbers, except the few corporates yet to announce their results.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 4118 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 37.60% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 4118 companies were at Rs.238,463.50 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.173,343.40 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 54.60%, last year these 4118 companies made a Net profit Rs.154,493.60 crore. Almost all major Corporates declared their Q2 results, this week other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a northward move, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive jumped from 7k to 19k, the number of active cases now at 122,801 the death toll rose to 481,770, the daily death rate has gone up from 200 to 285 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 145.44 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 84.56 crore and second dose 60.88 crore. The Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron has been spreading all over the world, jitter across the global countries, India's Omicron count rose to 27553 as of Sunday. According to the World Health Organisation, the new variant is less lethal but likely to spread at a higher speed hence, we must wait and watch the further development.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $72.45 to $77.40 per barrel with upward bias and hovering near $76 and USD vs INR also, trading  between $74-75 hence, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for a couple of month.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved up marginally, from the last week levels, i.e., 23.45 times and settled on Friday at 24.11 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index), last week has gone up from the previous week levels, i.e., 16.15 to 16.22. It seems, this week the intra volatility may be in an elevated levels between 13-20 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the positive zone, out of 2163 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 6449 stocks advanced and 4111 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 1.57 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has moved to the positive zone at 2.33 times with 175 advances and 75 declines, this data infers that, some value buying seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, at the same time, the Nifty Bank Index ADR continued to be in the positive zone at 1.52 times with 35 advances & 23 declines, it infers that, some value buying interest seen in Banking & Financial stocks too.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a premium 55.90 points from the previous week premium level 0.05 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved down from the last week level 0.94 to 0.88.

This week Nifty Trend: The coming week, the Nifty may consolidate this week with a downward bias between 17400-17640 to 17150-16800 levels, it seems for time being the Index may face strong hurdle near 17450-17640 and it may take support near 16800-400 levels. By considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note near 17380-17445, subject to the Asian indices movement, if moves above 17445 then, the pull back rally may continue to re-test 17550-17640-17800 levels. On the other hand, if the Index fails to move above 17400-17445-17545 and moves below 17340-17240 then, it may try to re-visit 17150-17050-16960-16890-16830-16790-16700-16555 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 34573.65. on opening move, it made a weekly low 34233 thereafter, it moved up throughout the week, made a weekly high 35596.95 and closed at 35481.70 with a weekly gain 624.65 points, i.e., 1.79%,  this week , the Nifty Bank Index must move above 35600-35800-35875 levels, further move above 35875 then, it may try to re-test 36010-36220-36380-36535-36840-37000-37175-37385-37580 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 35600-35875, further it moves below 35470-35320 then, the Index may try to re-visit 35130-35000-34800-34620-34390-34020-33620 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested in the recent fall near 16600-16400 levels, try to book profit near 17400-17550-17640 levels or the stocks that you have bought gives a profit between 6-9% and wait for the down move to re-invest near 16700-16400 in Nifty100 stocks.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading.