For the weekend 24th Dec'21-Friday... Updated on 19.12.21, Sunday-9.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 17619.10 on Monday, it made a weekly high 17639.50 and moved up throughout the week, made a weekly low 16966.45 on Friday and closed the week at 16985.20 on a negative note with a weekly loss -526.10 points, i.e., -3..00%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, the major sectoral indices closed on a negative note except, Nifty IT, on the negative side, the Nifty Realty lead with a weekly loss -8.37%, followed by the Nifty Financial Services lost -4.87%, Nifty FMCG lost -4.59%, Nifty Bank lost -4.23%, Nifty Infra lost -3.78%, Nifty Auto lost -3.54%, Nifty Metal -3.22%, Nifty Energy lost -2.88%, Nifty Health lost -2.43%, and Nifty Pharma lost -1.75%. On the other hand, the Nifty IT gained 1.89%, Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -4.05%, as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -3.57%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.10452.27 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.6341.14 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $75.72, made a weekly low $75.56 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved up and made a weekly high $76.52, further it moved down till $75.94 on Friday and closed $76.04 with a weekly gain 0.44, i.e., 0.58%.This week, the USD vs INR should move above $76.15-76.25, if moves and sustain above $76.25 then, the USD may re-test $76.32-76.41-76.52-76.35-76.48-76.59-76.67-76.78 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $76.01-75.93 then, it may re-visit $75.85-75.78-75.67-75.56-75.30-75.12 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except remaining Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) corporate earnings this week, already all major top  companies announced their Q2 numbers, except some of the corporates yet to announce their results.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q2(Jul-Sep'21) corporate results, so far 4112 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q2 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 37.60% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 4112 companies were at Rs.238,300.70 crore, as against in the Q1 (Apr-Jun'21) the Net profit seen Rs.173,311.90 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 54.50%, last year these 4112 companies made a Net profit Rs.154,188.80 crore. Almost all major Corporates declared their Q2 results, this week other midcap/small cap companies are expected to declare their Q2 results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a downtrend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive below 9k, the number of active cases now at 83,913 the death toll rose to 477,422, the daily death rate has come down to below 300 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 137.46 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 82.63 crore and second dose 54.83 crore. The Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron has been identified in South Africa, found in several countries, jitter across the global countries, India's Omicron count rose to 126 as of Saturday. According to the World Health Organisation, the new variant is less lethal but likely to spread at a higher speed hence, we must wait and watch the further development.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $69.50 to $73 per barrel and once again moved down to $69 with downward bias and hovering near $70 and USD vs INR also, trading above $76 hence, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for couple of month.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week levels, i.e., 24.15 times and settled on Friday at 23.43 times, this is due to the Nifty Index seeing some selling pressure from 17600 and Q2 good performance of the India Inc. The India Vix (Volatility Index), last week has gone up 16.06 and settled on Friday at 16.34. It seems, this week the intra volatility may be in a high note if moves above 18 then, it may test 20-22 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the negative zone, out of 2153 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 4030 stocks advanced and 6452 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.62 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has seen in a negative zone at 0.55 times with 89 advances and 161 declines, this data infers that, some value buying seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, also the Nifty Bank Index ADR has moved down to the negative zone at 0.20 times with 19 advances & 49 declines, it infers heavy selling seen in Banking & Financial stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled at a premium 38.30 points from the previous week premium level 48.05 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as on Friday at 10921600 i.e.,218432 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 11091250 i.e., 221825 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved up from the last week level 0.91 to 0.94 , the maximum open interest seen in 16900-16800 PUT and 17100-17200 CALL option, it indicates the Nifty may take further direction if moves and closes above 16800 levels to test 16600-16500 levels, further up move possible only above 17100-17200 levels to re-test 17400-176000 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The coming week, the Nifty may trade with a negative bias, this ongoing price and time correction may extend till Dec end or till mid week of Jan'2022, by considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a negative note at 16980-16940-16890, subject to the Asian indices movement, if moves below 16890 then, the sell-off may cotninue to drag the Index till 16780-16700-16550-16360 levels. On the other hand, if the Index take support near 16900-16700 and moves above 16960-17045 then, it may try to re-test 17125-17220-17300-17380-17445-17550-17640 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 37358.20. on opening move, it made a weekly high 37581.05 thereafter, it moved down, made a weekly low 35535.05 and closed 35618.65, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above  35700-35920 levels, further move above 35920-36000 then, it may try to re-test 36200-36310-36430-36550-36800-36980-37150-37350-37550 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 35700-35920, further it moves below 35535 then, the Index may try to re-visit 35330-35160-34980-34820-34710-34650 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who booked profit near 17600 levels, try to re-invest near 16800-16550-16350 levels for short to medium term perspective to gain 5-10% in top Nifty 100 stocks.

Further details please do call us on 98410 48022 or contact thro' WhatsApp: 99624 70636. Please read carefully, the Disclaimer published on the Disclaimer page.

Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading.