For the weekend 30th Jul'21-Friday... Updated on 25.07.21, Sunday-06.03 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 15754.50; on opening move, it made a weekly low at 15578.55 on Tuesday, thereafter it moved up the rest of the days and made a weekly high 15899.80 on Friday and closed the week at 15856.05 on a negative note with a weekly loss -67.35 points i.e., -0.42%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, almost all the sectoral indices closed with a negative bias, except Nifty IT, Nifty Realty & Nifty FMCG. On the negative side, the Nifty Auto was leading with a weekly loss by -2.18%, followed by Nifty Bank lost -2.01%, Nifty Financial Services lost -1.62, Nifty Metal lost -0.70% and Nifty Energy & Nifty Pharma lost marginally by -0.33% &  -0.25%, respectively. On the positive side, the Nifty IT was leading the gain by 1.68%, Nifty Realty gained 1.39% and Nifty FMCG gained 0.84%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss by -0.96% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly loss by -0.38%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.5444.57 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.5051.15 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.63, made a weekly high at $75.10 on Tuesday; thereafter, it moved down and made a weekly low till $74.31 and closed the week with a negative note at $74.48, This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $74.64-74.70 if moves and sustain above $74.70 then, the USD may re-test $74.79-74.86-74.93-75.01-75.10-75.18-75.23-20-75.31 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.50-74.36, then it may re-visit $74.31-74.20-74.10-74.02 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, except the US FED meet which is slated on 28th Jul'21 and on the domestic front, except the India Inc.  Q1(Apr-Jun'21) results and Covid19 developments, we must watch this week. 

Q1-2021-2022 Earnings: The India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results, so far 247 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q1 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit seen a marginal gain and moved on the positive zone by 5.10% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 247 companies were at Rs.50,022.40 crore Vs. Rs.47,602.50 crore (Q4-Jan-Mar'21). Likewise, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 111.40% i.e., Rs.50,022.40 crore, last year these 247 companies made a Net profit Rs.23,666.40 crore, this week the following major corporates will declare their Q1 numbers, they are: Axis Bank, DLF, Kotak Mahindra, L&T, SBI Life Insurance, Tata Motors, Vedanta, Dr Reddy, Indusind Bank, IDBI Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Colgate, LIC Housing, Tech Mahindra, TVS Electronics, Exide Industries, BHEL, IDFC First Bank etc., the results may dictate further move on the Nifty Index for the ensuing weeks.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive below 40k, the number of active cases now at 408,212 the death toll rose to 420,551 the daily death rate also declined below 500 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, if the daily positive numbers are down steadily, may be from August the normalcy may return, subject to the vaccination drive happens in a full swing (as on date, the vaccination status stands at 43.31 crore) and the third wave of the covid19.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $65.20 to $72 per barrel and hovering around $71-72, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to sell above Rs.100-102 mark, since the International Crude price is steady at $71-72, the recent OPEC Meet, the OPEC countries agreed to increase the production from Aug to Dec'21 by a further 2 billion bpd or 0.40 bpd a month, this decision may drag the Crude Oil price further, let us wait and see and USD vs. INR trading near $74.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level, i.e., 28.53 times and settled on Friday at 28.28 times. The lower PE valuation around 28-29 times, is due to the India Inc.,Q4 good numbers.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a negative zone, out of 1662 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 4658 stocks were advanced and 5369 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 0.87 times. At the same time, in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 0.77 times with 108 advances and 140 declines, this data infers that, the profit booking seen in NSE listed stocks and Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty future was settled at a discount by -2.95 points from the last week premium level 12.60 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen in 8315200 when compared with the last week level i.e.,9457250. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has come down up from 0.92 to 0.84, the maximum PUT open interest seen in 16000-16200 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 15900-15800 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may face strong support seen 15900-15800 this week and 1600-16200 may act as strong support.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty Index on Monday, may open with a flat to positive note near 15860-15900, subject to the Asian Indices movement, if the Index moves above 15900 then, the it may test 15935-15962-15995-16025-16070-16095-16145-16220 levels. On the other hand, the Index may take support near 15835-15780 further, if the Index moves below 15780 then, it may re-visit 15740-15700-15655-15615-15580-15545-15490-15450-15432 levels in the near term.  

Special Mention: Nifty Index last week, though it  violated the threshold support levels i.e., 15632 and made a low till 15578.55 but, the Index was able to close at the crucial support level and moved once again till 15900 levels, this week the Index must move above 15900-15962 on the opening move then, it may try to test 16070-16220 levels in the near term. On the other hand, any weakness at 15900-15962 levels, may drag the Index once again till 15780-15635-15500-15432 levels very soon, it seems the Index may trade in a broad range bound move between 16000-15400 levels, for some more trading sessions, further trend may emerge based on the out come of US FED meet and remaining India Inc, Q1 numbers. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested near 15600, may book profit till 15900-16100 and wait for a further dip to re-invest again at 15600-15450  levels with a short term perspective to gain 5-15% , on the Nifty50 stocks.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading