For the weekend 23rd Apr'21-Friday... Updated on 18.04.21, Sunday-6.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on negative note at 14644.65, made a weekly low 14248.70 on Monday, thereafter, the Index moved up throughtout the week, made weekly high till 14697.70, on Friday and closed the week at 14617.85 on negative note with weekly loss -217 points i.e., -1.46%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were traded on negative bias other than the Nifty Pharma. On the negative side, Nifty Realty was leading with the weekly loss by -5.72%, followed by Nifty IT lost -3.81%, Nifty Bank lost -1.45%, Nifty Energy lost -1.31%, Nifty Auto lost -1.15%, Nifty FMCG lost -1.13%, Nifty Metal lost -0.75%, finally Nifty Financial Servises lost marginally by -0.32%. On on the other hand, the  Nifty Pharma gained 1.84%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on negative note with weekly loss by -3.04% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly loss by -3.45%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week conitnued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.1060.03 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.607.48 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI. The FIIs are adopting very cautious approach, the last two trading sessions during last week, they were turned as a net buyer on the net basis, but the overall position they were the net sellers as well as the Foreign Portfolio Investors-FPI's, so far in April they pulled out a net Rs.4615 crore from the Indian Equity market, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR appreciated from the weekly low level i.e.,$74.17, it took support and moved up, made weekly high $75.51 on Tuesday, thereafter a mild sell-off dragged once again till $74.30 and closed at $74.66, as expected and written last week, though it was able to test near our final resistance level i.e., $75.59, but the weakness dragged once again till $74.30, this week, we may expect the USD Vs INR may take support $74.30-74.17, if takes support and moves above $74.68, then it may re-test $74.84-74.99-75.12-75.22-75.36-75.51, further rally above $75.51, then it may test $75.69-75.87-76.00-76.10 levels. If the USD vs INR moves below $74.30-74.17, then it may re-visit $74.08-73.89-73.66-73.51-73.28-73.13-73.04-72.80-72.56 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as, on the domestic front, other than the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results and Covid impact. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results were started to annouce, the IT major TCS, Infosys & Wipro already announced their results, on the Banking sector, the leading private bank HDFC Bank also declared their Q4 resutls last week, so far, 17 out of 4248 companies declared their Q4 results, on QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop by -7.28% when compares with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 17 companies were Rs.16,224.89 crore vs. Rs.17,497.97 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive numbers at  9.74%, last year these 17 companies made a Net profit Rs.14,784.26.

Covid19: The unexpected and super spreader Covid-19 second wave created a panic, especially in India, the number of Covid positive cases have been increasing day-by-day, it reached the unprecdented level of 2.61 lakhs positive cases on Saturday, which causes major concern, several states and Union territories have imposed restrictions, including Maharashtra imposed 144 Curfew and others states declared week-end curfew night curfew and tightened existing restrictions in major cities of several states are trying hard to control this epidemic, the death rates are moves faster, this may impact the supply chain and our Indian economy.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved up from $59 to 63 per barrel, though the domestic Petrol & Disel prices, not raised due to the state election, it may be raised after the vote counting i.e., 02nd May, subject to  the International Crude price and USD rates.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level i.e., 33.53 times and settled on Friday at 32.84 times, if the India Inc., Q4 results are not doing good, then the PE may go up, then the Nifty Index may see furtther price correction. 

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in negative zone, last week out of 2025 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 3285 stocks were advanced and 4236 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 0.91 times in the overall Nifty stocks, especially in Nifty 50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 1 time with 124 advances and 124 declines. This datas infers that no major up move beyond 14785-15000 levels is expected this week. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures premium was settled at 27.85 points from the last week level 54.55 poitnts, the Nifty futures OI seen at 11728360, when compares with the last week level i.e., 11308950. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) seen at 0.88, the  maximum CALL and PUT open interest was seen at 14600, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support 14600 for time being and 14800-15000 may see strong resistance. Any weakness below 14600, then 14300-14000 are possible down side support level.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 19th Apr'21, on flat to negative note, subject to the Asian market move, near 14610-14560 if open and sustain below 14560 then, the Index may try to re-visit 14520-14475-14420-14350-14300-14265-14220-14160-14070-13965 levels. On the other hand, the immediate resistance seen at 14655-14700 levels, any further up move above 14700 then, the Index may re-test 14750-14820-14870-14920-14985-15055-15120-15185 levels in the near term.

Special Mention: It seems, the Nifty Index may trade with broad range consolidation between 14985-14250, either of these ranges must be broken this week, to move either side, the strong support lies at 14250 at the same time the strong resistance seen at 14985, if the Nifty Index must close above 14985 or below 14250, for three consecutive trading sessions with weekly close, then it may pave the way to test 14000-13600 levels on the lower side or above 14985, may lift the Index till 15200-15330-15430 levels on the higher side.

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who re-invested near 14400-14300 levels during the recent down trend, start book profit near 14800-15000 levels or the stocks, you have invested gives profit 5-10 return and wait to adopt buy on dips strategy at 14250-14000 levels.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading