For the weekend  12th Mar'21-Friday... Updated on 08.03.21, Monday-6.30 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened on positive note at 14702.50, our expected opening band i.e., 14560-14635, made low at 14638.55 on Monday, thereafter, the Index moved up till 15273.15, further global sell-off dragged the Index till 14862.10 on Friday and closed the week at 14938.10 on positive note with weekly gain by 408.95 points i.e., 2.81%. 

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 08th Mar'21, on positive note, subject to the Asian market move, near 14995-15070, if open and sustain above 15070 then, the Index may try to re-test 15150-15220-15275-15325-15385-15430-15500-15586 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 14920-14865-14800 levels, any further down move below 14800 then, the Index may re-visit 14775-14715-14660-14605-14565-14520-14470-14410-14300-14250 levels.

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global, as well as on the domestic front, other then the India's domestic economic data's such as IIP, Inflation and India Inc. remaining corporate companies quarterly results for the Q3 (Oct-Dec'20 quarter), as of 06th Mar'21, 3937 companies announced their Q3 numbers, the Q-o-Q basis net profit has lost the positive momentum and just maintaining marginal gain about 0.50%, when compares with the last quarter. On Y-o-Y basis, it is sustaining the growth at 65.20%, compares with the same period last year Dec'19, we should wait and watch the remaining corporate companies results, in the ensuing days. The rise in Crude Oil price (now trading at $67 per barrel) may give negative impact on the Indian Economy, the Inflation rates are moving northwards, across all the sectors, the prices are soaring up, it is already evident in the India Inc. Q3 results, when compares with the Sep'20 Quarter the sales was Rs.15,50,208.70 Crore, whereas during Dec'20 quarter the Sales has moved up by 16.60% i.e., Rs.18,06,934.10 Crore, but the Net profit not moved up correspondingly, it is maintaing at the same level with a marginal increase by only 0.50%, it infers that the expenditure had eaten away the revenue made through the excess sales. if the Crude oil price is sustain at $66-70 per barrel, will impact more on the India Inc, the same will be reflected in the final Quarter i.e., Q4 (utpo Mar'21) and also, global weakness and rising the US bond rates may give the negative Funds flow by the FIIs, these are the trend deciders for the market direction in the near term, price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved up  from the last week level i.e., 39.65 times and settled on Friday at 40.76 times. 

Special Mention: Last week, the Nifty Index on opening move made 14638 and took support, the pull back rally as expected moved till 15273, made weekly high 15273.15, but the global weakness once again dragged down the Index till 14862 and closed well above 14770. This week is crucial one for the Nifty index, either it must break the recent all time high i.e.,15431.75 or to move below the recent low point i.e., 14467.75, till then it may consolidate between these two levels, further direction may be decided by breaking these ranges, if the Nifty Index breaks below 14467.75, then it may re-visit 14300-14165-14000 levels in the near term, on the other hand, if the Nifty Index moves above 15270-15431, then it may test 15530-15700 levels in the near term.

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were traded with positive bias and ended with positive note. The Nifty IT was leading with the weekly gain 3.82%, followed by Nifty Auto gaiend 3.49%, Nifty FMCG gained 2.83%, Nifty Energy gained 2.42%, Nifty Realty gained 2.26%, Nifty Pharma gained 2.22%, Nifty Fianancial Servcies gained 1.62%, finally the Nifty Bank and Nifty Metal gained 1.22%. On the other hand, Nifty Midcap Index closed on positive note with weekly gain by 3.48% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 3.95%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week continued as a net buyer in the Equity segment, they bought to the tune of Rs.2029.45 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, turned as a net seller, they sold to the tune of Rs.2635.39 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, whereas the FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investors) last week, pulled out from the Indian Equity market to the tune of Rs. 885 Crore. We must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds flow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR depreciated from the weekly high level i.e.,$73.78 and moved down till $72.60 and closed on Friday at $73.15, as expected and written last week, it was not able to move above $74.17-74.37, the brief weakness dragged once again till $72.60. This week, if the USD vs INR moves down below $72.60-72.47 then, it may try to re-visit $72.48-72.42-72.26-72.13-72.00. On the other hand if it is able to move up above $73.26-73.31 on the upper side then, it may re-test $73.43-73.52-73.65-73.78-73.94-74.10-74.17 levels in the near term. 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who started to invest near 14500 levels, hold the positions and further investment can be made near 14300-14000 levels, if the Nifty trades near these levels for the medium term perspective to gain 5-15% reuturn in Nifty 50 stocks and if the Nifty moves near 15300-15430 levels then book profit and wait for the correction to re-invest at 14600-14300 levels in the Nifty index.

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