For the weekend 01st Apr'21-Thursday... Updated on  29.03.21, Monday-8.01 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened on positive note at 14736.50, our expected opening band i.e., 14740-14700, made weekly high 14878.60 on Tuesday, thereafter, the Index moved down throughout the week and made a day low till 14264.40, further the mild pull back rally lifted the Index till 14572.90 on Friday and closed the week at 14507.30 on a negative note with weekly loss by -236.70 points i.e., -1.61%. 

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 30th Mar'21, on positive note, subject to the Asian market move, near 14580-14640, if open and sustain above 14640 then, the Index may try to re-test 14700-14750-14805-14878-14898-14950-15020-15045-15090 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 14500-14410 levels, any further down move below 14410 then, the Index may re-visit 14350-14305- 14265-14220-14150-14080-13966-13900-13815 levels.

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, as well as on the domestic front and India Inc. remaining corporate companies quarterly results for the Q3 (Oct-Dec'20 quarter), as of 29th Mar'21, 3960 companies announced their Q3 numbers, the Q-o-Q basis net profit has lost the positive momentum and moved to the negative territory with marginal loss about -0.20%, when compares with the last quarter. On Y-o-Y basis, it is sustaining the positive growth at 64%, compares with the same period last year Dec'19, we should wait and watch the Q4 India Inc. results, which may kick start from first week of Apr'21. The recent surges in the Covid19 cases across the global countries, especially in India, the number of cases are rising day-by-day, which causes major concern about the re-impose of lock down in many states such as Maharashtra, Kerala & Tamilnadu, in case the lock down is imposed, it may impact the economy and Crude Oil prices hovering around $60-62 per barrel also causes concern over the Inflation rates, it may go up coming month. Across all the sectors, the prices are soaring up, it is already evident in the India Inc. Q3 results, when compares with the Sep'20 Quarter, the sales was Rs.15,50,311.20 Crore, whereas during Dec'20 quarter the Sales has moved up by 16.60% i.e., Rs.18,07,447 crore, but the Net profit not moved up correspondingly, it has moved down with a marginal decrease by -0.20%, it infers that the expenditure had eaten away the revenue made through the excess sales. if the Crude oil price is sustain at $60-65 per barrel, the impact will be more on the India Inc, the same will be reflected in the final Quarter i.e., Q4 (upto Mar'21). The FPI/FIIs turned as a net seller in the Inidan Equity market, since  on the net basis they sold in the Indian Eqyity market, which was dragged the Index last week, as long as they sell, the price correction may be deeper till 14000-13600 levels, the price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved down from the last week level i.e., 40.16 times and settled on Friday at 39.51 times. 

Special Mention: Last week, the Nifty Index as written and expected it was re-visited the recent bottom made near 14350 on 19th Mar'21, broken that level and tested till 14264, but closed well above 14350, this week the Nifty Index must move and  trade above 14700-14745, if it is closes above these levels for three consecutive trading sessions then, it may try to re-test 14875-14950-15050, further upmove above 15050, then only further levels are possibele till 15110-15220-15336 levels. On the other hand if the Index unable to move above 14745-14875 , then the weakness may drag the Index till 14450-14260, if the Index move below 14260 then, it may re-visit 14150-14050-13970-13775-13600 levels in the near term.

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were traded with negative bias except Nifty Pharma & Nifty  Metal. The Nifty Auto was leading with the weekly loss by -4.07%, followed by Nifty Energy lost -4.04, Nifty Bank lost -2.47%, Nifty Financial Services lost -1.68%, Nifty IT lost -0.69%, Nifty FMCG lost -0.62% and finally Nifty Realty marginally lost -0.14%. At the same time the Nifty Pharma was gained 1.85% & Nifty Metal gained by 0.59%.  On the other hand, Nifty Midcap Index closed on negative note with weekly loss by -0.85% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly loss by -2.73%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week turned as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.6280.85 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, turned as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.4596.64 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI. We must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR appreciated from the weekly low level i.e.,$72.28 and moved up till $73.13, thereafter it moved down again till $72.37 and closed on Friday at $72.44, as expected and written last week, it was not able to move down below $72.26, though the brief up move took the USD till $73.13, but unable to sustain at $73, the weakness dragged once again, now the USD Vs INR this week, must take support at $72.26, if it is fails to take support near $72.26, then it may visit $71.76-70.50 above weakness dragged once again till $72.30. This week, if the USD vs INR moves down below $72.26 then, it may try to re-visit $72.05-71.76-71.60-71.47 levels. On the other hand if it is able to move up above $72.60 on the upper side then, it may re-test $72.70-72.81-72.88-72.95-73.03-73.13-73.36 levels in the near term. 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who re-invested near 14400-14300 levels during the recent down trend, start book profit partially near 14700-14900-15050 levels, to gain 5-10% reuturn if the stocks you invested gives this profit and hold rest and adopt buy on dips strategy at 14250-14050-13900 levels.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading