For the weekend 11th Feb'22-Friday... Updated on 06.02.22, Sunday-07.02 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 17301.15 on Monday, it made a weekly low 17264.15 on the opening day thereafter, it moved up. made a weekly high 17794.60 further the Index came down till 17462.55 and closed the week at 17516.30 on a positive note with a weekly gain 414.35 points, i.e., 2.42%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices closed on the positive side, the Nifty Metal lead with a weekly gain by 6.65%, followed by the Nifty health gained 4.80%, Nifty Pharma gained 4.60%, Nifty FMCG gained 3.65%, Nifty IT gained 3.63%, Nifty Bank gained 2.56%, Nifty Financial Services gained 2.25%, Nifty Realty gained 1.68%, Nifty Infra gained 1.18%, finally Nifty Auto marginally gained by 0.58%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 2.14%, as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also closed on a positive note with a weekly loss 1.87%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.7695.27 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.5923.70 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $75.00, it made a weekly high $75.05 on Monday; thereafter, it moved down, made a weekly low $74.43 on Tuesday and closed on a negative note $74.64 with a weekly loss -0.36 points i.e., -0.48%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $74.70-74.75 if moves and sustain above $74.75 then, the USD may re-test $74.81-74.87-74.92-74.98-75.05-75.15-75.24-75.35 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.58-74.74.50 then, it may re-visit $74.43-74.37-74.32-74.25-74.12-74.03 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except the RBI MPC meet which is slated on 09th Feb-Wednesday & IIP data is expected on 11th Feb-Friday and India Inc. Q3 Oct-Dec'21) remaining corporate earnings.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q3(Oct-Dec'21) corporate results, so far 1185 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q3 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 5.30% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 1185 companies were at Rs.173,169.10 crore, as against in the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) the Net profit seen Rs.164,488.10 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 28.60%, last year these 1185 companies made a Net profit Rs.134,699.30 crore, though the net sales/income moved by to 25.60% when compared with last year in the same quarter but, QoQ basis the net sales/income gone up by 5.70%. The Major Corporates already declared their Q3 results, this week we can expect the results from IRCTC, Jindal Steel, ACC, Aurobindo Pharma, Hindalco Cummins, M&M, IDFC, Voltas and other midcap and small cap companies also will declare their results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 spread started to move southward direction, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive cases has come down below 1.50 lakhs, the number of active cases now at 1225,011, the death toll rose to 501,979, the daily death rate maintaining above 800 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 169.46 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 89.98 crore, second dose 72.52 crore and between 15-18 years, they got the vaccination around 5.49 crore. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $86-93 per barrel and hovering above $87 and USD vs INR also, trading near $74-75, though the International Crude price moved from $67 to $93 per barrel, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for a couple of months, due to ensuing state election in UP, Punjab.Uttrakhand, Manipur and Goa, all these elections may be held during Feb & Mar'22.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has gone up, from the last week levels, i.e., 23.10 times and settled on Friday at 23.56 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index) last week, has come down from the previous week levels, i.e., 20.70 to 18.90, this week too, the intra volatility may be at a higher levels between 15-22 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the positive zone, out of 2193 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 5770 stocks advanced and 4899 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 1.18 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR also, moved to the positive zone at 1.32 times with 141 advances and 107 declines, this data infers that, some value buy seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, also, the Nifty Bank Index ADR continued to be in the positive zone at 1.22 times with 33 advances & 27 declines, it infers that, the Nifty Bank also seen some value buying in Banking stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a premium 13.35 points from the previous week premium level 23.70 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved up from the last week level 0.89 to 1.02. The more open interest seen 17300 PUT option and 17500 Call Option, any further move is possible only by moving above 17500-17600 to test 17800-18000 or if moves below 17300 then, the Index may re-test 17200-17100 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty Index took support from our threshold levels 16835 and pull back rally took the index near 18k and closed near 17500 levels, by considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a flat to negative note near 17500-17450, subject to the Asian indices movement, if the index moves below 17450-17430-17410 then it may try to re-visit 17375-17310-17245-17205-17180-17135-17075-17060-17705-16950 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index moves above 17550-17615-17660 then, it may re-test 17700-17725-17755-17795-17840-17900-17950-18025-18100-18130 levels in the near term, the Nifty Index may take further direction based on the out come of RBI MPC meet, we can expect a status quo in the repo and reverse repo rate. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 38091.80, on opening move, it made a weekly low 37647.85 thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high 39424.85 and closed at 38789.35 with a weekly gain 1099.95 points, i.e., 2.92%, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above 38855-39070-39190 levels, further move above 39190 then, it may try to re-test 39270-39425-39470-39540-38570-39670-39800-39850 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 39190-39270, further it moves below 38645-38560 then, the Index may try to re-visit 38400-38260-38080-37900-37720-37540-37320-37095 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested near 17150-16850 levels, start book profit 17500-17800-18000 or if the stocks give profit between 9-15% then book partially.

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