For the weekend 21st Jan'22-Friday... Updated on 16.01.22, Sunday-7.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 17913.30 on Monday, it made a weekly low 17879.15 and moved up, the rest of the week, made a weekly high 18286.95 on Friday and closed the week at 18255.75 on a positive note with a weekly gain 443.05 points, i.e., 2.49%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices closed on the positive side, except Nifty FMCG index, on the positive side the Nifty Energy lead with a weekly gain 5.47%, followed by the Nifty Realty gained 4.90%, Nifty Infra gained 3.66%, Nifty Metal gained 3.28%, Nifty Auto gained 3.12%, Nifty Financial Services gained 1.98%, Nifty IT gained 1.80%, Nifty Bank gained 1.67% and Nifty Pharma & Nifty Healthcare gained 0.77%, 0.67%, respectively. On the other side, Nifty FMCG lost by -0.13%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 2.82%, as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index  closed on a positive note with a gain 3.62%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, turned as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.4002.94 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.3629.03 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.16, it made a weekly high $74.51 on Monday; thereafter, it moved down, made a weekly low $73.81 on Tuesday and closed on a flat note $74.16 with no change in a  weekly close 0.00, i.e., 0.00%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $74.24-74.30, if moves and sustain above $74.30 then, the USD may re-test $74.43-74.60-74.70-74.82-74.95 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.11-74.05 then, it may re-visit $73.95-73.88-73.81-73.64-73.55 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except India Inc. Q3 Oct-Dec'21) corporate earnings.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q3(Oct-Dec'21) corporate results, so far 65 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q3 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 2.50% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 65 companies were at Rs.19,869.90 crore, as against in the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) the Net profit seen Rs.19,383.50 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 9.60%, last year these 65 companies made a Net profit Rs.18,136 crore. Major Corporates started to declare their Q3 results, this week we can expect the results from ICICI Pru, Bajaj Finance, Ultratech, Bajaj Auto, ICICI Lombard, LIC Hsg, Bajaj Holdings, Tata Communication, Bajaj Finserv, HUL, JSW Steel, L&T Finance, ICICI Life, HDFC Life and Yes Bank, etc.

Covid19: The Covid-19 has continuously been witnessed a northward move, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive cases hovering around 115k, the number of active cases now at 155,0377 the death toll rose to 486,066, the daily death rate has been maintaining above 300 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 156.76 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 87.36 crore, second dose 65.58 crore and between 15-18 years, they got the vaccination around 3.38 crore. The Covid-19 highly infectious new variant Omicron has been spreading all over the world, jitter across the global countries, India's Omicron count is around 7743 as of Sunday. According to the World Health Organisation, the new variant is less lethal but likely to spread at a higher speed hence, we must wait and watch the further development.

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $77.85 to $84.30 per barrel with upward bias and hovering above $84 and USD vs INR also, trading near $74 hence, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for a couple of month, if the Crude price moves above $85 the, the domestic price also may move up further.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved up, from the last week levels, i.e., 24.75 times and settled on Friday at 25.30 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index) last week, has come down from the previous week levels, i.e., 17.60 to 16.56. It seems, this week the intra volatility may be at a lower levels between 15-18 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week turned to the positive zone, out of 2191 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 6514 stocks advanced and 4177 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 1.56 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR has moved to the positive zone at 1.53 times with 151 advances and 99 declines, this data infers that, some value buying seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, at the same time, the Nifty Bank Index ADR continued to be in the positive zone at 1.81 times with 38 advances & 21 declines, it infers that, more value buying interest seen in Banking & Financial stocks too.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a premium 39.25 points from the previous week premium level 41.60 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved up marginally from the last week level 0.87 to 0.88. The more open interest seen 18300-18200 PUT option and 18300-18400 Call Option, any further move is possible only by moving above 18400 to test 18600 or if moves below 18200 then, the Index may re-test 18100-18000 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: By considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a flat to positive note near 18250-18285, subject to the Asian indices movement, if the index moves above 18285 then it may try to test 18350-18475-18540-18600 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index fails to move above 18330-18350 and moves below 18200-18120 then, it may try to re-visit 17960-17900-17805-17730-17655 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 37930.55, on opening move, it made a weekly high 38851.45 thereafter, it moved down throughout the week, made a weekly low 38007.45 and closed at 38370.40 with a weekly gain 630.80 points, i.e., 1.67%, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above 38450-38500-38565 levels, further move above 38565 then, it may try to re-test 38715-38850-38970-39080-39170-39275-39370-39540. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 38200-38010, further it moves below 37860-37500 then, the Index may try to re-visit 37290-37090-36815-36535-36270 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested in the recent fall near 16600-16400 levels, try to book full profit near 18250-18350-18475 levels or the stocks that you have bought gives a profit between 15-20% and wait for the down move to re-invest near 16700-16400 in Nifty100 stocks.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading.