For the weekend 09th Apr'21-Friday... Updated on  05.04.21, Monday-6.15 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened on positive note at 14628.50, our expected opening band i.e., 14580-14640, made a weekly low 14617.60 on Tuesday, thereafter, the Index moved up on the same day till 14876.30, further the mild weakness dragged the index till 14670, once again on Thursday it moved up, made a weekly high at 14883.20 and closed the week at 14867.35 on a positive note with weekly gain 360.05 points i.e.,2.48%. 

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 05th Apr'21, on positive note, subject to the Asian market move, near 14900-14955, if open and sustain above 14955 then, the Index may try to re-test 15020-15051-15105-15160-15215-15270-15336-15385-15431 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 14876-14810 levels, any further down move below 14810 then, the Index may re-visit 14750-14700-14670-14617-14575-14505-14465-14350-14265-14165-14070 levels.

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, as well as on the domestic front except the RBI Policy meet is scheduled on 07th April-Wednesday, can expect a status quo in Repo rate and India Inc. remaining corporate companies quarterly results for the Q3 (Oct-Dec'20 quarter), as of 02nd Aor'21, 3967 companies announced their Q3 numbers, the Q-o-Q basis net profit has lost the positive momentum, this quarter seen a flat performance about 0.00%, when compares with the last quarter. On Y-o-Y basis, it is sustaining the positive growth at 63.90%, compares with the same period last year Dec'19, we should wait and watch the Q4 India Inc. results, which may kick starts from second week of Apr'21 i,e.,  the IT major Infosys and Wipro are declaring their Q4 results on 14th Apr & 15th Apr'21, respectively. The second wave of Covid-19 surges in the across the global countries, especially in India, the number of Covid positive cases are rising day-by-day, nearly touching 1 lac mark, which causes major concern, several states and Union territories have imposed restrictions, including partial lockdown and night curfew, State governments, including those in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajsasthan and Gujarat, have tightened existing restrictions in major cities of several states, this may impact the economy and Crude Oil prices hovering near $61-62 per barrel also causes concern over the Inflation rates, it may go up coming month. Across all the sectors, the prices are soaring up, it is already evident in the India Inc. Q3 results, when compares with the Sep'20 Quarter, the sales was Rs.15,50,208.70 Crore, whereas during Dec'20 quarter the Sales has moved up by 16.60% i.e., Rs.18,07,447 crore, but the Net profit not moved up correspondingly, it has moved down with a flat note by 0.00%, it infers that the expenditure had eaten away the revenue made through the excess sales. if the Crude oil price is sustain at $60-65 per barrel, the impact will be more on the India Inc, the same will be reflected in the final Quarter i.e., Q4 (upto Mar'21). The price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved up from the last week level i.e., 39.51 times and settled on Thursday at 39.60 times. 

Special Mention: Last week, the Nifty Index was trading in rangebound move between 14600-14883, and closed well above 14750 levels, this week if, the Nifty Index  moves and sustains above 14875, then it may re-test 15050-15220-15335-15431 levels in the near term, else the Index fails to move above 15050-15336 then the weakness may drag the Index once again to re-visit 14600-14400-14265, further down move below 14265, then it may re-visit 14070-13600 levels in the near term.

It seems, till this month-end or first week of May'21, the Index may trade with broad range-cum-high level consolidation between 15430-14265, either of these ranges must be broken this month, mostly it  depends on the outcome of India Inc. Q4 (Jan-Mar'21) results, the five  states assembly election results outcome, since these results are the acid test for the present central ruling party BJP, also the widespread surges in Covid19 positive numbers are also may play major role in the Index movement, we may expect major down fall i.e., deeper price correction in the Nifty Index till 12430-12000 levels either this month or before May/ Jun'2021, the given factors listed above, if disappoints the stock market, then we may witness these levels, this view may be negated only if, the Index moves and closes above 15432 for three consecutive trading sessions and coupled with weekly close, then the northward journey may continue to test 15800 levels.

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were traded and closed with positive bias. The Nifty Metal was leading with the weekly gain by 8.66%, followed by Nifty Pharma gained 4.16%, Nifty FMCG gained 3.12%, Nifty Auto gained 2.57%, Nifty IT gained 2.35%, Nifty Realty gained 2.19%, Nifty Energy gained 1.64%, Nifty Bank gained 1.62%, finally Nifty Financail Services gained by 1.22%.  On the other hand, Nifty Midcap Index closed on positive note with weekly gain by 3.89% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 3.51%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week conitnued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.767.03 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.3965.69 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI. We must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR appreciated from the weekly low level i.e.,$72.44, thereafter it moved up, made weekly high $73.66 and closed on Thursday at $73.43, as expected and written last week, it was able to take support near $72.26 and not broken this levels and moved up till $73.43, though the brief down move took the USD till $73.08  but able to close at $73.43. This week, if the USD vs INR take support near $ 73.30-73.12, then it may re-test $73.52-73.66-73.74-73.80-73.99-74.17 levels. On the other hand if it is breaks $72.90 on the lower side then, it may re-visit $72.81-72.72-72-72.58-7244-72.28 levels in the near term. 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who re-invested near 14400-14300 levels during the recent down trend, start book profit near 14900-15050-15220 levels, to gain 10-15% reuturn if the stocks you invested gives this profit and hold rest and adopt buy on dips strategy at 14400-14000 levels.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading