For the weekend 26th Feb'21-Friday... Updated on 21.02.21, Sunday-8.30 pm
Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and written last week, opened on positive note at 15270.30, our expected opening band i.e., 15195-15220, made weekly high at 15431.75 on Tuesday, thereafter, the Index moved down throughout the week till 14898.20 and closed the week at 14981.75 on negative note with weekly loss by -137.20 points i.e., -0.91%.
This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 22nd Feb'21, on positive note, subject to the Asian market move, near 14975-15025, if open and sustain above 15025 then, the Index may try to test 15070-15145-15175-15225-15275-15320-15370-15430-15470 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 14900-14865-14830 levels, any further down move below 14830 then, the Index may re-visit 14770-14730-14620-14575-14515-14460-14420 levels.
Key Events: No major key events are expected this week, on the global front, as well as on the domestic front, other then the Indian GDP for Q3 (Oct-Dec'20) and India Inc. remaining corporate companies quarterly results for the Q3 (Oct-Dec'20 quarter), as of 20th Feb, 3630 companies announced their Q3 numbers, the Q-o-Q basis net profit has lost the positive momentum and marginally gained 0.50%, when compares with the last quarter. On Y-o-Y basis, it is sustaining the growth at 66.20%, compares with the same period last year Dec'19, we should wait and watch the remaining corporate companies results, in the ensuing days. The Q3 numbers of the remaining corporates and FIIs Funds flow are the trend deciders for the market direction in the near term, price valuation i.e,, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the recent peak level i.e., 42 times and settled on Friday at 40.88.
Special Mention: Last week, the Nifty Index once again moved up and made an another record all time high at 15431.75, the global market weakness cum sell-off dragged the Index till 14898 and closed well below 15000-15070, though the Nifty Index corrected with sell-off but the FIIs continued their buying spree last week also, if the FIIs turn to sell then the Nifty Index may test 14750-14500-14300 this week itself. On the other hand if, the Nifty Index if able to moves and sustain above 15070-15260 and closes above 15260 for three consecutive trading sessions with weekly close then it may try to re-test 15430-15530-15750 levels in the near term.
Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral Indices were traded with negative note except Nifty Energy & Nifty Metal. The Nifty Pharma was leading with the weekly loss -3.43%, followed by Nifty Auto lost -3.41%, Nifty IT lost -2.26, Nifty FMCG lost -1.74%, Nifty Financial Services lost -1.58%, Nifty Bank marginally lost -0.74%, also Nifty Realty too lost marginally by -0.73,% and Nifty Energy and Nifty Metal gained 5.23% & 1.89%, respectively. On the other hand, Nifty Midcap Index closed on positive note with weekly gain by 0.89% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 0.62%.
Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week continued as a net buyer in the Equity segment, they bouhgt all the days last week, to the tune of Rs.4408.26 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net seller, they sold all the days last week, to the tune of Rs.-6282.75 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI. We must watch the FIIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds flow or not.
USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR appreciated from the weekly low level i.e.,$72.47 and moved up till $73.06, but once again moved down, made a weekly low at $72.42 and closed on Friday at $72.51, this week is a crucial one for USD Vs INR, if it is moves below $72.41-72.23 then, it may move down till $72.10-71.93-71.76, on the other hand if it moves above $72.41-72.58 on the upper side then, it may re-test $72.71-72.85-73.00-73.06-73.20-73.38-73.57 levels in the near term.
Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader, those who booked near 15500 levels, start invest partially from 14800-14500 levels for the medium term perspective to gain 5-15% reuturn in Nifty 50 stocks.
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