For the weekend  04th Sep'20-Friday... Updated on 30.08.20, Sunday : 1.50 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and wriiten last week, opened with positive note near our resistance band i.e, 11420-11440, made a open at 11412 and took support near 11410 thereafter, the Index moved up every day and peaked 11686.05 on Friday and closed the week at 11647.60 with a gain 276 points i.e.,2.43%. As written in the last week outlook, the Index tested and moved beyond our resistance level 11640, also closed well below 11640 and 11440-11420, acted as a good support last week. 

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 31st Aug'20, on a flat to positiive note, subject to the Asian market move, to test 11660-11710, if able to open, surpass and sustain above 11710 then, the immediate resistance seen at 11750-11810-11870-11910 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 11605-11570-11540 any weakness below 11540 then, the Index may re-test 11460-11370-11290-11185 levels.

Key Events: This week major key events are expected in the domestic front, the August month-end factor and  the GDP data for the Q1 i.e., Apr-Jun'20, which is expected to release on 31st Aug'20, other than that no other major key events are expected in the global front. The India Inc., Q1-June'20 remaining results are also plays an important role in the Nifty index further movement, as of 29th Aug'20, around 1890 out of 4268 companies already, announced their results, the Net profit sharply rebounds by +22.10% on Quarter on Quarter-QoQ basis and maintain its subdued performance by -56.70% on Year on Year-YoY basis, the QoQ performance has moved  from the last week level i.e., -1.90% to +22.10, shows that the India Inc., net profit improved strongly on QoQ, which helped to test the postiive territory, we must wait and watch remaining corporates around 300 or more are expected to announce their results this week. Hence, I conclude at this juncture, the Nifty index may test 11750-11870 by this week end provided the volume is moves up and FIIs inflow continues this week, any major disappointment in the GDP data and other India Inc., results then, the Nifty Index may consolidate between in broader range between 11750-11110 with downward bias this week, the current Price Earnings-PE premium valuation is already peaked with the all time high 32.92 times as on 28th Aug'20, which creates an unrest among the believer of Fundamentals and value based investors. 

Special Mention: It looks the Nifty index coming week may try to continue the upward momentum to test 11735-11870-11910, the weekly trading range narrows to 200-250 points, whenever it moves higher, convincing volume is not happening, it shows the retail trader's lack of participation, moving higher only on a gap up and sudden intra spike movement about 40-60 points to lift the Nifty Index to the higher levels, which shows some weakness sign with fatigue movement and also the Nifty Futures OI-Open Interest moved up when compared to the levels, since March'20. The under performed sectors such as Banking, Realty and Metal stocks largely helped the Nifty index to test and tradng at the higher levels this month, on MTD (Month to Date- till 28th Aug) the Nifty Metal Sector largely gained over 17.37%, followed by Nifty Realty 15.97%, Nifty Bank Index 13.33% and Nifty Auto index also gained over 11.43%.  

Sector wise performance: Last week, Nifty Bank Index ganied (+9.97), Nifty Realty (+4.04%), Nifty Auto gained (+2.23%), Nifty IT (+0.31%) & Nifty Pharma (+0.07%) marginally gained, Nifty Bank and Realty sectors helped the Nifty Index to test 11686.05 and hold the same at the higher levels further the Nifty FMCG (-1.11%), Nifty Metal (-0.71%) & Nifty Energy (-0.13%) sectors last the momentum and closed on a negative note.

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week bought to the tune of Rs.5450.01 crores on the net basis whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, sold every day to the tune of Rs.3056.06 crores on the net basis in the equity segment. The FIIs pumped the money in to the Indian Equity market almost every day this month except on 05th Aug'20 (they marginally sold Rs.60.18 Crs on net basis) as on 28th Aug'20, they bought to the tune of Rs. 19145.32 crs on a net basis, whereas the DIIs sold to the tune of Rs.11727.60 Crs. It looks the FIIs may pump more money even in Sep'20, unless any major global issues occur, till then they may continue the inflow in to the Indian equtiy market, which will be evident by the USD Vs INR movement last week, all of a sudden the INR appreciated till $73.11 on Friday, further appreciation is expected till $72.40 to $71 in the near term.

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader may exercise due caution, especially this week too, at the higher levels i.e 11660-11750--11870 if the Nify Index unable to moves and close above 11750-11870 then, to book profit in the cash segment and invest again in the equity segment especially in the Nifty 50 stocks, when the Nifty Index comes near 11360-11180 levels, for a short term gain around 10-15%. This is a traders market, to trade for short term gains, rather to wait for long term basis.

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