For the weekend 14th Oct'21-Thursday... Updated on 10.10.21, Sunday-9.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note i.e., 17615.55; on Monday, it made a weekly low 17581.35 thereafter, the up move took the index throughout the week, made a day high till 17941.85 on Friday and closed the week at 17895.20 on a positive note with a weekly gain 363.15 points i.e., 2.07%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, most of the major sectoral indices were closed with a positive note, except Nifty Health, Nifty FMCG & Nifty Pharma, on the positive side, the Nifty IT index leading with a weekly gain 4.66%, followed by the Nifty Auto gained 4.55%, Nifty Energy gained 3.92%, Nifty Realty gained 2.93%, Nifty Infra gained 1.99%, Nifty Bank gained 1.48% and  Nifty Metal and Nifty Financial Services gained marginally 0.76% & 0.75%, respectively. On the other hand, Nifty Health leading to a weekly loss -3.72%, followed by Nifty FMCG lost -1.00% and Nifty Pharma lost -0.50%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 3.42%; as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a positive note  with a weekly gain 3.68%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.3685.65 crore on the net basis; at the same time, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.3458.05 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.15, made a weekly low $74.12 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved up throughout the week, made a weekly high $75.29 on Friday and closed the week with a positive note at $75.09. This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $75.10-75.15, if moves and sustain above $75.15 then, the USD may re-test $75.22-75.28-75.39-75.54-75.65-75.81 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.94-74.75 then, it may re-visit $74.68-74.50-74.46-74.35-74.30-74.20-74.07-73.87 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as, on the domestic front except the macro data such as IIP, Annual inflation and WPI Inflation are expected this week. Further, the India Inc. Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) major IT Sector results are also starts this week, already on 08th Oct-Friday, the IT major TCS announced their Q2 numbers,  the net profit jumped 14.10% on YoY basis.

Q1-2021-2022 Earnings: The India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results, so far 4028 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q1 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop and continued in the negative zone by -13.70% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 4028 companies were at Rs.172,8881.70 crore, as against in the Q4 (Jan-Mar'21) the Net profit seen Rs.200,332 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 419.20%, last year these 4028 companies made a Net profit Rs.33,296 crore. 

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed a flat trend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive below 20k, the number of active cases now at 230,971 the death toll rose to 450,589 the daily death rate has moved down around 200 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, the daily positive numbers are moving down, may be from Oct-Nov, the Covid infected numbers may rise due to the ensuing festive seasons across the India, it depends on the vaccination drive, around 94.70 crores vaccinations are used till now.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has traded in range bound between $80 to $75 per barrel with upward bias and hovering around $79.50, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to sell above Rs.102-105 mark without any major changes, since the International Crude price hovering near $80 and USD Vs.INR is also hovering above $75, hence, the oil marketing companies started to increase Petrol and Diesel prices last week.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has gone up from the last week levels, i.e., 26.84 times and  settled on Friday at 27.40 times. The lower PE valuation around 26-27 times, is due to the changes have been made in the PE calculation from 01st Apr'21 i.e., from an existing pattern of standalone profit, to the consolidated profit and Nifty50 stocks Q4 good numbers when compared with last year at the same quarter.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a positive zone, out of 2129 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5979 stocks advanced and 4254 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 1.41 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR seen in a positive zone at 1.08 times with 129 advances and 120 declines, this data infers that, more buying interest seen in the NSE listed stocks, rather than Nifty50 stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty future was settled at a premium 4.90 points from the last week discount level 1.85 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as of Friday at 12717100 i.e.,254342 contracts, when compared with the last week levels 12018150 i.e., 240363 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has come down to 0.82, from the last week level i.e., 0.92, the maximum open interest seen in 17900 PUT option and 18200 CALL options, it indicates the Nifty may face a strong hurdle near 18100-18200 and 17900-17800 levels, may act as a strong support.

This week Nifty Trend: Nifty Index as written last week, the index traded with a consolidation mode between 17600-17950 and closed well above 17790 levels. By considering the above mentioned micro, macro data and other factors I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note to test 17920-17945, subject to the Asian indices movement if, moves above 17945 then, the northward rally may lift the Index to test till 18020-18080-18110-18135-18165-18195-18250 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 17950-18040 levels, then the weakness may drag till 17840-17790 further, sell-off below 17790 then, the Index may re-visit 17665-17610-17550-17450-17435 levels very soon.  

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested in Nifty50 stocks last week around 17500 levels, start to book profit partially for 5-10% around 18000-18200 then, keep the rest till 18300-18500 levels in the Nifty50 stocks.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading