For the weekend  14th Aug'20-Friday... Updated on 09.08.20, Sunday : 9.00 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and wriiten last week, opened with negative note near our support band i.e, 11030-10990, made a open at 11057.25 thereafter, the sell-off cum profit booking dragged the Index till 10882.25 on Monday itself, then the Index moved up from Tuesday, once again till 11256.80 and closed the week at 11214.05 with a gain by 140.60 points i.e.,1.27%. As written in the last week outlook, the Index tested our support level 10895 and took support at 10882, but unable to move down further and moved up once again till 11256 and able to close well above 11150-11200 levels. 

Key Events: This week major events expected are, the domestic data such as IIP and Inflation, though the Govt of India, not released the IIP data since April to July'20, we do not know whether, they will relase the IIP data this month by 12th August or not. Further the India Inc., Q1-June'20 remaining results are also plays an important role in the Nifty index further movement, the front runners around 625 out of 4268 companies already, announced their results as on 08th Aug'20, the Net profit witnessed a decline by -11.70% on QoQ and -56.80% on YoY basis, if the decline rate moves up further then, the Index may witness more selling pressure at the higher levels since, the Price Earnings-PE is already peaked to the all time high 30.72 times, as on Friday. Though the current valuation peaked to the high level, but the Index rather coming down, it is trying to move northwards, this is contrary to the real fact and looks sidelined and taking all the negative sentiments, as a positive one and not inclined to move down, further it is moving upward, whenever the global sentiments are positive, it infers and shows, that the Index is trying to test 11375-11440-11530-11620 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Trend: By considering the above facts, the Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 10th Aug'20, on a positiive note (subject to the Asian market move) to test 11240-11255, if able to open, surpass and sustain above 11255 then, the immediate resistance seen at 11340-11375-11440-11535-11625 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 11125-11060, any weakness below 11060 then, the Index may re-test 10990-10950-10860-10770-10560 levels.

Special Mention: The current trading pattern in the Nifty Index move is unusual, it shows the Index trying to fill the first gap down level made from 11536.70 on 27th Feb'20, subject to surpass 11255 moves, sustian and closes above 11340-11375 levels by this week. Any sell-off is possible only at the higher levels i.e, 11375-11440-11535 levels, or further weakness at the low levels lies below 11060-10860, any down move from 10860 and continuous close below 10860 then, the Index may try to re-test 10750-10640-10560 levels in the near term. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, Nifty Metal Index ganied (+7.78%), Nifty Auto gained (+3.77%) and Nifty FMCG sector gained(+2%) helped the Nifty Index to sustain at 11200 levels further the banking sector gained marginally by 0.53% and Nifty IT sector lost marginally by -0.37%.

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week bought to the tune of Rs.9496.80 crores on the net basis whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, sold every day to the tune of Rs.2133.81 crores on the net basis in the equity segment, this being a major reason coupled with RBI accommodative stand in the recent bi-monthly polcy meet, helped the Index to close in positive bias. 

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader may exercise due caution, especially this week at the higher levels i.e 11340-11375 if moves once again and not able to close above 11340-11375 levels, to exit the position, if any and invest again in the equity segment especially in the Nifty 50 stocks, when the Nifty Index comes near 10860-10750-10560 levels, for a short term gain around 10-15%. This is a traders market, to trade for short term gains, rather to wait for long term basis.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading.