For the weekend 18th Jun'21-Friday... Updated on 13.06.21, Sunday-11.21 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 15725.10, thereafter it moved to 15800 on Wednesday and made a weekly low at 15566.90, further it moved till 15835.55 on Friday, closed the week at 15799.35 on a positive note with weekly gain 129.10 points i.e., 0.82%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices traded on positive bias, except Nifty Pharma, Nifty Bank & Nifty Financial Services. On a positive side, Nifty IT was leading with the weekly gain by 4.52%, followed by Nifty Energy gained 2.11%, Nifty FMCG gained 1.45%, Nifty Metal gained 1.27%, Nifty Realty gained 1.14% and Nifty Auto gained 0.28%. On the other hand, the Nifty Pharma index lost -4.22%, Nifty Bank lost -0.69% and Nifty Financial Services lost -0.63%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain by 2.93% and Nifty Smallcap Index closed with a weekly gain by 2.90%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week continued as a net buyer in the Equity segment, they bought to the tune of Rs.1738.22 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net seller, they sold to the tune of Rs.-823.54 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds inflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $72.96, made a weekly low at  $72.74 thereafter, it moved up and made weekly high till $73.30 and closed with a positive note at $73.23. This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $73.30-73.45, it moves and sustain above $73.45 then the USD may re-test $73.59-73.75-73.86-73.99-74.07-74.17 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $72.90-72.74, then it may re-visit $72.63-72.58-72.45-72.33 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front except US FED meet is expected on 16th Jun-Wednesday, on the domestic front except the Indian Inflation data, which is expected on 14th Jun-Monday and the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) remaining corporate results and Covid19 developments, we must watch this week. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results, so far 1418 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q4 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit continued in the positive zone by 28.40% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 1418 companies were at Rs.16,49,079.30 crore Vs. Rs.15,44,426.80 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 317.60% i.e., Rs.176,364.70 crore, last year these 1418 companies made a Net profit Rs.42,234.10 crore, the major changes in the Net Profit on YoY basis, solely based on the lower base effect in March' 2020.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive below 1 lakh, the number of active cases now at 10,80,690, the death toll rose to 367,081 the daily death rate stands at 3000-4000 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation may start from second week June'21, if the daily positive numbers are down steadily, maybe from July-August the normalcy may return, subject to the vaccination drive happens in a full swing.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved up from $680 to 71 per barrel and hovering around $70 the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to move up, major Metro cities the petrol price crossed Rs.100 mark, since the International Crude price is steady at $66-67 and USD rates also hovering around $73 as against INR.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come gone up from the last week level, i.e., 29.06 times and settled on Friday at 29.30 times. The lower PE valuation around 30 times, is due to the India Inc.,Q4 good numbers.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in positive zone, last week out of 2058 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5775 stocks were advanced and 4208 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.37 times, in the overall NSE listed stocks, especially in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 1.07 times with 128 advances and 120 declines, this data infers that the good buying seen in NSE listed stocks then the Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures was settled at premium by 17.95 points points from the last week premium level 30.60 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen in 11800875 when compared with the last week level i.e.,10524300. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) maintained at the same level 0.85, the maximum PUT open interest was seen in at 15500 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 15800 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support this week 15500 and 15800 may act as strong resistance, above 15800, then next hurdle seen at 15900-16000, since CALL writing seen at 15900-16000 strike price and any weakness below 15500, then 15400-15100 levels may act as a strong support., the PUT writing seen till 15300 strike price.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty Index on the opening move, may witness negative opening near 15780-15755, subject to the Asian Indices movement on Monday,  if the Index moves below 15780-15750 then the it may test 15650-15566-15500-15432-15375 levels. On the other hand the Index able to move and sustain above 15800-15835 then the Index may try to test 15865-15920-15955-15995-16035-16070 levels in the near term.  

Special Mention: The IIP data for April'21 was partially released by the National Statistical Office-NSO, the data given for April'21, the IIP stands at 134.40% when compared with last month i.e., March'21 was at 24.40%, the complete break up i.e., sector wise it was not released, due to the lockdown came into force by mid week of April'21. The Covid further developments and India Inc. Q4 remaining results are set the further direction on the Nifty Index movement this week, the Nifty Index last four consecutive weeks, moved up and made a new all time till 15835 and closed week above 15780 for the first time, if the Index able to surpass & close above 15780-15800 for an another two trading sessions, may lift the Nifty Index till 15920-16000-16070 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index fails to move above 15800-15920, then the weakness cum minor profit booking may drag the Index till 15565-15435-15200 levels very soon. The India Vix-Volatility Index continuously declined to the lowest level till 11.94, it shows the Intra volatility may jump to the higher levels with higher volatility at any time, which infers the Nifty index may see some sharp decline till 15400-15050 levels or it may trade with broad range consolidation between 15450-16000 levels.

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader, who re-invested near 15400 in Nifty50 stocks, start profit booking at 15800-16000 levels or 15-25% return on the stocks invested and wait for the price correction till 15500-15200 levels to re-invest again in Nifty50 stocks for a short term perspective.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading