For the weekend 24th Sep'21-Friday... Updated on 19.09.21, Sunday-6.30 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 17363.55; on Monday, it made a weekly low 17269.15 thereafter, it moved up throughout the week, made a high on Friday 17792.95, the minor profit booking dragged till 17537.65 and closed the week at 17585.15 on a positive note with a weekly gain 215.90 points i.e., 1.24%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices were closed with a positive bias, except Nifty Metal and Nifty Realty, on the positive side, the Nifty Bank index was leading with a weekly gain 3.08%, followed by the Nifty IT gained 2.43%, Nifty Auto gained 2.36%, Nifty Financial Services gained 1.74%, Nifty Infra gained 1.63%, Nifty Energy gained 1.40%, Nifty FMCG gained 0.54%, and Nifty Pharma gained marginally by 0.18%. On the other hand, Nifty Metal was leading with a weekly loss -1.24%, followed by Nifty Realty -0.97%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain 1.74%; as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also, closed on a positive note  with a weekly gain 0.94%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, turned as a net buyer in the Equity segment, this week they bought to the tune of Rs.6476.22 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, turned as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.2895.91 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds inflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $73.52, made a weekly high $73.78 on the opening move; thereafter, it moved down, made a weekly low $73.33 on Thursday and moved up once again on Friday, closed the week with a positive note at $73.69. This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $73.78-73.87, if moves and sustain above $73.87 then, the USD may re-test $73.90-74.00-74.13-74.25-74.33-74.39-74.45 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $73.64-73.57 then, it may re-visit $73.50-73.43-73.37-73.33-73.20-73.05-72.90 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, except US FED Meet which is scheduled on 22nd Sep'21; as well as on the domestic front, only the remaining India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results and Covid third wave developments, we must watch this week. 

Q1-2021-2022 Earnings: The India Inc. Q1(Apr-Jun'21) corporate results, so far 4015 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q1 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit seen a drop and continued in the negative zone by -14.10% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 4015 companies were at Rs.173,116.50 crore, as against in the Q4 (Jan-Mar'21) the Net profit seen Rs.201,500.80 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 414.30%, last year these 4015 companies made a Net profit Rs.33,660.10 crore. Till last week, almost all major corporate companies declared their Q1(2021-2022) results, this week the rest of the midcap/small cap sector companies will declare their Q1 numbers.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed a flat trend, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive around 30k, the number of active cases now at 332,158 the death toll rose to 444,838 the daily death rate has moved down around 300 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, the daily positive numbers are moving down, may be from Sep-Oct, the Covid infected numbers may rise due to the ensuing festive seasons across the India, it depends on the vaccination drive, around 80.44 crores vaccinations are used till date.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has traded in range bound between $70 to $73 per barrel and hovering around $71.50-72.50, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to sell above Rs.100-102 mark without any major changes, though the International Crude price hovering near $70, but the USD Vs.INR is hovering at $73-74, hence, the oil marketing companies reduced petrol price and Diesel price marginally.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has gone up from the last week level i.e., 26.61 times and  settled on Friday at 26.93 times. The lower PE valuation around 25-27 times, is due to the changes have been made in the PE calculation from 01st Apr'21 i.e., from an existing pattern of standalone profit to the consolidated profit and Nifty50 stocks Q4 good numbers when compared with last year at the same quarter.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a neutral zone, out of 2101 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5062 stocks were advanced and 5038 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1 time; whereas, the Nifty50 stocks ADR continued in the positive zone at 1.30 times with 140 advances and 108 declines, this data infers that, more buying interest seen in the Nifty50, rather than, NSE listed stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty future was settled at a premium 18 points from the last week discount level 4.95 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI as of Friday at 14449900 i.e.,288998 contracts, when compared with the last week level 14772750 i.e., 295455 contracts. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has come down from 0.92 to 0.88, the maximum open interest seen in 17700 PUT option and 17700-17900 CALL option, it indicates this week, the Nifty may face a strong hurdle near 17700 and 17500-17400 levels may act as a strong support, further resistance lies at 17900-18000 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: Nifty Index as written last week, took support near 17300-17255 and reached near our resistance levels, i.e., 17750-17825 and closed well above 17436 levels. By considering the above mentioned micro, macro data and other factors I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a flat to positive note to test 17585-17645, subject to the Asian indices movement if, moves above 17645 then, it may try to test till 17700-17750-17800-17860-17935-18000-18020 levels in the near term. On the other hand, the Index may take support 17540-17510-17460 levels, any weakness below 17460 then, the Index may re-visit 17435-17380-17260-17225-17175-17125-17055 levels very soon, the technical sell-off may intensify if, moves below 17500-17435 levels, trade with due caution at the higher levels and adopt the buy on dips strategy till 17450-17260.

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who booked profit near 17700-17800 levels, start to re-invest near 17500-17250 partially in the Nifty50 stocks, especially Auto and Baking stocks with a short term perspective to gain a profit 5-15%.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading