For the weekend 04th Feb'22-Friday... Updated on 30.01.22, Sunday-06.03 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a negative note at 17575.15 on Monday, it made a weekly high 17599.40 and moved down, made a weekly low 16836.80 on Tuesday, further it moved up till 17373.90 and closed the week at 17617.15 on a negative note with a weekly loss -515.20 points, i.e., -2.92%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices closed on the negative side, except Nifty Bank Index, on the negative side the Nifty IT lead with a weekly loss -6.11%, followed by the Nifty Realty lost -5.20%, Nifty Metal lost -4.43%, Nifty Intra -2.40%, Nifty Healthcare lost -2.14%, Nifty Financial Services lost -2.07%, Nifty Pharma lost -1.96%, Nifty FMCG lost -1.70%, Nifty Energy lost -1.51%, and Nifty Auto lost marginally lost by -0.59%. On the other side, Nifty Bank closed on a positive note with a marginal weekly gain 0.31%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -2.48%, as well as, the Nifty Smallcap Index also closed on a negative note with a weekly loss -3.72%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, this week they sold to the tune of Rs.22158.15 crore on the net basis; but, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.10849.40 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not. 

USD vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.42, it made a weekly low $74.32 on Monday; thereafter, it moved up, made a weekly high $75.35 on Friday and closed on a positive note $75 with a weekly gain 0.58 points i.e., 0.78%. This week, the USD vs INR should move above $75.04-75.12 if moves and sustain above $75.12 then, the USD may re-test $75.23-75.34-75.44-75.57-75.63-75.70-75.80-75.92 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.83-74.74 then, it may re-visit $74.63-74.56-74.43-74.32-74.21-74.09-74.03 levels in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front; as well as, on the domestic front, except the Union Budget is expected to be tabled on 01st Feb'22 and India Inc. Q3 Oct-Dec'21) remaining corporate earnings.

Q2-(Jul-Sep'2021) Earnings: The India Inc. Q3(Oct-Dec'21) corporate results, so far 579 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q3 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit has been maintaining on the positive zone by 5.60% when compared with last quarter, i.e., the Net Profit of these 579 companies were at Rs.97,652.10 crore, as against in the Q2 (Jul-Sep'21) the Net profit seen Rs.92,472.40 crore. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth 23.80%, last year these 579 companies made a Net profit Rs.78,879.80 crore. Major Corporates started to declare their Q3 results, this week we can expect the results from DLF, Exide Industries, HPCL, IOC, Tata Motors, Jindal Steel, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Ltd, Jubliant Food, Zee Entertainment,ITC, GAIL, Titan, SBI, Bata India, Escorts and other midcap and small cap companies also will declare their results.

Covid19: The Covid-19 spread started to move southward direction, as of today the country seen everyday covid positive cases has come down to around 2.35 lakhs, the number of active cases now at 1884,937, the death toll rose to 494,409, the daily death rate has moved up above 890 in a day. As on date the total vaccination status stood around 165.70 crore on that, the first dose numbers are 89.74 crore, second dose 70.63 crore and between 15-18 years, they got the vaccination around 4.56 crore. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil price has moved up from $83-88 per barrel and hovering above $87 and USD vs INR also, trading near $75, though the International Crude price moved from $67 to $87 per barrel, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices selling without major changes for a couple of month, due to ensuing states election in UP, Punjab.Uttarkhand, Manipur and Goa, all these elections may be held during Feb & Mar'22.

Price Earnings & India Vix: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has moved down, from the last week levels, i.e., 24.29 times and settled on Friday at 23.10 times. The India Vix (Volatility Index) last week, has gone up from the previous week levels, i.e., 18.89 to 20.70, this week too, the intra volatility may be at a higher levels between 18-24 levels.

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio & Average Daily Volume(ADV): Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week continued in the negative zone, out of 2194 stocks traded daily on an average basis, 3713 stocks advanced and 4883 stocks declined, the ADR maintained 0.76 times; also, the Nifty50 stocks ADR also, continued in the negative zone at 0.72 times with 84 advances and 116 declines, this data infers that, the profit booking  seen in both Nifty50 and NSE listed stocks, whereas, the Nifty Bank Index ADR moved to the positive zone at 1.14 times with 25 advances & 22 declines, it infers that, the Nifty Bank not sold-off and seen some value buying in Banking stocks.

F&O Cues & PCR (Put/Call Ratio): The Nifty Futures last week settled on a premium 23.70 points from the previous week premium level 0.05 points. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has moved down marginally from the last week level 0.90 to 0.89. The more open interest seen 17100-16900 PUT option and 17200-17400 Call Option, any further move is possible only by moving above 17400 to test 17600 or if moves below 16900 then, the Index may re-test 16800-16600 levels.

This week Nifty Trend: The weak global cues, especially in the USA, the Dow Jones witnessed a sell-off continued last week due to the FED rate hike fear, the IT stocks moved down, that was reflected in our Indian stock market too, the Nifty IT index also dropped over 6% last week, further the much awaited giant IPO i.e., LIC, which is expected to come before Mar'22, these things have ignited the sell-off cum profit booking and dragged the Nifty Index last  two consecutive weeks from the threshold resistance zone 18350 and took supprort near our threshold support levels at 16835 levels, by considering the macro and micro data; I, conclude the weekly outlook that, the Nifty Index on Monday may open on a positive note near 17150-17190, subject to the Asian indices movement, if the index moves above 17190 then it may try to re-test 17475-17540-17600-17640-17685-17705-17750-17770 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index takes not moves above 17190-17220 and moves below 17055-16995-16965 then the Index may try to re-visit 16900-16836-16800-16745-16690-16620-16550-16480-16410 levels in the near term. 

This week Nifty Bank Trend: Last week Nifty Bank opened in 37601.95, on opening move, it made a weekly low 36375.35 thereafter, it moved up rest of the week, made a weekly high 38421.70 and closed at 37689.40 with a weekly gain 115.10 points, i.e., 0.31%, this week, the Nifty Bank Index must move above 37900-38130-38175 levels, further move above 38175 then, it may try to re-test 38240-38325-38420-38570-38650-38855-39020-39180-39340-39530 levels. On the other hand, if the Index unable to move above 37900-38130-38175, further it moves below 37420-37225 then, the Index may try to re-visit 37580-37470-37320-37150-36960-36670-36520-36375 levels. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader those who invested near 17150-16850 levels, start book profit partially near 17300-17450-17600 or if the stocks give profit between 6-9% then book partially.

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