For the weekend  28th Aug'20-Friday... Updated on 23.08.20, Sunday : 1.45 pm

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index as expected and wriiten last week, opened with positive note beyond our resistance band i.e, 11210-11260, made a open at 11248.65 thereafter, it took support near 11444.50 on the same day then, the Index moved up and peaked 11460.35 and got sold-off on Thursday till 11289.80 and closed the week at 11371.60 with a gain 193.20 points i.e.,1.73%. As written in the last week outlook, the Index tested and moved above our threshold resistance level 11435 and unable to sustain above this level, also closed well below 11375 last week. 

Key Events: This week no major key events are expected either in the domestic front or in the global front, except the F&O expiry, the Intraday volatility may rise this week. The India Inc., Q1-June'20 remaining results are also plays an important role in the Nifty index further movement, as of 22nd Aug'20, around 1610 out of 4268 companies already, announced their results, the Net profit witnessed a decline by -1.90% on QoQ and -56.10% on YoY basis, the decline rate has come down from -15% to -1.90, we must wait and watch other's results, the Index may witness more selling pressure at the higher levels since, the current Price Earnings-PE premium valuation is already peaked with the all time high 32.08 times, as on Friday. 

This week Nifty Trend: By considering the above facts, the Nifty index may open on Monday i.e., 24th Aug'20, on a positiive note,  subject to the Asian market move to test 11420-11440, if able to open, surpass and sustain above 11440 then, the immediate resistance seen at 11460-11485-11535-11570-11625-11640 levels. On the other hand, the immediate support lies at 11290-11260 any weakness below 11260 then, the Index may re-test 11220-11180-11145-11111-11060 levels.

Special Mention: It looks the Nifty index may try to consolidate between 11535-11064 this week, whenever it moves higher, convincing volume is not happening, the Intra trading range also narrows to 60-90 points, it shows the weakness at the higher levels, at the same time it is not inclined to go down, no major profit booking is also not happening at the lower levels. We studied the over all Nifty 50 stocks, around 9-10 stocks viz., IT segment (Infosys, TCS & HCL) , Pharma (Cipla & Dr Reddy) , FMCG (HUL & Nestle), Telecom (Bharti Airtel) and Reliance Industies were moved above their all time high and trading above Jan'20 levels, which helped the Nifty Index so far to test 11460, around 10-12 stocks are just nearing the March peak levels, all others around 30 stocks trading above 10-20% from the March panic bottom levels. It seems the Nifty Index may try to fill the 27th Feb'20 gap down level i.e, 11537 either this week or first week of Sep'20.  

Sector wise performance: Last week, Nifty Realty Index ganied (+8.18%), Nifty Metal, Nifty Energy, Nifty Auto & Nifty Bank gained 4.90%, 4.48%, 3.35% & 2.86% respectively. Nifty FMCG(1.17%) & Nifty IT(0.24%) marginally gained, these sectors helped the Nifty Index to test 11460 and hold the same at 11375 levels further the Nifty Pharma sector last the momentum and closed on a negative note with weekly loss by -0.22%.

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week bought to the tune of Rs.2068.15 crores on the net basis whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, sold every day to the tune of Rs.2117.01 crores on the net basis in the equity segment.

Tading Strategy: The Investor/trader may exercise due caution, especially this week at the higher levels i.e 11460-11535-11630 if the Nify Index moves these levels and close above 11375-11440 then, to exit the position and invest again in the equity segment especially in the Nifty 50 stocks, when the Nifty Index comes near 11060-10885 levels, for a short term gain around 10-15%. This is a traders market, to trade for short term gains, rather to wait for long term basis.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading.