For the weekend 09th Jul'21-Friday... Updated on 04.07.21, Sunday-10.32 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on a positive note at 15915.35; on opening move, it made open and high as same level i.e., 15915.65, thereafter it moved down throughout the week, made a weekly low 15635.95 on Friday and closed the week at 15722.20 on a negative note with a weekly loss -138.15 points i.e., -0.87%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, almost all the major sectoral indices traded on a negative bias, except Nifty Pharma & Nifty FMCG. On a negative side, Nifty Metal was leading with a weekly loss by -1.80%, followed by Nifty Financial Services lost -1.70%, Nifty Bank lost -1.57%, Nifty Energy lost -1.39%, Nifty IT lost -0.69%, Nifty Realty lost -0.56%, finally the Nifty Auto lost marginally by -0.20%. On the other hand, the Nifty Pharma gained by 3.27% and Nifty FMCG gained 0.58%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on a positive note with a weekly gain by 0.47% and Nifty Smallcap Index also closed with a weekly gain by 2.19%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week, continued as a net seller in the Equity segment, they sold to the tune of Rs.5416.84 crore on the net basis; and, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net buyer, they bought to the tune of Rs.6418.30 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds outflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $74.19, made a weekly low at $74.13 thereafter, it moved up and made a weekly high till $74.90 and closed the week with a positive note at $74.53, This week, the USD Vs INR should move above $74.53-74.68, if moves and sustain above $74.68 then, the USD may re-test $74.90-74.95-75.11-75.27-75.40-75.65 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves below $74.46-74.35, then it may re-visit $74.25-74.13-74.03-73.92-73.84-73.77-73.68 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as on the domestic front, except the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) remaining corporate results, India PMI Services data and Covid19 developments, we must watch this week. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results, so far 3612 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q4 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit continued in the positive zone by 47.50% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 3612 companies were at Rs.204,960 crore Vs. Rs.138,977.70 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 682.90% i.e., Rs.204,960 crore, last year these 3612 companies made a Net profit Rs.26,178.20 crore, the major changes in the Net Profit on YoY basis, solely based on the lower base effect, compares with March' 2020 to March'2021.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive below 50k, the number of active cases now at 485,350 the death toll rose to 402,005 the daily death rate also declined below 1000 in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation already started, if the daily positive numbers are down steadily, maybe from July-August the normalcy may return, subject to the vaccination drive happens in a full swing and the third Covid Delta Plus wave of Covid19.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved up from $72 to $76 per barrel and hovering around $75, the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to move up, all the Metro cities, the petrol price crossed Rs.100 mark, since the International Crude price is steady at $74-75 and USD rates also moved up near $75 and hovering above $74 as against INR.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level, i.e., 29.21 times and settled on Friday at 28.33 times. The lower PE valuation around 28-29 times, is due to the India Inc.,Q4 good numbers.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, in the overall NSE listed stocks, last week seen in a positive zone, out of 2055 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5076 stocks were advanced and 4873 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.04 times. At the same time, in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 0.77 times with 108 advances and 141 declines, this data infers that, the sell-off seen due to profit booking in Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty future was settled at premium by 19.35 points from the last week premium level 27.65 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen in 9298950 when compared with the last week level i.e.,9612100. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) has gone up from 0.84 to 0.87, the maximum PUT open interest seen in 15600 to 15400 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 16100 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support this week at 15600 and 16100 may act as strong resistance, above 16100, further the CALL writing seen at 16200-16300 strike price and any weakness below 15600, then 15400 levels may act as a strong support.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty Index on Monday, may open with a positive note near 15755-15780, subject to the Asian Indices movement, if the Index moves above 15780 then the it may test 15835-15880-15915, further move above 15915 then, the Index may test 15950-15995-16024-16070 levels. On the other hand, the Index not able to move and sustain above 15780-15835 then, it may try to re-visit 15740-15700 levels, further weakness below 15700 then, the Index may visit 15670-15630-15610-15560-15505-15450-15432 levels in the near term.  

Special Mention: It looks, there won't be any immediate major price correction in the Indian Indices, as well as, on the Global Indices too. In July'21, there is an another US FED interest rate policy meet, is scheduled on 28th July, we must watch, the FED statements about their Economy and Interest rate before this meet or on the policy meet, it may influence/affect the Global stock market. On the domestic front, our India Inc Q1-(April to June'21), corporate performance, may decide further move on the Indian Indices, especially, the Nifty Index, I expect, the Index may trade in a range bound move between 16100-15400 for some more trading sessions, further trend may emerge based on the global sentiment and the India Inc, Q1 numbers. If, the Nifty index moves below 15450-15430, the weakness cum profit booking, may drag the Index till 15250-15050 and any up move above 15920-16024 with a wider participation and good volume, may take the Nifty index to test 16070-16220-16350 levels.

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader may use the buy on dips strategy at 15600-15400 levels with a short term perspective to gain 5-15% on Nifty50 stocks; especially, in the Nifty Auto, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Bank sector and book profit at 15900-16000 levels.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading