For the weekend 04th Jun'21-Friday... Updated on 30.05.21, Sunday-9.00 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on positive note at 15211.35 made a weekly low 15145.45 on Monday, thereafter, the Index moved up throughout the week and made a weekly high at 15469.65 and closed the week at 15435.65 on a positive note with weekly gain 260.35 points i.e., 1.72%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices traded on positive bias, except Nifty Pharma & Nifty Metal. On the positive side, Nifty IT was leading with the weekly gain by 3.90%, followed by Nifty Realty gained 3.41%, Nifty Auto gained 1.90%, Nifty Bank gained 1.54%, Nifty Energy gained 1.24%, Nifty Financial Services gained 0.95%, Nifty FMCG gained marginally by 0.58%. On the other hand, the Nifty Metal & Nifty Pharma marginally lost by -0.85% & -0.43% respectively. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on positive note with a weekly gain by 1.11% and Nifty Smallcap Index closed with a weekly gain by 1.85%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week turned as a net buyer in the Equity segment, they bought to the tune of Rs.2039.42 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, turned as a net seller, they sold to the tune of Rs.-322.27 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds inflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $72.91, made weekly high at $73.06 thereafter, it moved down throughout the week till $72.33 and closed with a negative note at $72.38. This week, the USD Vs INR should take support at $72.33-72.26-72.13, it moves and sustain below $72.13 then the USD may re-visit $72.05-71.91-71.76-71.54-71.33 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves above $72.50-72.55 then the up move above $72.55, may take the USD to $72.77-72.84-72.90-73.06-73.15-73.26-73.55 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front, on the domestic front, the RBI MPC meeting is scheduled from 02nd-04th Jun'21, the final outcome may be released on 04th Jun-Friday by 10.00 am, the RBI may expect to maintain the status quo in the Repo Rate (4%) and Reverse Repo rate (3.35%), further events like Q4(Jan-Mar'21) GDP numbers is expexted on 31st May-Monday, the Q4 GDP will see a marginal increase from the Q3 numbers i.e., 0.40% to 1.50-2.50% levels, further the Manufacturing PMI data for May is expected on 01st Jun-Tuesday and Services PMI data for May is expected on 03rd Jun-Thursday, finally the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) remaining corporate results and Covid19 developments, we must watch this week. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results, so far 999 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q4 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit continued in the positive zone by 21.80% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 999 companies were at Rs.14,14,844.00 crore Vs. Rs.13,20,910.20 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 232.30% i.e., Rs.160,555.30, last year these 999 companies made a Net profit Rs.48,320.70 crore, the major changes in the Net Profit on YoY basis, purely based on the lower base effect in March' 2020.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continusely been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive between 2-1.50 lakhs, the number of active cases now at 22,28,724, the death toll rose to 322,512 with less than 3700 fatalities in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments this week. 

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved up from $64 to 67.50 per barrel and hovering around $66-66.50 the domestic Petrol & Disel prices continued to move up, most of the Metro cities the Pertrol price touched Rs.100 mark, since the International Crude price is steady at $66-67 and USD rates also hoveing around $72-73 as against INR.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come down from the last week level i.e., 29.48 times and settled on Friday at 28.98 times. The lower PE valuation is due to the India Inc.,Q4 good numbers.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in positive zone, last week out of 2056 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5294 stocks were advanced and 4610 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.15 times, in the overall Nifty stocks, especially in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 1.70 times with 156 advances and 92 declines, this data infers that the good buying seen in Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures was settled at premium by 28.20 points points from the last week premium level 30.90 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen at 10394850 when compared with the last week level i.e.,9934275. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) moved to 0.85, the maximum PUT open interest was seen in at 15500 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 15100 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support this week 15100 and 15500 may act as strong resistance, above 15500, then next hurdle seen at 15600-15800 and any weakness below 15100, then 14900-14700 levels may act as a strong support.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty index on the opening move, may try to test 15490-15550, if the Index moves above 15550 then the it may test 15600-15645-15690-15730-15780-15850-15920 levels. On the other hand the Index fails to move above 15490-15550, then the weakness may drag the Index till 15365-15250-15140-15065-14985-14885 levels in the near term.  

Special Mention: The RBI MPC stance on the economy, Q4 GDP data, Covid further developments and India Inc. Q4 remaining results are set the further direction on the Nifty Index movement this week, the Nifty Index last week surpassed the all time high i.e.,15431 and closed well above this crucial level, if the Index able to close above 15431 for three consecutive trading sessions, then the Index may reach 15600-15780-15920 levels in the near term, the only hitch the Index witnessing is the convincing volume at the higher levels, which is not happening, the lower participation at the higher levels may put pressure for some profit booking coupled with a technical sell-off till 15050-14900, is possible very soon. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader, who re-invested near 14800-14600 in Nifty50 stocks, start profit booking at 15450-15600-15750 levels or 10-20% return on the stocks invested.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading