For the weekend 11th Jun'21-Friday... Updated on 06.06.21, Sunday-10.41 am

Last week Nifty trend: Nifty Index last week, opened on flat to positive note at 15437.75 made a weekly low 15374 on Monday, thereafter, the Index moved up till 15660 on Tuesday, once again the brief technical sell-off dragged the Index till 14549.55, then the Index further moved up and made a weekly high at 15733.60 on Friday, closed the week at 15670.25 on a positive note with weekly gain 234.60 points i.e., 1.52%. 

Sector wise performance: Last week, all the major sectoral indices traded on positive bias, except Nifty IT. On a positive side, Nifty Pharma was leading with the weekly gain by 8.38%, followed by Nifty Realty gained 6.69%, Nifty Metal gained 5.61%, Nifty Energy gained 4.09%, Nifty Auto gained 2.15%, Nifty Financial Services gained 1.51%, Nifty FMCG & Nifty Bank were gained marginally by 0.71% & 0.43% respectively. On the other hand, the Nifty IT index closed on a negative note with the marginal weekly loss about -0.46%. Likewise, Nifty Midcap Index closed on positive note with a weekly gain by 3.36% and Nifty Smallcap Index closed with a weekly gain by 2.39%. 

Institutional Investors trading data: The Foreign Institutional Investors-FII's last week continued  as a net buyer in the Equity segment, they bought to the tune of Rs.5462.20 crore on the net basis; whereas, the Domestic Institutional Investors-DII's, continued as a net seller, they sold to the tune of Rs.-801.95 crore on the net basis, as per the data forwarded to the SEBI, we must watch the FIIs/FPIs behaviour this week, whether they continue the funds inflow or not.

USD Vs INR: The USD Vs INR opened near $72.39, made weekly low at $72.36 thereafter, it moved up till $73.32, further it moved down till $72.71 and closed with a positive note at $72.93. This week, the USD Vs INR should take support at $72.61-72.33, it moves and sustain below $72.33 then the USD may re-visit $72.22-72.10-71.89-71.76-71.68-71.40 levels. On the other hand, if the USD moves above $73.04-73.16, then it may test $73.25-73.36-73.47-73.58-73.75-73.96 in the near term. 

Key Events: No major key events are expected this week on the global front as well as, on the domestic front except the Indian IIP data, which is expected on 11th Jun-Friday and the India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) remaining corporate results and Covid19 developments, we must watch this week. 

Q4 Earnings: The India Inc. Q4(Jan-Mar'21) corporate results, so far 1200 out of 4248 companies were declared their Q4 results, on a QoQ basis the Net profit continued in the positive zone by 17.70% when compared with last quarter i.e, the Net Profit of these 1200 companies were at Rs.15,21,616.10 crore Vs. Rs.14,26,955.30 crore (Q3-Sep-Dec'20). Likewise, on a YoY basis, the Net profit seen positive growth about 237.40% i.e., Rs.168,022 crore, last year these 1200 companies made a Net profit Rs.49,795.30 crore, the major changes in the Net Profit on YoY basis, solely based on the lower base effect in March' 2020.

Covid19: The Covid-19 second wave has continuously been witnessed declining trend, as of today the country witnessed everyday covid positive between 2-1.50 lakhs, the number of active cases now at 14,77,779, the death toll rose to 346,759 with less than 3000 fatalities in a day. We will have to wait and see the further developments, the lockdown relaxation may start from second week June'21, if the daily positive numbers are down steadily, may be from July-August the normalcy may return, subject to the vaccination drive happens in a full swing.  

Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices moved up from $66.50 to 69.60 per barrel and hovering around $69 the domestic Petrol & Diesel prices continued to move up, some of the Metro cities the petrol price crossed Rs.100 mark, since the International Crude price is steady at $66-67 and USD rates also hovering around $73 as against INR.

Price Earnings: The price valuation i.e, Price Earnings ratio-PE, has come gone up from the last week level, i.e., 28.98 times and settled on Friday at 29.06 times. The lower PE valuation around 25-30 times, is due to the India Inc.,Q4 good numbers.  

Advance & Decline (ADR) Ratio: Market breadth, last week seen in positive zone, last week out of 2059 stocks were traded daily on an average basis, 5687 stocks were advanced and 4241 stocks were declined, the ADR maintained 1.34 times, in the overall NSE listed stocks, especially in Nifty50 stocks, the ADR has been maintained at 1.39 times with 145 advances and 104 declines, this data infers that the good buying seen in both NSE listed stocks and Nifty50 stocks. 

F&O Cues: The Nifty futures was settled at premium by 30.60 points points from the last week premium level 28.20 points, the Nifty Futures Open Interest-OI seen at 10524300 when compared with the last week level i.e.,1394850. The PCR(Put/Call Ratio) maintained at 0.85, the maximum PUT open interest was seen in at 15500 strike price and CALL open interest seen in 15900 strike price, it indicates that, the Nifty may take support this week 15500 and 15900 may act as strong resistance, above 15900, then next hurdle seen at 16000 and any weakness below 15500, then 15400-15100 levels may act as a strong support.

This week Nifty Trend: The Nifty Index on the opening move, may try to test 15680-15730, if the Index moves above 15730 then the it may test 15760-15780-15830-15850-15880-15920 levels. On the other hand the Index fails to move above 15730-15760-15780, then the weakness may drag the Index till 15660-15620-15585-15550-15475-15450-15432-15395-15335-15270-15205-15145 levels in the near term.  

Special Mention: The Q4 GDP data released last week, which was an expected line with a positive bias and moved0 from 0.40% to 1.60%, but the annual GDP contracts to -7.30, it infers that the growth projection for 2021-2022 may seen downward pressure and Q1 GDP also may move in to the negative territory, the RBI MPC meet, they maintained the status quo in the Repo rate with the same 4%, also maintained the accommdative monetary stance to tackle the Covid situation. The Covid further developments and India Inc. Q4 remaining results are set the further direction on the Nifty Index movement this week, the Nifty Index last three consecutive weeks, moved up and made a new all time at 15733 and closed week above 15660, if the Index able to surpass & close above 15780 may lift the Nifty Index till 15850-15920-16000 levels in the near term. On the other hand, if the Index fails to move above 15730-15780, then the weakness cum minor profit booking may drag the Index till 15435-15200-15050 levels very soon. 

Trading Strategy: The Investor/trader, who re-invested near 14800-14600 in Nifty50 stocks, start profit booking at 15750-15780-15850 levels or 15-25% return on the stocks invested.

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Wishing you for a safe and secured with profitable trading